Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 23

Steph Curry is working his way back from a knee injury for the Golden State Warriors, but he will not suit up on Monday against the Dallas Mavericks.

Status alert: Stephen Curry (knee) will be incorporated into live action and team practices in the coming days; to miss at least 2 more games.
— Underdog NBA (@UnderdogNBA) March 21, 2026

Golden State has fallen all the way to the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference, and it’s dropped eight of its last 10 games – the same record the tanking Mavericks have in their last 10 games.

Overall, Golden State is 10-22 when Curry sits in the 2025-26 season, and it has very little playoff appeal unless the two-time MVP returns before the end of the regular season.

Still, oddsmakers have set Golden State as a road favorite on Monday.

This is one of the tougher games to bet out of the 10 on Monday night, but I have a lean in the prop market and for the game between the Western Conference foes.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Warriors -2.5 (+100)
Mavericks +2.5 (-120)

Moneyline

Warriors: -130
Mavericks: +110

Total

231.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Warriors vs. Mavericks How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 23
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center
How to Watch (TV): Peacock, NBCSN
Warriors record: 33-38
Mavericks record: 23-48

Warriors vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

Steph Curry – out
Jimmy Butler – out
Seth Curry – out
Al Horford – out
Quinten Post – out
Kristaps Porzingis – probable
Moses Moody – questionable
De’Anthony Melton – probable

Mavericks Injury Report

Brandon Williams – doubtful
Dereck Lively II – out
Kyrie Irving – out
Moussa Cisse – questionable
John Poulakidas – questionable
Caleb Martin – questionable
Tyler Smith – questionable

Warriors vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Klay Thompson OVER 10.5 Points (-122)

Can Thompson have a big game against his former team? I shared in today’s best props for SI Betting why I think the Mavs sharpshooter is worth a look in this matchup:

Dallas Mavericks sharpshooter Klay Thompson has a little revenge game against the Golden State Warriors on Monday night, and he’s been rolling in the month of March despite sitting out a few games.

Thompson is averaging 13.9 points per game in March, shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 41.5 percent from beyond the arc. He’s still averaging 11.9 points per game despite seeing his role diminish as the season has progressed.

While Klay has fallen short of 10.5 points in both of his games against Golden State this season, the Warriors are a much different team with Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler both injured.

I think Thompson can remain hot shooting the ball, as Golden State is just 14th in the league in defensive rating.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams are in the middle of awful slumps, but the Warriors could get Moses Moody (questionable) back in action on Monday night.

That would raise the team’s offensive ceiling, especially with Kristaps Porzingis and De’Anthony Melton expected to play in this game.

Golden State is still five games over .500 against teams that are under .500 this season, and it has a lot to play for if it wants to avoid the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, Dallas is 28th in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games (-11.5) and would much prefer to land a top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft than make any kind of late-season run.

I’ll take the Warriors to win this game, but I don’t really love a side or total in this matchup.

Pick: Warriors Moneyline (-130 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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