Wyndham Championship Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Jackson Koivun, Alex Fitzpatrick and Justin Thomas

The final event of the PGA Tour regular season is here and the SI Golf betting panel is looking to make it two outrights in a row as we head into the playoffs. Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner cashed his Michael Thorbjorsen +4200 ticket last week and also hit his Davis Thompson Top 20 prop at +250.

Those are the weeks we all dream of!

The SI Golf betting panel features Kirschner, SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

Sedgefield Country Club is a classic target golf course. It’s not overly long, but what it lacks in distance, it makes up for in blind tee shots and doglegs. Positioning off the tee is key. So are approach shots from the 100-175 range. There are only two Par 5s on the course. Par 4 scoring is critical. All that said, expect to see how scores.

As mentioned, BK hit the Thor outright last week. That’s his second outright this year. The Model Manic also has a longshot and I have three outrights. Cody leads the prop bet market. Combined, we have seven FRL hits.

The FedExCup playoffs start next week, so this is the last full-field event of the regular season. After this, we have three more weeks. Then it’s the fall season. We got things rolling in the right direction last week. Now we want to finish the season off with a bang. Let’s hit a few more outrights down the stretch!

Here are our picks for the Wyndham Championship, with a full write-up on each pick below the graphic.

expert betting picks wyndham championship — SI betting picks for the Wyndham Championship. | sports illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Justin Thomas +2800 (BetMGM)

Justin Thomas seems like a great fit for this course considering how accurate he’s been off the tee this season and how good his iron play was before a pair of bad starts in Europe. Before the trip across the pond, he had posted six straight top 20 finishes, including a T4 at the PGA Championship. He has some solid value at 28-1 in a relatively weak field this week.

Brian Kirschner: Alex Fitzpatrick +4000 (FanDuel)

There has been an odd trend of many Wyndham winners where they have great form earlier in the summer, then have a bad result and then come out and win in North Carolina. Alex Fitz really fits that trend. He won back-to-back starts between the DP World Tour and PGA Tour and then had a consistent run of good play. He fell off a touch overseas, but I think he is ready to contend again and get his first solo win this week.

Brad Thomas: Hideki Matsuyama +2350 (DraftKings)

I’m tapping on the glass to see if anyone is paying attention to what Hideki is doing. He is going to win soon and that’s very clear. He’s ball striking out of this world and honestly his putter has been that bad. T14, T14, T3, T5. Those are his last stats. Outright price for me is still good even after the Cantlay news.

Byron Lindeque: Jackson Koivun +1800 (DraftKings)

He won his third tour start as a pro. This will be his fifth start as a pro. Simple math dictates he is winning one of his next two starts. I kid. But, the talent level is absurd and in a couple months time, we could look back on this dreadful 18-1 number and wonder why we weren’t hammering it, while he goes off at 10-1 in the fall events.

Cody Williams: Ben Kohles +5500 (DraftKings)

Full disclosure, I hate the board this week. But I do love the way that Ben Kohles is hitting the ball and continues to hit the ball. He’s first in fairways gained and second in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, not to mention being fifth in birdie or better gained percentage. The issue remains a wildly erratic putter, but I think that’s a recipe enough with the ball-striking for him to separate himself at Sedgefield.

Brian Giuffra: Alex Fitzpatrick +4000 (FanDuel)

I was looking for ballstrikera to target this week and Fitzpatrick is just that. He’s gained on approach in all but one of the 10 events he’s played since joining the PGA Tour full-time. His game is well-suited for this kind of course. His short game can be spotty, but he’s still making nearly four birdies per round. When his putter spikes, he’s in contention.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Emiliano Grillo +9000 (TheScore Bet)

Emiliano Grillo has quietly played some great golf the past two weeks, gaining over a stroke per round with his approach play at both the 3M Open and the Rocket Classic, resulting in finishes of T7 and T31. Unfortunately, his lack of length off the tee kept him from truly competing in those events, but now he gets to tee it up at a course where accuracy is valued over distance. That’s significant when it comes to his chances to be in the mix on Sunday.

Brian Kirschner: Nico Echavarria +11500 (DraftKings)

He is certainly not in the greatest of form, but this is a golfer who has three PGA Tour wins in three separate seasons and has starred down the likes of Shane Lowry and Justin Thomas to win them. Nico played in the final group here last year and, unfortunately, came undone and only managed to finish in the top 20. He played much better than the result. Nico is an accurate golfer who has success on Bermuda. He can redeem himself after last year.

Brad Thomas: Billy Horschel +11500 ( DraftKings)

Here I am again pounding the table for Billy Ho. Yes, Horschel is coming off a missed cut, and his tee-to-green numbers have been pretty bad. Let’s just ignore the Rocket Classic, focus on what he showed at the 3M Open, and look into his insane course history.

Byron Lindeque: Ben Kohles +5500 (DraftKings)

I regard him as the kid called “FedEx” in the movie “Cheaper by the Dozen”. A middle child of 12 who nobody really cared about or believed had much potential is exactly how I view Kohles on my outright card. So long as his number remains long shot worthy, I will be putting his nerdy accuracy (#1 in this field) and elite iron play (#1 for this course) back in rotation, hoping that he just sneaks off and wins this tournament after a close call with victory at the JDC not so long ago. What he does best is what this course demands most. He just needs to make some putts and we are FedEx’ing ourselves a fat little outright withdrawal.

Cody Williams: Billy Horschel +11500 (DraftKings)

I bet Brad didn’t think he’d be joined in pounding the table for Horschel, but here we are. Where I’ll push back slightly is that, outside of the Rocket Classic, Horschel has been playing quite well on approach. He’d gained in his previous five starts and six of his previous seven, good to have him at eighth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. When you combine that with his strong course history and a quietly steady short game, I think he has a chance to make noise as a big-time longshot.

Brian Giuffra: Michael Brennan +7200 (DraftKings)

I was surprised to see Brennan priced so high on DK when he’s in the 50/1 range on FanDuel. Yes, his putter and overall short game have been issues this year, but he’s also fifth in Tour in SG: OTT, 51st on approach and 33rd in birdie average. Another elite ball striker, I could see him being at the top of the leaderboard at week’s end.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Ryo Hisatsune +7000 (DraftKings)

Ryo Hisatsune has had back-to-back strong ballstriking performances, but he’s struggled on the greens. The last time he was able to get his putter rolling, he finished T9 at the John Deere Classic. He enters this week ranking fifth in the field in total strokes gained in the first round of events over the past three months. I’m banking on him rolling that into a strong Thursday this week.

Brian Kirschner: Sungjae Im +5000 (FanDuel)

Sungjae has some really great course history here and was FRL earlier this year at Valspar. He recently just gained with his irons, which he has struggled with. There are certain guys that play well here and he is one of them. I see no reason he can't be FRL.

Brad Thomas: Denny McCarthy +9200 (DraftKings)

Byron Lindeque: Ben Griffin +4600 (DraftKings)

Over the last 12 months, Ben Griffin has gained double the amount of strokes in R1 (+1.9) than any other round (+0.8, +0.6, +0.8). We now have this first round juggernaut heading to a golf course that he has finishes of 11th, 7th, and 4th in the last four starts here. He stands a fantastic chance to get across that Thursday finish first.

Cody Williams: Brian Harman +6800 (DraftKings)

After a T3 at the 3M Open a couple of weeks ago, maybe we can bank on some Brian Harman heaters at the end of the PGA Tour’s regular season. He’s solid across the board on short courses, the many 400-450 Par 4s, SG: Approach, and avoiding big scores over his last 24 rounds. I don’t know if it’s going to be enough for him to win, but I do think he has the ability right now to come out in the first round and go low.

Brian Giuffra: Ben Griffin +4700 (DraftKings)

Griffin won three times last year and has been close a few times this season. When he competes, he usually starts hot. He’s a good putter on Bermuda greens, has been sharp on approach the last several events and returns to a course where he was T11 last year and T7 the year before. Expect him to be in the mix this week.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Alex Fitzpatrick Top 10 incl. ties +390 (FanDuel)

Alex Fitzpatrick continues to be undervalued in the betting market. He is second in the field in strokes-gained tee to green over the past three months and was red-hot before a couple of bad starts in Europe. The last time he teed it up on American soil, he finished T7 at the Travelers Championship. He’s undervalued in a non-signature event this week.

Brian Kirschner: Brian Harman Top 20 +300 (FanDuel)

I think this number is a bit too high. Harman just finished top 5 at the 3M and is a great fit for this course. He has had mixed results but I think this price is certainly worth a shot at +300.

Brad Thomas: Blades Brown Top 30 +158 (DraftKings)

Blades Brown is a very good price to finish inside the top 30 this week. He’s played eight events this season and finished inside the top 30 in six of them. Based on those numbers alone, the price is good enough for me. But when you dig into his stats, it gets even better. Brown has consistently gained on approach, and even his putter has been pretty solid. This kid has a ton of game, and I think he’s in line for another high finish this week. Dig in deeper and you’ll see a kid who has been gaining just about everywhere in the bag.

Byron Lindeque: Mac Meissner Top 20 incl ties +195 (FanDuel)

Mac has played this event twice in his career and finished 12th in 2024 and 2nd last year. His driver is finding fairways routinely and his short game has been super solid the last couple of starts. I would imagine the comfort of Sedgefield sparks some better iron play, closer to his long-term baseline. In addition to the great course history, Maclure also thrives in easy scoring conditions (#8), which we can expect from a wet, soft, breathless week ahead. I am looking forward to some Meissmerizing golf from Mac over the next 4 days.

Cody Williams: Ben Kohles Top 20 incl. ties +210 (BetMGM)

I’m not going to miss out on Ben Kohles performing well this week. I just won’t. So let’s double up on him. Everything I said previously that would give him a shot to win this week obviously also makes me even more strongly about him as a Top 20 play this week.

Brian Giuffra: Alex Fitzpatrick incl. ties +162 (DraftKings)

That’s four straight wins in this market betting on one of my outrights to also finish Top 20. Why stop now?

Winning Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -19
Brian Kirschner: -18
Brad Thomas: -17
Byron Lindeque:-21
Cody Williams: -20
Brian Giuffra: -19

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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