Who Is the Best Bet to Go Worst-to-First in Their Division in the 2026 NFL Season?

Every single season in the NFL, there seems to be at least one team that wins their division one year after finishing last place. In fact, over the past two decades, 2014, 2019, and 2024 are the only seasons when at least one team didn't go from last to first.

Last year, there were two teams that achieved the feat. The Chicago Bears went from 3-13-1 and last place in the NFC North in 2024 to 11-6 and first place in 2025. The New England Patriots also went from 4-13 in 2024 to winning the AFC East and eventually the entire AFC, with a 14-3 record in 2025.

I'm going to predict one team from each conference to go from worst to first in 2026.

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

NFC Worst to First Prediction

Detroit Lions (+150 to win NFC North)

The Detroit Lions are the most obvious pick on the board. The Lions finished last in the NFC North last year, but they had a winning record of 9-8, a full game above the winner of the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers. Now, they're set as betting favorites to win the division, and for good reason.

They were a lot better than their record in 2025. They finished third in the NFL in DVOA and sixth in Net Yards per Play, which was the best mark amongst all teams that didn't make the postseason. The benefit of them finishing in last place is that they now get to play a fourth-place schedule. In fact, they now have the easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponents' projected win totals.

The path is open for the Lions to not only win the NFC North, but to potentially clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Tennessee Titans (+950 to win AFC South)

My bolder prediction is for the Tennessee Titans to go from last to first in the AFC South. Sure, the division has a couple of strong contenders in it: the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, but there are some signs that the Titans could take a significant step forward this season.

Usually, when a team goes from worst to first, it's because they hired a new head coach who changed the culture in the locker room, which was the case for both the Patriots and the Bears last season. Robert Saleh has taken over the job in Tennessee, just a couple of years removed from when he coached the Jets defense to be one of the best in the NFL.

If Saleh lives up to expectations and Cam Ward can take a significant step forward in his development at quarterback, look out for the Titans to be dangerous this season.

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