Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mystics vs. Sun, Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams)

A few rematches highlight Friday’s WNBA action, as the Atlanta Dream and Portland Fire look to bounce back from losses on Wednesday night.

Atlanta fell to the Golden State Valkyries, scoring just 66 points in the loss, yet it’s in another pick’em scenario in Golden State on Friday night. Meanwhile, the Chicago Sky snapped a massive losing streak against the Fire, turning in one of their best offensive showings of the season with 101 points.

Friday’s action also features a matchup between the Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun, where Shakira Austin and Co. are heavily favored to pick up their ninth win of the season. The Mystics have won three of their last four games, and they put up back-to-back strong performances against the Minnesota Lynx, covering the spread in both games and winning one of them outright.

I’m targeting three bets on Friday night, including a player prop for Sky star Skylar Diggins, who has a favorable matchup against a shaky Portland defense.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 46-30 (+8.38 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 221-193-2 (+11.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Washington Mystics -4.5 (-105) vs. Connecticut Sun
Skylar Diggins OVER 5.5 Assists (-110)
Gabby Williams 15+ Points (-184)

Washington Mystics -4.5 (-105) vs. Connecticut Sun

The Mystics have the second-best against the spread record in the WNBA this season (10-6), and they’re coming off inspiring performances against the Minnesota Lynx, who currently have the best net rating and record in the league.

So, I think Washington is a little undervalued – even on the road – against a Sun team that is 3-15 so far this season and just 2-7 at home. Connecticut is in a clear rebuild, and the franchise is set to relocate to Houston after the season. There weren’t any expectations for the Sun in the 2026 season, and they’ve shown that they’re nowhere near playoff contention by ranking 15th in offensive rating, 15th in net rating and 12th in defensive rating.

The Mystics are just 10th in net rating so far this season (minus-3.9), but that mark is nearly seven points per 100 possessions better than the Sun.

CT is 8-10 against the spread with an average scoring margin of minus-8.4 points this season, and the Mystics had a seven-point road win (88-81) against Connecticut back on June 17.

I’ll gladly lay the points here with the Mystics playing some of their best basketball this season over their last five games.

Skylar Diggins OVER 5.5 Assists (-110)

Diggins is averaging just 4.7 assists per game this season for a Sky offense that is 12th in the league in offensive rating, but I’m buying the seven-time All-Star against the Fire.

On Wednesday, Diggins had 15 points and six assists in a 101-78 win over Portland, and she’s picked up six or more dimes in three of her last four games. The Sky have limited offensive options with Rickea Jackson out for the year, but Diggins still has six or more dimes in seven of her 16 games.

I think the veteran guard is undervalued in this matchup, as the Fire are dead last in the league in defensive rating and rank 14th in opponent assists per game. In her two meetings with Portland in 2026, Diggins has seven and six dimes and the Sky are 2-0.

Gabby Williams 15+ Points (-184)

Golden State Valkyries forward Gabby Williams is having a career year in 2026, averaging 16.3 points per game while shooting 42.1 percent from the field and 37.1 percent from 3-point range.

While the Valkyries aren’t an elite offensive team, Williams has been as close to a “1A” option as you’ll find, averaging a career-high 13.4 shots per game while averaging nearly five more points per game than she did in the 2025 season.

On Wednesday, Williams dropped 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in a win over Atlanta, and I think she’s worth a look to score 15 or more points in Friday’s rematch. The former UConn star has 15 or more points in seven of her last eight games, scoring over 20 points in four of those matchups.

Atlanta is a solid defensive team, but Williams’ usage is way up during this eight-game stretch. She’s averaging over 15 shots per game, taking 16 or more shots in six of those matchups.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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