Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Liberty vs. Aces, Lynx vs. Tempo on Thursday)

Thursday’s WNBA action features the last team to play a game out of the All-Star break, the Chicago Sky, as they’ll host one of three games on July 30:

Minnesota Lynx vs. Toronto Tempo
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces

Minnesota, New York and Las Vegas are all title contenders this season, but the Tempo, Sun and Sky are all on the outside looking in of the playoffs with less than half the season to play.

I’m targeting two of these three matchups in today’s edition of Peter’s Points, including a pick for the winner of the rematch of this year’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship between the Liberty and Aces.

It’s been a few days since I included a prop in this column, but I also shared a prop for each of these games in the betting previews for these matchups that will be up on SI Betting on Thursday morning.

Now, let’s examine each of these picks – and their latest odds – for July 30.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 67-56 (-1.13 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 242-219-2 (+1.77 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Toronto Tempo +11.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Lynx
Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-180) vs. New York Liberty

Toronto Tempo +11.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Lynx

Minnesota led by double digits at home against the Tempo on Tuesday night,but Toronto ended up coming back to lose by just seven points (100-93). That continued a wild trend for the Lynx, who have not won a game by more than 10 points since June 17.

The Lynx have gone 12 straight games where they would have failed to cover this number, and after an insane start to the season against the spread, they are now fifth in the league (16-13) against the number. Tuesday’s win was the eighth win in a row for the Lynx, but they’ve struggled to win those games by a wide margin.

So, I’m going to take the Tempo as double-digit home dogs on Thursday night.

Toronto is seventh in the league in offensive rating, and it had some more firepower on offense on Tuesday with rookie Kiki Rice returning to the lineup. The Tempo have only covered in two of seven games as home dogs, but they’ve been solid as underdogs overall this season, going 11-9 against the spread.

This may be just a few too many points for the Lynx, even though they have the best record in the WNBA.

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-180) vs. New York Liberty

The Aces are 0-2 against New York this season (one of those losses was in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup title game), but I’m buying them at home on Thursday night.

New York won, but failed to cover the spread, on Tuesday night against the short-handed Los Angeles Sparks, and the Liberty are a league-worst 3-11 against the spread on the road in 2026.

I’m going to forget the points and simply take the Aces to win, as they’ve been the better team statistically in 2026.

Las Vegas ranks seventh in offensive rating, sixth in defensive rating and fourth in net rating while the Liberty are fifth, eighth and seventh in those respective categories. Plus, New York has been banged up all season long with both Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally missing significant time.

The Aces improved to 8-5 at home with a win over Portland on Tuesday, and it’s worth noting that the Liberty are two games under .500 against the Western Conference in 2026.

I think Las Vegas finally gets a win in what has become one of the best rivalries in the W.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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