Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 5

Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets are firmly in the mix for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, and they have a chance to pick up an easy win on Thursday night.

Houston is favored at home against the Golden State Warriors, who are stuck in the play-in field in the West and won’t have Steph Curry (knee) in this matchup.

Curry’s injury has tanked Golden State’s season – which was already in trouble with Jimmy Butler out for the year – and the Warriors are just one game up on the Los Angeles Clippers for the No. 8 seed in the conference.

Houston has dominated at home this season, going 20-7, and oddsmakers are expecting it to make quick work of this short-handed Warriors squad. Golden State is just 8-14 in the 22 games that Curry has missed, and it’s clear that this supporting cast isn’t good enough to compete for a title this season even when the two-time MVP returns.

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference showdown.

Warriors vs. Rockets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Warriors +8.5 (-108)
Rockets -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Warriors: +300
Rockets: -380

Total

212.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Warriors vs. Rockets How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 5
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Toyota Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Warriors record: 31-30
Rockets record: 38-22

Warriors vs. Rockets Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

Steph Curry – out
Seth Curry – out
Jimmy Butler – out
Moses Moody – out
Will Richard – out
Kristaps Porzingis – out
Gary Payton II – questionable

Rockets Injury Report

Steven Adams – out
Tristen Newton – out
Fred VanVleet – out
Jae’Sean Tate – out
Amen Thompson – questionable
Jabari Smith Jr. – questionable
Alperen Sengun – questionable

Warriors vs. Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

Reed Sheppard OVER 13.5 Points (-119)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Reed Sheppard is a great prop target against the Golden State Warriors:

Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard has recently entered the team’s starting lineup – he’s started three of the last four games – and it’s opened things up for the Rockets spacing-wise.

Sheppard is arguably the best shooter on the Houston roster after Kevin Durant, and the second-year guard has come on strong as of late, scoring 15 or more points in seven of his last 10 games.

During that 10-game stretch, Sheppard is averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting 48.0 percent from the field and 45.8 percent from 3-point range. He’s taking 12.5 shots per game during that stretch with over eight of them coming from beyond the arc.

Now, Sheppard takes on a Golden State team that is allowing 26.46 points per game to opposing point guards – the fourth-most in the NBA. In his first meeting with the Warriors, Sheppard shot 12-of-25 from the field and finished with 31 points.

If Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson or Jabari Smith Jr. (all questionable) sit in this game, Sheppard could see an even bigger role than usual on offense, making him an intriguing prop target in this matchup.

Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction and Pick

The Warriors have really struggled when Curry is out of the lineup, going 8-14 overall this season while averaging just 106.6 points per game. Golden State is now just one game over .500, and it’s 19th in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games.

A lot has been made about Houston’s struggles in crunch time, but the Rockets know how to win at home, going 20-7 this season. That’s a big reason why Durant and company hold the No. 3 seed in the West.

Golden State, on the other hand, is five games under .500 on the road and just 6-6 against the spread when set as a road underdog. This Warriors team simply lacks any offensive firepower with Curry and Jimmy Butler (torn ACL) out of the lineup, and that’s going to be an issue against a Houston team that is No. 5 in the league in defensive rating.

I’ll trust the Rockets to continue their home dominance on Thursday.

Pick: Rockets -8.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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