Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 14

A pair of AL East squads begin a three-game weekend series on Friday night, as the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees and Gerrit Cole.

Toronto took three of four games against the Boston Red Sox to open the week, moving the 2025 AL champs to just two games out of a playoff spot in a wide open American League. The Yankees and Red Sox have solid cushions in the wild card race, but seven teams are within 3.5 games for the third and final spot.

New York was shut out on Thursday afternoon in a 1-0 loss to the Seattle Mariners, but it’s favored on the road on Friday with Gerrit Cole (3.35 ERA) set to make his 15th appearance of 2026.

He’ll take on another former Cy Young award winner in Shane Bieber, who has struggled over his last few starts. Can he turn things around against a New York offense that is in the bottom five in the league in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) over the last month?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this AL East showdown.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Yankees -1.5 (+113)
Blue Jays +1.5 (-136)

Moneyline

Yankees: -147
Blue Jays: +137

Total

8 (Over -102/Under -118)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

New York: Gerrit Cole (6-5, 3.35 ERA)
Toronto: Shane Bieber (3-2, 5.48 ERA)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

Date: Friday, Aug. 14
Time: 7:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Rogers Centre
How to Watch (TV): Apple TV
Yankees record: 68-53
Blue Jays record: 59-64

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bet

Shane Bieber OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-189)

This season, Bieber ranks in the 13th percentile in walk rate, allowing 23 free passes in 42.2 innings of work. The former Cy Young award winner has struggled with his command recently, walking six, two and three batters in his last three starts.

Overall, Bieber has allowed two or more walks in seven of his nine outings and three or more walks in five of those appearances.

Now, he’s taking on a New York team that is fourth in MLB in walk rate.

There’s a chance that Bieber doesn’t last long enough to clear this prop, but he’s gotten through 5.2 innings in each of his last two outings. That gives him a pretty solid floor when it comes to this market on Friday night.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Bieber has a 5.48 ERA this season, and he’s given up 16 hits, 10 runs and 11 walks over his last three outings (12.0 innings). The Jays are just 1-2 in those games and Bieber now ranks in the first percentile in MLB in both expected ERA (7.25) and expected batting average against (.302).

So, this could be a bounce-back spot for a New York offense that has struggled without Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger (both on the injured list).

The bright side? The Yankees have the best ERA in MLB, and Cole has been a big part of that. He ranks in the 73rd percentile in expected ERA and has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his seven starts since July 1.

Over that seven-game stretch, Cole has a 2.72 ERA and 2.31 FIP, striking out 53 batters in 43.0 innings.

The Jays have struggled on offense all season long, ranking 29th in MLB in runs scored, 29th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and dead last in OPS. I have a hard time trusting them against a quality starting pitcher, especially since Bieber has been lit up a few times over the last three weeks.

New York is 11 games over .500 on the road this season, and it should add to that on Friday night.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-147 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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