World Cup Upset Pick of the Day (Can Paraguay Take Down the United States?)

The United States Men's National Team is one of three hosts of this year's World Cup, alongside Mexico and Canada. They drew a favorable group and are set as favorites to come out on top over the likes of Australia, Turkiye, and Paraguay.

They'll open their 2026 World Cup campaign in prime-time on Friday night against Paraguay. All of this sets up for the United States to start things on the right foot with a win, right? Not so fast.

Let's dive into why I think you should consider betting on Paraguay to pull off the upset.

World Cup Best Upset Pick Today

Paraguay (+320) to Upset United States

In today's edition of my Best World Cup Bets Today, I wrote about why I'm betting on Paraguay to pull off the upset against the host country:

No team is more overvalued in the betting market than the USMNT in every World Cup. Let's remember they're just the fourth-ranked team in CONCACAF behind Mexico, Canada, and Panama. They also come into this match in terrible form, having lost three of their last four games.

They have to face an underrated Paraguay team in their opening match. Paraguay plays a frustratingly defensive style of soccer, which is going to give them a chance to win or draw any and every game in the Group Stage. That's why I think they're going to give the United States some fits, but I'm going to bet the 2-way moneyline just in case this match ends up being a defensive draw, we'll get our bet amount back. Don't be surprised if Paraguay pulls off an upset on Friday night.

In the aforementioned article, I wrote about the option to bet the two-way moneyline, also known as "tie no bet". For that type of bet, your wager will be considered a push if the game ends in a draw. With Paraguay relying on its defensive prowess in this game, that could be a good option when it comes to betting on the upset. You can do so at +200. If you'd rather stick with the more aggressive option, Paraguay is available on the three-way moneyline at ++320.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Register with DraftKings today and get $200 in bonus bets instantly after making a $5 bet. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code offer by making a $5 deposit and making your first $5 wager.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Add us as a preferred source on Google