Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kelsey Mitchell, Wings vs. Mystics)

The month of July comes to a close with a banger of a WNBA slate on Friday night, as the Indiana Fever, Dallas Wings and Atlanta Dream are all in action:

Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream
Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics
Indiana Fever vs. Portland Fire

Caitlin Clark and the Fever are looking to win a fifth game in a row while the Dream and Wings are both battling for a top-four spot in the standings. Atlanta is heavily favored at home against the Seattle Storm while the Wings have an interesting matchup with Washington, which is in the mix to make the playoffs after winning seven of its last 10 games.

After several days without a player prop pick in Peter’s Points, I’m going back to one of my favorite plays all season and targeting Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell to hit the OVER on her 3-point prop against the Fire.

Let’s break down that pick – and my favorite game prediction – for Friday, July 31.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 68-57 (-1.57 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 243-220-2 (+1.33 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dallas Wings-Washington Mystics UNDER 169.5 (-110)
Kelsey Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-156)

Dallas Wings-Washington Mystics UNDER 169.5 (-110)

This season, the Wings have hit the UNDER more than any other team in the WNBA, and I think this line is a little high given how these two teams operate in terms of their pace of play.

The first meeting between the Wings and Mystics finished with just 161 combined points (it was much earlier in the season), and these two teams both rank in the bottom five in the W in pace this season. They’re also both in the top five in the league in defensive rating.

The Mystics don’t have a good offense (14th in the WNBA in offensive rating), so it makes sense that they’d prefer to play games at a slower pace and hope to win in the half court.

Meanwhile, Dallas is the No. 4 scoring offense but also the No. 5 defense in opponent points per game.

If this game is played at a slower tempo, I think defense wins out for both teams in the half court. Both teams could end up in the 80s and this game could still go UNDER.

With Washington at home – where it is 6-1 ATS as an underdog – I think betting on a low-scoring game is the safest play.

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-156)

Mitchell has been one of the best scorers in the WNBA this season, and she enters Friday’s matchup averaging 23.5 points per game while shooting 49.8 percent from the field and 43.1 percent from 3.

Mitchell has been on a crazy heater from beyond the arc, making at least three shots from deep in 12 consecutive games and 14 of her last 15 matchups. This bet has been one of the most profitable in the W this season, and I’m going back to the well against a shaky Portland defense.

Now, the Fever star failed to clear this line in each of her two games against the Fire early in the season, but she only attempted five combined 3-pointers in those games. Thanks to her recent hot stretch, Mitchell is now averaging 2.8 made 3s on 6.5 attempts per game.

Plus, Portland ranks 13th in the W in opponent points per game and eighth in opponent 3s made per game.

Mitchell should keep this streak going on Friday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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