Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Aces vs. Liberty, Sabrina Ionescu)

The 2026 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup may end up being a preview of this year’s WNBA Finals, as the defending champion Las Vegas Aces and A’ja Wilson take on Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty in a standalone game on Tuesday night.

It’s hard to find two more accomplished teams, especially in the last few years, and one of them will be the first team in league history to win the Commissioner’s Cup twice. Las Vegas won the cup in 2022 before losing to the Liberty in 2023, then the Liberty lost to the Minnesota Lynx in the Commissioner’s Cup title game in 2024.

These two squads also make up the last four WNBA champions (Las Vegas in 2025, 2023 and 2022, New York in 2024), so they aren’t strangers to big games.

New York won the first meeting between these teams in 2026 back on June 23 in Las Vegas, so oddsmakers have set the Liberty as 2.5-point favorites at home with the Commissioner’s Cup on the line.

In today’s edition of Peter’s Points, I’m targeting a side and a player prop for this standalone matchup. Can A’ja Wilson and Co. continue to show that they’re the team to beat in 2026? Will Sabrina Ionescu and the loaded Liberty improve on a 6-4 mark at home?

Here’s a full breakdown of my two favorite bets for Tuesday night’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 49-33 (+7.69 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 224-196-2 (+10.59 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Las Vegas Aces +2.5 (-115) vs. New York Liberty
Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 15.5 Points (-118)

Las Vegas Aces +2.5 (-115) vs. New York Liberty

New York has been shaky as of late, losing on the road to the Golden State Valkyries on Sunday for its fourth loss in five games. The Liberty dropped games against Washington, Los Angeles and Seattle during that stretch, and they’ve dropped to 12-8 overall this season.

Even though New York won the lone meeting between these teams, it came with Wilson having one of her worst games of the season (16 points on 7-of-18 shooting). The four-time league MVP is averaging over 25 points per game while shooting 52.4 percent from the field.

I don’t think there’s a major gap between these teams, so I don’t mind taking the points in this Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game.

Las Vegas is 7-4 against the spread on the road this season, and it’s right behind the Liberty in net rating (plus-5.4 vs. plus-5.2).

New York is just two games over .500 at home, and it has some really confusing losses to teams like Seattle, Portland and others in 2026. I think the Aces’ offense (No. 1 in offensive rating) is good enough to at least keep this game close on Tuesday night.

Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 15.5 Points (-118)

The 2026 season has been a rough one for All-Star guard Sabrina Ionescu, as she missed time with ankle and back injuries to start the year. Ionescu has played in seven games so far this month (eight in the 2026 season), but she’s struggled with her shot.

The former University of Oregon star is shooting just 34.6 percent from the field and 27.0 percent from 3, averaging 9.5 points per game. In eight games, Ionescu has scored 16 or more points just once, shooting 5-for-12 and scoring 16 points in the win over the Aces.

Despite that, I think the move is to fade the Liberty guard on Tuesday.

Las Vegas is in the middle of the pack in defensive rating (eighth) this season, and Ionescu has just four games where she’s scored in double figures despite taking 10 or more shots in five of her eight games.

Until Ionescu returns to her usual form, I think this line is a little high, especially since she’s averaging 5.3 fewer shots per game than she had in the 2025 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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