Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Dream vs. Wings, Valkyries vs. Mercury)

Multiple WNBA Finals contenders are in action on Wednesday, July 29, as the league is back to a normal schedule following the All-Star break.

After a five-game slate on Tuesday night, four teams begin their second half of the 2026 season on Wednesday:

Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wings
Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury

Atlanta and Dallas are both in the mix for a top-four spot in the league, and the Wings currently hold the No. 4 seed after a strong showing prior to the break where they won seven of their last 10 games.

Meanwhile, the Mercury have a ton of work to do if they want to get back to the postseason after making the Finals in 2025. They’re set as underdogs against the Valkyries, who have a real chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the league.

For this two-game slate, I’m going pretty simple in today’s edition of Peter’s Points.

I’ve decided to take a side in each matchup, including a moneyline bet for the Dallas Wings as they continue their impressive season under new head coach Jose Fernandez.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 67-54 (+0.87 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 242-217-2 (+3.77 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dallas Wings Moneyline (-114) vs. Atlanta Dream
Golden State Valkyries -5.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Dallas Wings Moneyline (-114) vs. Atlanta Dream

Atlanta won the first meeting between these teams back in May, but the Wings have played much better basketball as of late.

Dallas is up to fifth in the league in net rating, fourth in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating, sitting ahead of the Dream in two of those categories. While Atlanta has been slightly better on defense this season, it has a negative net rating (minus-1.0) over its last 10 games.

The Dream are just 4-6 during that stretch despite entering the break on a three-game winning streak, and they’re just one game over .500 on the road.

Dallas is 8-4 straight up at home, and I think it’s a little undervalued at this price with Paige Bueckers expected to be in the lineup even though she missed a game before the break against New York.

Atlanta has the second-worst against the spread record on the road (5-8) this season, so I don’t love it in a pick’em scenario against this Dallas team.

At home, the Wings have the third-best net rating (plus-10.3) in the WNBA this season.

Golden State Valkyries -5.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Golden State already has two wins (both at home) by six or more points against this Phoenix team, and it comes out of the break with the best defensive rating in the WNBA.

The Mercury have not been good in the 2026 season, as they rank 10th in the league in net rating (minus-4.2), 12th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. Alyssa Thomas has been floated in trade rumors ahead of the deadline, a sign that the Mercury are ready to change their core despite making the Finals in 2025.

Phoenix has yet to cover the spread as a home underdog this season (0-4 to date), and I don’t expect it to upset this Golden State team that was rolling before the break, winning nine of its last 10 games.

The Valkyries are an elite defensive team, and they should be able to slow a Mercury offense that is ninth in the league in both effective field goal percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. Plus, the Valkyries are a league-best 3-2 against the spread as road favorites, posting an average scoring margin of plus-10.2 points per game in those matchups.

I expect them to win fairly easily on Wednesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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