Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Paige Bueckers, Aces, Fever, Liberty-Dream)

Thursday’s WNBA Commissioner’s Cup action features some of the best players in the world, as the top four MVP candidates – A’ja Wilson, Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers and Breanna Stewart – are all set to take the floor.

Here’s a quick look at the four-game slate on June 11:

Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings
Las Vegas Aces vs. Portland Fire

The Liberty, Aces and Minnesota Lynx are the only teams that are undefeated in Commissioner’s Cup play, and the matchup between New York and Atlanta (3-1 in Commissioner’s Cup action) could end up deciding the Eastern Conference representative in the championship game.

I’m eyeing three plays for Thursday’s action, including a player prop for Bueckers, who had led the Dallas Wings to a strong start in 2026 after a 10-win 2025 season.

Let’s break down each of these plays for one of the best WNBA nights of the season.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 37-19 (+11.33 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 212-183-2 (+14.23 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Indiana Fever-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-172)
Paige Bueckers OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-113)
Atlanta Dream Moneyline (-120) vs. New York Liberty

Indiana Fever-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-172)

Indiana Fever

The Sky have the worst against the spread record in the WNBA this season (4-8), and they’ve really struggled over their last 10 games, posting a net rating of minus-10.1.

Only the Connecticut Sun have a worse net rating during that stretch.

The Fever are just seventh in the league in net rating (plus-3.6), but they’re 4-2 at home and picked up a 12-point win over Atlanta in their last home Commissioner’s Cup game.

While laying 9.5 points is a lot with a Fever team that has been up and down through 11 games, the Sky have shown some serious issues on the offensive end, ranking 13th in offensive rating, 13th in points per game and 14th in effective field goal percentage.

The Fever have the ability to be one of the best offenses in the W with Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston leading the way, and I think they’re a no-brainer bet as a favorite with the Sky struggling against just about everyone in the East.

Chicago’s poor ATS record makes it even easier to bet Indiana simply to win outright on Thursday night.

Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas has dominated on the road in the 2026 season, posting a plus-13.1 net rating while going 4-3 against the spread.

The Fire are just 5-8 against the number this season, and they’ve really struggled in Commissioner’s Cup action:

June 2: 18-point road loss to Golden State
June 5: Six-point home loss to Phoenix
June 7: 17-point road loss to Los Angeles

Portland doesn’t have a top-line scoring option – which is expected as an expansion team – and it has dropped to 12th in the league in net rating.

I don’t think this team has the firepower to compete with the defending champs, who are fourth in offensive rating and No. 2 in points per game this season.

Paige Bueckers OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-113)

This season, Bueckers has been a more willing 3-point shooter, taking 4.6 per game after attempting just 3.3 per game as a rookie.

The increased volume has yielded some positive results, as Bueckers is shooting 41.2 percent from beyond the arc (1.9 makes per game) and has made multiple 3-pointers in six of her 11 games.

Phoenix has struggled with 3-point defense this season, allowing opponents to shoot 38.0 percent from deep while allowing 10.2 made 3s per game. Both of those numbers are the worst in the league, and that sets up well for Bueckers to have a big game from beyond the arc.

She was 3-for-7 from 3 against Minnesota on Tuesday, and she’s attempted at least four 3-pointers in nine of her 11 games in 2026.

Atlanta Dream Moneyline (-120) vs. New York Liberty

I’m going to take a shot on Atlanta to win this game, especially since we’ve yet to see the Liberty at their peak form in the 2026 season.

Atlanta outranks the Liberty in offensive, defensive and net rating, though New York has improved to the No. 3 defensive rating in the league.

The Dream are rolling at home right now, winning four of five games while posting a 3-1 against the spread record as home favorites.

New York’s recent win streak has been impressive, but three of those wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league in Connecticut and Phoenix (twice). So, how much can we really take away from this recent surge?

The Liberty have only played two games against top-six teams in the league (Golden State and Dallas) losing both of them. The Dream are a major step up in class, and I think they’re a little undervalued at home on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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