Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Paige Bueckers, Aces, Liberty, Lynx-Sparks, More)

The WNBA wraps up round-robin play for the Commissioner’s Cup on Wednesday night, and while the Eastern Conference has been clinched by the New York Liberty, the Western Conference spot in the Commissioner’s Cup championship is still up for grabs.

The Las Vegas Aces (5-1), Minnesota Lynx (5-1) and Dallas Wings (4-2) are all in play for the top spot, though Minnesota has the best point differential (plus-111) among the three teams. Las Vegas currently holds the top spot since it beat the Lynx head-to-head, but a loss to Dallas on Monday opened the door for the Aces to lose the No. 1 spot.

There are six games on Wednesday, including four Western Conference matchups that will all tip at 10:00 p.m. EST:

Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
Seattle Storm vs. Portland Fire

I’m eyeing two player props, a two-team parlay and a spread pick for Wednesday’s action, including a play for Wings guard Paige Bueckers, who is making a series MVP case in the 2026 campaign.

Here’s a look at the odds and analysis behind each of my WNBA best bets on June 17.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 41-25 (+9.53 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 216-188-2 (+12.44 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Sparks
New York Liberty-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-143)
Dominique Malonga OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-141)
Paige Bueckers OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)

Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Minnesota needs a win and a Las Vegas loss to earn the top spot in the West in the Commissioner’s Cup after it lost on June 13 to the Aces by three points.

The Lynx rebounded nicely from that loss on Monday, beating the Portland Fire by 33 points to improve to 11-3 overall and 12-2 against the spread. The Lynx have won nine of their last 10 games and have a net rating of plus-15.8, which is over seven points better than the New York Liberty (No. 2 in the WNBA in net rating).

Olivia Miles and company have the best offensive and defensive rating in the W, and I think they’re a little undervalued as just 3.5-point road favorites against the Sparks.

Los Angeles is coming off a blowout loss against Golden State and is 14th in the league in defensive rating this season. The Sparks have also struggled at home winning just two of their seven games outright while going a league-worst 1-6 against the spread.

I’ll gladly take the Lynx to win by four or more with a potential trip to the Commissioner’s Cup championship game on the line.

New York Liberty-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-143)

New York Liberty

The Liberty have a favorable matchup on Wednesday against a Chicago Sky team that is 4-9 straight up and 5-8 against the spread in the 2026 season.

Chicago’s offense is one of the worst in the WNBA (13th in offensive rating) while the Liberty (No. 2 in net rating) have the second-best defensive rating in the league. New York comes into this game on a seven-game winning streak, and it has an impressive 4-1 record on the road.

The Sky have not been able to make up for the loss of Rickea Jackson (torn ACL), and they’ve covered the spread in just one of six home games in 2026. I think this is a no-brainer bet to take the Liberty, who are looking to sweep the East in Commissioner’s Cup action.

Las Vegas Aces

The path to the Commissioner’s Cup championship game is pretty simple for the Las Vegas Aces: Win and get in.

The Aces hold the tiebreaker over the Lynx after Saturday night’s win, but they struggled on Monday against an up-and-coming Dallas team, suffering their second road loss of the season.

I don’t expect that to happen on Wednesday against the 4-11 Phoenix Mercury, even though Phoenix blew out the Aces in the first meeting between these teams.

Since then, the Mercury are 3-11 while the Aces have won 10 of their next 13 games.

A’ja Wilson and company have the No. 2 offensive rating in the WNBA while the Mercury are 11th in both offensive and defensive rating. Plus, Phoenix is a league-worst 5-10 against the spread in the 2026 season.

With a trip to the Commissioner’s Cup title game on the line, I’ll trust the Aces to get the job done.

Dominique Malonga OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-141)

Seattle Storm center Dominique Malonga missed time earlier this season with a concussion, but she’s still averaging 14.0 points and 6.3 rebounds in 22.7 minutes per game.

Malonga has played over 24 minutes in back-to-back games, a sign that she’s returning to her usual workload after missing nearly a month. The former No. 2 overall pick has seven or more rebounds in back-to-back games and five of her seven appearances in the 2026 season.

So, she’s at least worth a look against the Portland Fire, who rank 13th in the WNBA in rebound percentage this season, Malonga has yet to face the Fire this season, but she has at least seven boards in every game where she’s played 19 or more minutes.

That gives her a really solid floor in a rather favorable matchup on Wednesday night.

Paige Bueckers OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)

Wings guard Paige Bueckers is having quite the 2026 season, averaging 19.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game while shooting an impressive 51.4 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from 3.

I’m targeting her as a 3-point shooter on Wednesday, as she’s taking on a Golden State team that ranks 10th in the W in opponent 3s made per game and 12th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Bueckers has two or more made 3-pointers in three games in a row and eight of her 13 appearances overall in the 2026 season. She’s taking 4.7 3-pointers per game – which is up from her rookie year – and has attempted five or more 3-pointers in five of her last six games.

I think this line is a little low, especially against this Golden State defense.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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