Betting $100 Every Day for a Year: Day 82 (Sweet 16 Picks)

Hello friends.

Welcome to day 82 of betting $100 a day every day for a year and also happy Blue Jays opening day for those of you who celebrate, my fellow Canadians.

A strong night with my sweet 16 picks last night, 3 and 1 for a profit of $61.

96.

The only one we missed out on.

Uh, it was Nebraska who let Iowa pull away late.

Uh, but we hit the other three including Illinois to upset Houston.

All right, so, solid night.

That brings us to 148 wins, 166 losses, one push for a loss of $220.

93.

All right, let's move on to today.

Uh, no baseball picks.

Listen, we got a long summer of baseball picks coming up.

Uh, we got 4 Sweet 16 games tonight and since I did well with the Sweet 16 picks last night, I'm just gonna stick to the same strategy, uh, and just take, uh, 4 college basketball plays for tonight starting.

With my first pick of the night, Duke, -6.5, -110 against Saint John's.

Uh, we all know by now that Saint John's has a shooting issue.

Uh, they're not a good shooting team.

They're 197th in the country in effective field goal percentage.

What they can do, uh, is they can beat teams with their defense, but unfortunately, when they're taking on Duke, they don't have that defensive advantage.

Duke is actually even better defensively than Saint John's is.

The Blue Devils lead the country in defensive efficiency.

So that advantage gets nullified and then you look at shooting, you look at the offensive numbers and Duke has a pretty big advantage.

So, I'm gonna lay the 6.5 points on Duke tonight.

My 2nd play for tonight is $25 on Alabama plus $9.5 million against Michigan.

Uh, I think Michigan has a couple of weak points.

I think you can shoot the ball against, uh, shoot the 3 ball against this Michigan team and that's obviously gonna play a big role because Alabama leads the entire country in 3-point shot rate.

Also, Michigan outside the top 150 in turnovers per possession, turnover rate.

Uh, I think that's gonna keep them from really being able to pull away in this game.

I don't know if Alabama can pull off the upset, uh, but I'm gonna take the 9.5 points with the Crimson Tide and hope their 3-point shooting gets hot like it did against Texas Tech.

Then I have $25 on Michigan State, UConn under 134.

5.

Both these teams are better defensively and offensively.

They rank.

35th and 13th in, uh, uh, 35th and 66th in effective field goal percentage but then 13th and 40th in defensive efficiency.

Uh, they also ranked, uh, near the bottom, uh, of college basketball in adjusted tempo, 243rd and 30, 322nd.

Uh, and I also think both these legendary coaches, Dan Hurley, Tom Izzo, I think they're, they're gonna draw up some good defensive game plans.

So, I think we're gonna see a rock fight in that one tonight.

I'll go under 134.

5 between Michigan State and UConn.

And then we'll wrap things up with Iowa State -3.5, minus 110 against Tennessee.

$25 on that as well.

So $25 across the four bets tonight.

Uh, Iowa State was my pick to win the national championship heading into the tournament.

I'm still sticking to that.

Uh, I think Tennessee is great defensively.

I think their offensive numbers suffer a little bit, but what's most important is they're 219th in, in the country in turnovers per possession.

If they can't, Uh, if they can't stop turning the ball over, that's gonna cost them against Iowa State, uh, which that is their biggest strength is forcing turnovers.

So I think they win the turnover battle tonight.

They have the shooting to pull away.

I'm a little concerned about the free throw shooting.

Uh, they have a free throw rate of 66.7%. Not good.

Hopefully, that doesn't come back to haunt them at the end of the game.

Uh, but, uh, yeah, and in some other areas there's some big enough advantages .

I still think Iowa State for some reason is, uh, is being extremely undervalued in the, uh, betting market.

So I'm gonna take the Cyclones minus 3.5. Those are my 4 best bets for tonight.

Best luck to all of your bets.

Gamble or bless.

I'll see you tomorrow.