Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Valkyries vs. Liberty, Sonia Citron vs. Mercury)

Three playoff teams are in action in the WNBA on Thursday night, as the Golden State Valkyries take on the New York Liberty and the Washington Mystics play their second game in a row against the Phoenix Mercury.

Washington, Golden State and New York have all clinched playoff spots, but there is a lot up for grabs in terms of the final positioning for all of these teams. In fact, it’s very possible Golden State faces one of New York or Washington in the first round of the playoffs next month.

This is an interesting two-game slate to bet, especially since the Valkyries are playing a back-to-back and their third game in four nights. They’ve been set as underdogs against a Liberty team that they’ve already beaten twice in the 2026 season.

Meanwhile, Washington is favored on the road after a 10-point win over Phoenix on Tuesday. The Mercury have nothing to play for at this point in the season, and it appears that their trade deadline move to acquire Kelsey Plum as a major gamble since the team missed the playoffs.

If Plum leaves in free agency, the Mercury are going to be in a tough spot to explain that move to their fan base.

When it comes to betting on this two-game slate, I’m eyeing one player prop and a total on Thursday.

Mystics guard Sonia Citron highlights these picks after she came through on a prop bet in Tuesday night’s win.

WNBA Best Bets Record

2026 season record: 87-76 (-4.61 units)
Overall (since 2024 season): 262-240-2 (-1.71 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Golden State Valkyries-New York Liberty UNDER 162.5 (-110)
Sonia Citron OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-112)

Golden State Valkyries-New York Liberty UNDER 162.5 (-110)

The Valkyries are the No. 2 team in the WNBA at hitting the UNDER this season, and their defense is the main reason why.

Golden State is No. 1 in defensive rating, No. 1 in opponent points per game and plays at the slowest pace in the WNBA. It’s like this team was built in a lab to play low-scoring games.

Even though New York has a lot more offensive talent, it has losses by 17 (at home) and nine (on the road) against this Golden State squad this season. In fact, the Liberty have been held to 70 and 67 points in their two games against the Valkyries, combining for less than 160 points in both meetings.

So, I don’t mind a bet on the UNDER in this matchup.

New York has actually hit the UNDER in 11 of 18 home games this season. While the Liberty are a top-five team in offensive rating this season, I have a hard time betting on any game the Valkyries play to go OVER a total this high.

Sonia Citron OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-112)

Washington Mystics star Sonia Citron cashed this prop earlier in the week, and I’m going to go right back to it in the rematch between the Mystics and Mercury on Thursday.

While Citron has not shot the ball as well as she did as a rookie, knocking down just 32.4 percent of her attempts from 3, she’s a combined 8-for-12 from beyond the arc in two games against Phoenix this season.

That includes a 3-for-6 showing on Tuesday night, a great sign that Citron is willing to clear her season average (around 4.0 attempts per game) from beyond the arc against this soft Mercury defense.

Phoenix is dead last in the WNBA in opponent 3s made per game and 14th in opponent 3-point percentage after Tuesday’s loss, which sets up extremely well for Citron. The former Notre Dame star has proven she can shoot the 3 with the best of them, hitting over 44 percent of her shots from 3 last season.

As long as the volume is there, Citron is a terrific bet to clear this line for the third time in as many games against Phoenix.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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