Warriors vs. Jazz Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 9

The Golden State Warriors have just a one-game lead for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference heading into Monday’s matchup with the tanking Utah Jazz.

Golden State fought hard but lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday, and it remains without superstar guard Steph Curry (knee) in this matchup.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are down Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler, Jusuf Nurkic and Vince Williams Jr. for the rest of the season while Lauri Markkanen (hip) is expected to miss this game.

So, the Warriors are still favored on the road on Monday.

Golden State has gone well under .500 without Curry this season, but the Jazz are just 2-8 in their last 10 and have fallen to 14th in the Western Conference.

Is this a bounce-back spot for the Dubs?

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Monday’s matchup.

Warriors vs. Jazz Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Warriors -6.5 (-102)
Jazz +6.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Warriors: -238
Jazz: +195

Total

227.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Warriors vs. Jazz How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 9
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Delta Center
How to Watch (TV): KJZZ, NBC Sports Bay Area
Warriors record: 32-31
Jazz record: 19-45

Warriors vs. Jazz Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

Jimmy Butler – out
Steph Curry – out
Seth Curry – probable
Al Horford – out
Moses Moody – out
Kristaps Porzingis – out
Will Richard – questionable

Jazz Injury Report

Jaren Jackson Jr. – out
Lauri Markkanen – out
Walker Kessler – out
Jusuf Nurkic – out
Vince Williams Jr. – out
Keyonte George – questionable

Warriors vs. Jazz Best NBA Prop Bets

Jazz Best NBA Prop Bet

Keyonte George 24+ Points (-105)

Keyonte George could be in for a big game on Monday, as his usage has skyrocketed with Lauri Markkanen out. I shared why I’m targeting him in this matchup in SI Betting’s best NBA props:

Utah Jazz guard Keyonte George is getting all the shots he can handle with Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. sidelined with injuries, and it’s led to some big scoring numbers.

George is averaging 24.0 points per game this season, and he’s taken 22, 24 and 17 shots from the field over his last three games, scoring 26, 30 and 22 points. George was just 4-for-17 his last time out, but he still finished with 17 points after he made 12 of his 13 attempts from the free-throw line.

I’m expecting similar usage for the Jazz youngster against Golden State, and this bet is simply a volume play. If George is going to take close to 20 shots, he’s a must bet at this number. So far this season, he has 28, 22 and 19 points in three meetings with the Warriors.

Warriors vs. Jazz Prediction and Pick

The Jazz are undoubtedly trying to lose at this point in the 2025-26 season, but I’m still buying them to cover as home underdogs on Monday.

Utah is 14-14 against the spread when set as a home underdog while the Warriors are just 6-11 as road favorites and 13-18 overall on the road.

Without Curry, Golden State is six games under .500 and has struggled mightily on the offensive end, averaging just 106.6 points per game.

To put the Warriors’ most recent 10-game stretch in perspective, we can look at some of their numbers compared to this Jazz team (2-8 in its last 10) that is actively sitting players and attempting to finish with a worse record to improve its chances at a top pick:

Last 10 Games

Net Rating

Warriors: -3.8 (19th)
Jazz: -4.6 (20th)

Defensive Rating

Warriors: 116.7 (23rd)
Jazz: 115.7 (20th)

Offensive Rating

Warriors: 112.9 (18th)
Jazz: 111.1 (19th)

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Warriors: 54.6% (13th)
Jazz: 52.0% (24th)

Utah is still the lesser team this season – especially when looking at the team’s season-long defensive metrics – but not by as much as you’d think recently. Given Golden State’s offensive issues, I think Utah can hang around to cover on Monday night.

Pick: Jazz +6.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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