Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for A’ja Wilson vs. Mystics, Sparks vs. Liberty)

Four of the top eight teams in the WNBA are in action on Thursday night, as several squads are battling for the top spots in the league behind the Minnesota Lynx.

The action begins with Rhyne Howard and the Atlanta Dream taking on the Connecticut Sun, a team that Atlanta beat by 16 points in their first meeting this season. While I’m not including a pick for that game in today’s edition of Peter’s Points, it will be covered in a betting preview right here at SI Betting.

The two games that I’m targeting on Thursday night are both on national television (Prime Video), as the New York Liberty host the Los Angeles Sparks and the Las Vegas Aces play a second game in a row against the Washington Mystics.

Las Vegas and Washington have split their first two meetings this season, but A’ja Wilson and Co. got the best of the Mystics on Tuesday night. Now, I’m targeting the four-time league MVP in the prop market as she continues her standout 2026 season.

Meanwhile, the Liberty are looking to bounce back from a loss against the Indiana Fever and are heavily favored at home on Thursday night.

I’m advising bettors to keep their eyes on the total in that matchup as part of this two-pick Peter’s Points column.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 84-69 (-0.99 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 259-233-2 (+1.91 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

A’ja Wilson 25+ Points (-136)
Los Angeles Sparks-New York Liberty OVER 186.5 (-110)

A’ja Wilson 25+ Points (-136)

The MVP favorite once again this season, Wilson is averaging 26.3 points per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the field and 42.5 percent from 3-point range. The Aces star has dominated the Mystics in two meetings this season, scoring 38 and 26 points while shooting a combined 22-for-34 from the field.

Washington is No. 2 in the WNBA in defensive rating this season, but Wilson has proven time and time again that she is matchup-proof.

The three-time champion is averaging 27.6 points per game over her last 14 games, shooting 53.0 percent from the field. During that stretch, she’s scored at least 26 points 10 times and at least 30 points six times.

I expect Wilson to stay hot against this Mystics team that clearly doesn’t have an answer for her.

Los Angeles Sparks-New York Liberty OVER 186.5 (-110)

The Liberty and Sparks have faced off twice this season and both of those games turning into high-scoring affairs.

These teams combined for 195 points in their first meeting when Kelsey Plum was still with the Sparks, but Sabrina Ionescu (two points) was still working her way back from injury. Then, with Plum on the shelf (she’s now with Phoenix) in their second meeting, the Liberty and Sparks combined for 222 points back on July 28.

So, this is a pretty low total, especially since both of these teams have hit the OVER at a high rate this season.

New York has hit the OVER in 64.7 percent of its games (second-best in the WNBA) while the Sparks have done so in 62.5 percent of their contests. The OVER is also 10-6 when L.A. is on the road this season.

New York is getting closer to full strength health wise, but it remains a subpar defense this season, ranking 10th in the league in defensive rating. That’s still much better than this Los Angeles team, which is allowing over 93 points per game while ranking 13th in the league in defensive rating.

The Sparks are also third in the WNBA in pace, which should give each of these teams a few extra possessions on Thursday night. I expect both of these teams to hover around the 100-point mark in their third and final meeting of the 2026 regular season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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