Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Dream vs. Liberty, Valkyries vs. Aces in Game 3)

It’s win or go home for both the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty on Friday night, as they’ve both dropped the first two games of the best-of-five WNBA Semifinals.

Both teams are favored on Friday night, but the Atlanta Dream (4-0 this postseason) and Golden State Valkyries (4-1 this postseason) are more than capable of winning and punching a ticket to the WNBA Finals.

The No. 8-seeded Liberty were just 14-8 at home during the regular season, and they’re coming off a brutal overtime loss in Game 2. The 2024 WNBA champions are facing an uphill battle over the next three games, especially since they lost Game 2 even with All-Star Allisha Gray sidelined for Atlanta.

Las Vegas is in a tough spot as well, as the defending champs have been down multiple rotation players (NaLyssa Smith, Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans), which has hurt them against an elite defensive team in Golden State.

After nearly making a comeback in Game 2 on the road, the Aces are 4.5-point favorites at home in Game 3. Can they get themselves back in this series?

I won’t sugarcoat it, the playoffs have been rough when it comes to my picks in Peter’s Points, especially after both the Aces and Liberty failed to come through as underdogs in Game 2. We’ve seen a bunch of close games in the semifinals, and I expect that trend to continue on Friday night.

Let’s hope for a bounce-back night with these two plays on Oct. 9.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 108-99 (-12.07 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 283-264-2 (-9.17 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Atlanta Dream +3.5 (-112) vs. New York Liberty
Golden State Valkyries +4.5 (-115) vs. Las Vegas Aces

Atlanta Dream +3.5 (-112) vs. New York Liberty

The Dream have been a top-five team in offensive, defensive and net rating almost all season long, and I think I’ve been too low on them in this playoff series.

The Liberty shocked the entire WNBA by upsetting the Minnesota Lynx in Round 1, and they nearly pulled off an upset win in overtime in Game 2. However, New York has now lost four straight games against the Dream dating back to the regular season.

The Liberty were just 10-9 against the spread when favored at home in the regular season, and I think a full possession is pretty valuable since the first two games between these teams were decided by 10 and three points.

It’s also worth noting that no team in the WNBA had a better net rating on the road than the Dream (plus-8.7), and they went 15-7 in those games. I’m betting on them at least keeping this game close with New York’s season on the line.

Golden State Valkyries +4.5 (-115) vs. Las Vegas Aces

Are the Valkyries getting too many points on Friday night?

Golden State has covered the spread in back-to-back games in this series, and it snapped a three-game losing streak against the Aces (from the regular season) with the first two games in the WNBA Semifinals.

The Valkyries’ defense (No. 1 in the WNBA) has won the battle so far against the Aces’ No. 2 offense, holding them to just 141 points in two games. With Las Vegas pretty thin on the bench at this point in the season, I don’t love betting on it to cover by multiple possessions, even at home.

The Aces are 14-9 against the spread when favored at home in 2026, but the Valkyries are equally as good as road underdogs, covering in six of nine games in that spot.

Since the Aces have not been able to pull away offensively – and have no answer for Gabby Williams – I expect Golden State’s defense to keep it in this game.

During the regular season, the Valkyries actually had a better net rating on the road (plus-7.8) than the Aces did at home (plus-5.5). An upset would be shocking, but there’s a good chance Golden State covers in Game 3.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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