Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Fever-Lynx, Kelsey Mitchell)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship between the Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx.

Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell is a great prop target on Tuesday night. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

A champion will be crowned in the WNBA on Tuesday night – the 2025 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Champion – as the Indiana Fever take on the Minnesota Lynx.

Not only does this game feature the two leading MVP candidates in the WNBA (Napheesa Collier and Caitlin Clark), but it also features the defending WNBA Commissioner's Cup Champion in Minnesota.

No team has won back-to-back WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championships since the introduction of the cup into the league, so the Lynx are looking to make history on Tuesday night.

Clark (questionable) and the Fever stand in the way, but the star guard may not be able to play after missing the team’s last two games with a groin injury.

As a result, oddsmakers have set the Fever as 6.5-point underdogs on the road against a Minnesota team that is 8-0 at home and has five straight home wins by double digits. 

So, how should we bet on this standalone matchup? I’m eyeing a player prop and a side for tonight’s title game in the WNBA Commissioner's Cup.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 24-33 (-3.79 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 108-107 (+0.67 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Kelsey Mitchell OVER 18.5 Points (-115)
• Minnesota Lynx -6.5 (-110) vs. Indiana Fever

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 18.5 Points (-115)

Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell has been on fire as of late, scoring 20 or more points in four straight games, averaging 24.5 points per game while shooting 56.7 percent from the field during that stretch.

In the 2025 season, Mitchell is averaging 18.9 points per game while shooting 45.1 percent from the field and 35.4 percent from beyond the arc. However, she’s really upped her 3-point shooting as of late, making three or more shots from deep in four straight games while hitting the trey at a 57.1 percent clip.

I don’t mind taking Mitchell to hit OVER 2.5 3-pointers (+125) in this game either. 

The Fever guard has 20 or more points in seven games in 2025, and she could be in line for a massive offensive role if Clark is unable to go. Regardless of Clark’s status, Mitchell will have a big role in the offense, as she’s averaging over 15 shots per game in the 2025 season. 

Minnesota Lynx -6.5 (-110) vs. Indiana Fever

Earlier today, I shared in my betting preview for this game why the Lynx are the bet to make to cover the spread: 

I believe that this is the season where we finally see a repeat champion in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup.

While the Fever are a strong opponent for the Lynx in this matchup – especially if Clark plays – Indiana has not exactly been dominant even when the star guard is in the lineup this season.

The Fever are 5-4 with Clark in the lineup and 3-4 without her, ranking fourth in the WNBA in net rating (+5.5), fourth in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating.

The Lynx, on the other hand, are No. 1 in all of those categories, posting an insanely impressive +14.0 net rating so far in 2025. 

Minnesota got off to a slow start against the spread, but it is now 9-7 overall and has not lost a game outright at home all season, The Lynx have wins by 39, 16, 14, 23 and 23 in their last five home games.

Not bad! 

I’m worried about Indiana’s defense keeping up in this game, and I think there is a chance Clark sits if she’s not feeling 100 percent. Earlier this season, she didn’t return from a quad injury until she was able to play her normal workload, playing over 31 minutes in a win over the New York Liberty. 

Plus, the star guard was marred in a shooting slump before going down, hitting just 13 of her last 37 shots from the floor.

Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA right now, and just about every advanced number backs up that claim.

With the Lynx nearly fully healthy heading into this matchup, I think they’re going to continue to roll at home. 

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