Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Lynx vs. Mercury, Storm vs. Wings)

WNBA Commissioner’s Cup play begins on Monday night, and the quest for a sixth cup winner in as many years is officially one.

The Seattle Storm, Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever have all won a Commissioner’s Cup, and the Aces, Liberty and Lynx have all lost in the final in their quest for back-to-back cup wins.

Cup play goes until June 17, and the top two seeds will meet in the Commissioner’s Cup Final on June 30.

To start the action, the Dallas Wings and Paige Bueckers take on the Seattle Storm and first-round pick Awa Fam on Monday night before the Lynx look to continue their four-game winning streak against the struggling Phoenix Mercury.

Dallas and Minnesota are both in the top five in the league’s standings while the Mercury and Storm have fallen to the bottom of the Western Conference through the first few weeks of the season.

Whether you’re looking to bet on these games or simply interested in who is going to start Commissioner’s Cup play on the right foot, I’ve decided to pick a side in both of these matchups for today’s Peter’s Points.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 26-14 (+7.76 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 201-178-2 (+10.66 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-162) vs. Phoenix Mercury
Dallas Wings -12.5 (-108) vs. Seattle Storm

Minnesota Lynx Moneyline (-162) vs. Phoenix Mercury

Minnesota has been the best team in the WNBA through the first few weeks, ranking No. 1 in net rating and No. 1 in defensive rating. The offense (eighth in the W) hasn’t been as effective as it would be if Napheesa Collier (out, ankle) was playing, but it’s been good enough for the Lynx to start 6-2 and cover the spread in seven of their eight games.

I’m going to forget the points in this matchup and simply take the Lynx to win outright on the road. Minnesota is 4-0 away from Target Center this season, and it already has an 88-84 road win over the Mercury.

Phoenix started the season with a bang, blowing out the defending champion Las Vegas Aces, but it has since lost seven of eight games and is currently on a five-game skid. The Mercury don’t have a terrible net rating (minus-1.2), but they have the worst 3-point defense in the WNBA and are 10th in points per game on offense.

The loss of Satou Sabally has hurt the Mercury early in the season, and I expect them to struggle against the WNBA’s best defense. Plus, Phoenix has been the worst team to bet on to cover (3-6 against the spread) through nine games.

I’ll bet on the Lynx staying hot in this Commissioner’s Cup opener.

Dallas Wings -12.5 (-108) vs. Seattle Storm

Dallas had a rough 2025 season with Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale leading the way, but I’m all in on this team making the playoffs in 2026.

Through eight games, Dallas ranks third in net rating and first in offensive rating, making up for the fact that it is No. 12 in the league in defensive rating. Luckily for the Wings, they’re playing a Seattle team that is No. 14 in offense and down its best player – Dominique Malonga – on Monday night.

The Storm are 3-6 this season, but two of those wins have come against the Connecticut Sun, who are by far the worst team in the league.

On top of that, Seattle has lost five games by 11 or more points, including some that Malonga was in the lineup. So, without the former No. 2 overall pick, I think the Storm are in trouble against this high-powered Dallas attack.

The Wings have covered the spread in five of eight games, picking up back-to-back wins over title contenders like the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces. I’m buying this Dallas team heading into the Commissioner’s Cup, and I think it’s a dark horse to end up winning the Cup later this month.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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