Ranking every team in college hoops from Grambling St. (351) to UNC (1)

1:26 | College Basketball
Is UNC worthy of preseason No. 1 ranking?
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Tuesday November 3rd, 2015

College basketball values drama over predictability. This is the trade-off that defines the sport, that captivates the nation for three weeks in spring, when the champion is decided by a 68-team single elimination bracket, a format that does little to ensure that the best team wins.

Sports Illustrated’s College Basketball Projection System is, in a way, the anti-NCAA tournament. Our statistical model simulates a given season 10,000 times in order to find the most frequent No. 1—this year, that would be North Carolina—and determine where the other 350 Division I teams fall in line. This marks the second year that SI’s preseason rankings have been decided by the projection system, a collaboration among economist Dan Hanner, SI producer and writer Chris Johnson and myself. The results from year one were promising: The system forecast—in exact order—the eventual top four teams in adjusted efficiency (Kentucky, Arizona, Wisconsin, Duke). It also predicted that title-game opponents Wisconsin and Duke would have the most efficient offenses, ranked all eight of the NCAA tournament No. 1 and No. 2 seeds among its Top 10, and produced the most accurate conference standings of any projection model, according to kenpom.com.

MORE: See SI.com's complete college basketball preseason coverage

For offense, the system projects every player’s efficiency and shot volume by incorporating his past performance, recruiting rankings, development curves for similar Division I players, the quality of his teammates and his coach’s ability to develop and maximize talent. Those stats are weighted based on the team's rotation—including human intel on who’s expected to earn minutes—then used to produce each team’s offensive efficiency projection. (The 10,000 simulations account for significant variance in individual performances as well as injury scenarios.) Team defensive efficiency projections are based on a blend of individual stats (rebound, steal and block percentages), roster turnover (if churn is low, then 2014-15 performances in areas such as two-point field goal percentage are given a lot of weight; if high, then a coach’s historical defensive résumé matters more), experience (veterans have fewer lapses) and height (taller frontcourts make for stingier D).

This is how our system ranks all 351 teams in 2015-16:

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

Proj. NCAA seed

1

North Carolina

120.3

2

95.4

45

1st in ACC

1 seed

2

Kansas

116.4

8

92.5

6

1st in B12

1 seed

3

Kentucky

117.4

5

93.3

12

1st in SEC

1 seed

4

Duke

118.8

3

94.9

37

2nd in ACC

1 seed

5

Maryland

115.6

10

92.5

8

1st in B10

2 seed

6

Virginia

111.9

33

90.3

2

3rd in ACC

2 seed

7

Wichita St.

114.0

19

92.2

3

1st in MVC

2 seed

8

Villanova

116.9

6

94.6

33

1st in BE

2 seed

9

Gonzaga

115.4

12

94.2

27

1st in WCC

3 seed

10

Iowa St.

116.9

7

96.1

50

2nd in B12

3 seed

11

Arizona

114.4

17

94.1

23

1st in P12

3 seed

12

Oklahoma

112.3

29

92.5

7

3rd in B12

3 seed

13

California

113.7

21

94.3

28

2nd in P12

4 seed

14

Indiana

120.4

1

99.9

113

2nd in B10

4 seed

15

Michigan St.

114.5

16

95.2

42

3rd in B10

4 seed

16

Utah

112.3

30

93.4

13

3rd in P12

4 seed

17

SMU

112.7

27

93.7

16

1st in Amer

Ineligible

18

Georgetown

113.0

24

94.1

22

2nd in BE

5 seed

19

Connecticut

111.4

35

92.7

9

2nd in Amer

5 seed

20

Texas

113.0

23

94.9

38

4th in B12

5 seed

21

Xavier

112.9

25

95.0

40

3rd in BE

5 seed

22

Louisville

109.7

52

92.4

5

4th in ACC

6 seed

23

Notre Dame

117.9

4

99.4

105

5th in ACC

6 seed

24

San Diego St.

105.7

111

89.4

1

1st in MWC

6 seed

25

Miami FL

113.7

20

96.3

55

6th in ACC

6 seed

This is not a season for juggernauts. North Carolina may be SI's No. 1, but this year's Tar Heels would've ranked eighth in our 2014-15 preseason projections. Our numbers like Maryland (5) but still have the Terps 2-4 spots lower than they are in most human polls. Coaching factors matter, and the fact that Mark Turgeon has never had a top-25 offense (in adjusted efficiency), and only twice had a top-25 defense in his entire head-coaching career holds Maryland back a bit in our model. Conversely, Kansas is No. 2 in part because coach Bill Self has had top-10 defenses for eight of the past 10 seasons; our model is confident that that trend will continue for the Jayhawks despite the loss of two rotation players to the NBA.

(And if you're looking for sleepers, SI sees Georgetown and Texas as top-20 teams even though they're unranked in human polls. Even though the Longhorns underachieved last season, new coach Shaka Smart has nine former top-100 recruits on his roster—more than enough talent with which to work some turnaround magic.)

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

Proj. NCAA seed

26

Purdue

112.1

31

95.0

39

4th in B10

7 seed

27

Michigan

116.0

9

98.2

88

5th in B10

7 seed

28

Ohio St.

112.6

28

95.4

44

6th in B10

7 seed

29

Texas A&M

110.9

42

94.2

26

2nd in SEC

7 seed

30

LSU

111.2

39

94.7

34

3rd in SEC

8 seed

31

Cincinnati

109.8

50

93.6

15

3rd in Amer

8 seed

32

West Virginia

110.8

45

94.4

30

5th in B12

8 seed

33

Vanderbilt

114.8

14

98.3

89

4th in SEC

8 seed

34

Wisconsin

114.0

18

97.7

79

7th in B10

9 seed

35

Oregon

114.5

15

98.6

91

4th in P12

9 seed

36

Butler

109.9

49

94.7

35

4th in BE

9 seed

37

Baylor

112.1

32

97.0

67

6th in B12

9 seed

38

Florida St.

108.5

63

94.0

20

7th in ACC

10 seed

39

NC State

111.8

34

97.1

69

8th in ACC

10 seed

40

Valparaiso

107.2

80

93.6

14

1st in Horz

10 seed

41

UCLA

110.8

44

96.7

60

5th in P12

10 seed

42

Syracuse

107.6

76

93.9

18

9th in ACC

11 seed

43

Florida

108.6

61

94.8

36

5th in SEC

11 seed

44

Rhode Island

105.7

110

92.3

4

1st in A10

11 seed

45

Pittsburgh

113.2

22

98.9

99

10th in ACC

11 seed

46

Marquette

107.1

82

93.8

17

5th in BE

First four

47

Boise St.

111.3

36

97.7

76

2nd in MWC

First four

48

Davidson

115.5

11

101.6

156

2nd in A10

First four

49

VCU

107.1

81

94.4

29

3rd in A10

First four

50

Tulsa

105.2

119

92.8

10

4th in Amer

 

It's worth explaining a few cases where SI's projection system differs widely from the preseason AP and Coaches' polls. Wisconsin is No. 17 in both human polls but No. 34 here; although Bo Ryan has a long history of exceeding expectations and developing underrated talent, our model balks at these Badgers' extreme lack of quality depth and experience to support co-stars Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig. In the case of LSU, a top-21 team in both polls that SI has 30th, we project freshman Ben Simmons to be a national player-of-year candidate, but don't see the Tigers being incredibly efficient overall: In Johnny Jones's 15 seasons as a head coach, he's never had a team finish higher than 56th in adjusted offensive efficiency, or 36th on defense.

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

Proj. NCAA seed

51

Dayton

106.4

93

94.0

19

4th in A10

 

52

South Carolina

106.4

92

94.1

24

6th in SEC

 

53

Illinois

108.4

67

96.2

52

8th in B10

 

54

Iowa

108.9

57

96.9

63

9th in B10

 

55

UNLV

107.8

73

96.0

48

3rd in MWC

 

56

Oregon St.

104.5

130

93.0

11

6th in P12

 

57

Stephen F. Austin

109.6

54

98.0

83

1st in Slnd

12 Seed

58

Richmond

106.6

87

95.4

47

5th in A10

 

59

BYU

111.1

40

99.6

109

2nd in WCC

 

60

Oklahoma St.

107.8

71

96.6

59

7th in B12

 

61

Temple

104.9

122

94.0

21

5th in Amer

 

62

Evansville

108.4

66

97.2

71

2nd in MVC

 

63

Georgia

105.8

108

95.1

41

7th in SEC

 

64

Memphis

107.4

78

96.5

58

6th in Amer

 

65

Stanford

108.3

68

97.4

74

7th in P12

 

66

Clemson

104.9

123

94.4

31

11th in ACC

 

67

Central Michigan

115.4

13

104.2

218

1st in MAC

12 Seed

68

Georgia Tech

104.5

129

94.5

32

12th in ACC

 

69

Northwestern

108.4

65

98.1

86

10th in B10

 

70

George Washington

108.2

69

98.1

85

6th in A10

 

71

Mississippi St.

107.7

75

97.9

82

8th in SEC

 

72

UAB

107.4

77

97.7

77

1st in CUSA

13 Seed

73

Wake Forest

108.7

59

98.9

98

13th in ACC

 

74

Old Dominion

105.2

116

96.1

49

2nd in CUSA

 

75

Arizona St.

107.0

83

97.7

78

8th in P12

 

This is outside-looking-in territory when it comes to the NCAA tournament. SI's projections have South Carolina (52) and Illinois (53) as the first two BCS-conference teams on the bad side of the bubble, and see Northwestern (69) remaining the lone major-conference team never to make the dance, after a 10th-place finish in the Big Ten. Stephen F. Austin (57) has Cinderella potential: The Lumberjacks made the tourney as a No. 12 seed last season, losing to Utah, and project to be back in 2016, with four seniors in their rotation.

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

Proj. NCAA seed

76

Colorado

106.3

96

97.2

72

9th in P12

 

77

Louisiana Lafayette

110.2

48

100.8

132

1st in SB

13 Seed

78

Virginia Tech

109.3

55

100.6

126

14th in ACC

 

79

Providence

107.7

74

99.2

101

6th in BE

 

80

Seton Hall

107.3

79

98.8

95

7th in BE

 

81

Creighton

109.8

51

101.0

141

8th in BE

 

82

Akron

106.2

99

97.7

80

2nd in MAC

 

83

USC

104.4

131

96.1

51

10th in P12

 

84

Illinois St.

105.0

121

96.8

61

3rd in MVC

 

85

Northern Iowa

105.5

114

97.4

75

4th in MVC

 

86

UC Irvine

104.2

133

96.3

54

1st in BW

13 Seed

87

Auburn

105.8

107

97.8

81

9th in SEC

 

88

Nebraska

101.8

190

94.1

25

11th in B10

 

89

Mississippi

109.3

56

101.0

140

10th in SEC

 

90

Arkansas

106.8

84

98.8

96

11th in SEC

 

91

Iona

112.9

26

104.6

224

1st in MAAC

13 Seed

92

New Mexico

104.2

139

97.1

70

4th in MWC

 

93

Hawaii

104.0

144

97.0

68

2nd in BW

 

94

Stony Brook

103.0

160

96.5

57

1st in AE

14 Seed

95

Pepperdine

102.7

167

96.2

53

3rd in WCC

 

96

Belmont

110.8

43

103.8

205

1st in OVC

14 Seed

97

Penn St.

101.7

193

95.4

46

12th in B10

 

98

High Point

109.6

53

103.0

188

1st in BSth

14 Seed

99

Utah St.

108.5

62

102.8

185

5th in MWC

 

100

Colorado St.

108.2

70

102.6

183

6th in MWC

 

The fact that Providence (79) projects so low as a team—SI's model sees a sixth-place finish in the Big East and no NCAA tourney bid for the Friars—hurts Kris Dunn's candidacy for the Naismith and Wooden Awards, even if he might be the nation's best all-around point guard. From this group, keep an eye on Iona (91), Belmont (96) and High Point (98)—three projected small-conference champions with high-powered offenses that, if they catch fire on the right day in March, could pull off NCAA tournament upsets.

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

Proj. NCAA seed

101

Houston

106.4

94

100.9

134

7th in Amer

 

102

Vermont

104.0

142

98.7

92

2nd in AE

 

103

South Dakota St.

106.2

98

100.7

129

1st in Sum

14 Seed

104

Georgia St.

106.3

95

101.0

135

2nd in SB

 

105

Princeton

108.6

60

103.2

191

1st in Ivy

15 Seed

106

Texas Tech

105.6

112

100.4

121

8th in B12

 

107

Middle Tennessee

103.8

149

98.7

93

3rd in CUSA

 

108

Columbia

111.2

38

105.7

251

2nd in Ivy

 

109

Fresno St.

106.0

104

101.3

147

7th in MWC

 

110

Tennessee

106.2

100

101.5

150

12th in SEC

 

111

Alabama

104.2

135

99.6

110

13th in SEC

 

112

Washington

105.2

117

100.6

127

11th in P12

 

113

St. Bonaventure

105.6

113

101.0

136

7th in A10

 

114

Minnesota

106.1

101

101.5

151

13th in B10

 

115

Saint Joseph's

101.3

198

96.9

65

8th in A10

 

116

Hofstra

110.5

47

105.8

252

1st in CAA

15 Seed

117

TCU

101.6

196

97.3

73

9th in B12

 

118

Long Beach St.

106.1

103

101.6

154

3rd in BW

 

119

Kansas St.

101.2

200

97.0

66

10th in B12

 

120

Loyola Chicago

106.4

91

102.1

170

5th in MVC

 

121

Albany

104.6

127

100.5

124

3rd in AE

 

122

North Dakota St.

100.3

225

96.5

56

2nd in Sum

 

123

Cal Poly

103.3

156

99.4

106

4th in BW

 

124

New Mexico St.

103.9

147

100.1

116

1st in WAC

15 Seed

125

UNC Wilmington

104.2

132

100.6

125

2nd in CAA

 

126

Wofford

103.0

162

99.4

108

1st in SC

15 Seed

127

Washington St.

108.4

64

104.7

226

12th in P12

 

128

Chattanooga

104.7

124

101.3

144

2nd in SC

 

129

Harvard

100.0

229

96.8

62

3rd in Ivy

 

130

St. John's

104.2

137

100.8

133

9th in BE

 

131

UTEP

102.9

164

99.7

111

4th in CUSA

 

132

Saint Mary's

104.0

143

100.8

131

4th in WCC

 

133

NC Central

102.6

174

99.4

107

1st in MEAC

16 Seed

134

Western Michigan

105.2

118

102.2

171

3rd in MAC

 

135

UC Santa Barbara

105.4

115

102.5

177

5th in BW

 

136

Indiana St.

101.2

204

98.4

90

6th in MVC

 

137

Duquesne

110.9

41

107.9

301

9th in A10

 

138

Yale

103.2

157

100.5

123

4th in Ivy

 

139

Oakland

111.3

37

108.4

309

2nd in Horz

 

140

Coastal Carolina

104.7

126

102.2

172

2nd in BSth

 

141

NJIT

106.3

97

103.8

203

1st in ASun

16 Seed

142

James Madison

106.5

89

104.2

215

3rd in CAA

 

143

DePaul

106.6

88

104.4

220

10th in BE

 

144

Massachusetts

103.8

148

101.8

160

10th in A10

 

145

Missouri

104.2

136

102.2

173

14th in SEC

 

146

La Salle

100.7

215

98.8

94

11th in A10

 

147

Canisius

106.1

102

104.1

213

2nd in MAAC

 

148

Southern Illinois

100.6

218

98.9

97

7th in MVC

 

149

North Florida

106.0

106

104.2

216

2nd in ASun

 

150

Kent St.

103.7

152

101.9

164

4th in MAC

 

Although Yale (138) was picked to win the Ivy League in its preseason media poll, SI's projections view Princeton (105) or Columbia (108) as the conference's two strongest teams. Either one could be a dangerous 15-seed in the NCAA tournament. But the most important thing we forecast in this group is that new Atlantic Sun member NJIT (141)—which has been steadily improving since a 1-30 season in '08-09—will edge out North Florida (149) for the conference title.

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

Proj. NCAA seed

151

Louisiana Monroe

99.6

237

98.1

84

3rd in SB

 

152

Detroit

103.9

145

102.3

175

3rd in Horz

 

153

Northeastern

104.0

141

102.5

181

4th in CAA

 

154

Tennessee Martin

106.5

90

105.0

233

2nd in OVC

 

155

Rider

100.6

217

99.3

104

3rd in MAAC

 

156

Western Kentucky

101.6

195

100.3

119

5th in CUSA

 

157

Louisiana Tech

102.5

175

101.3

145

6th in CUSA

 

158

Boston University

107.8

72

106.6

266

1st in Pat

First Four

159

Murray St.

104.1

140

102.9

187

3rd in OVC

 

160

Winthrop

103.0

161

102.1

166

3rd in BSth

 

161

Boston College

102.3

178

101.4

149

15th in ACC

 

162

Green Bay

96.0

300

95.2

43

4th in Horz

 

163

Mount St. Mary's

101.2

201

100.4

120

1st in NEC

First Four

164

Milwaukee

102.0

186

101.2

143

5th in Horz

 

165

Miami OH

101.7

192

101.0

138

5th in MAC

 

166

Lehigh

100.6

219

100.0

114

2nd in Pat

 

167

William & Mary

108.7

58

108.0

303

5th in CAA

 

168

Montana

102.1

185

101.8

161

1st in BSky

First Four

169

Buffalo

100.3

224

100.3

118

6th in MAC

 

170

Morehead St.

102.6

170

102.8

186

4th in OVC

 

171

East Tennessee St.

102.2

181

102.4

176

3rd in SC

 

172

Arkansas Little Rock

104.5

128

104.8

229

4th in SB

 

173

San Diego

97.9

273

98.1

87

5th in WCC

 

174

Weber St.

103.4

154

103.8

200

2nd in BSky

 

175

Mercer

102.7

168

103.0

189

4th in SC

 

176

Wright St.

98.6

261

99.2

102

6th in Horz

 

177

Texas Southern

106.6

86

107.3

281

1st in SWAC

First Four

178

Wyoming

98.4

266

99.1

100

8th in MWC

 

179

Cal St. Bakersfield

102.3

180

103.0

190

2nd in WAC

 

180

Santa Clara

103.9

146

104.7

225

6th in WCC

 

181

East Carolina

106.8

85

107.6

295

8th in Amer

 

182

Pacific

103.0

163

104.1

210

7th in WCC

 

183

Missouri St.

99.4

245

100.5

122

8th in MVC

 

184

Eastern Michigan

99.6

238

100.8

130

7th in MAC

 

185

Ball St.

102.0

187

103.3

194

8th in MAC

 

186

Bucknell

103.7

151

105.1

238

3rd in Pat

 

187

Army

103.1

159

104.6

223

4th in Pat

 

188

Northwestern St.

110.6

46

112.3

338

2nd in Slnd

 

189

Dartmouth

102.1

184

103.7

199

5th in Ivy

 

190

Portland

104.2

138

105.9

254

8th in WCC

 

191

Fordham

102.1

183

103.8

202

12th in A10

 

192

Monmouth

100.9

213

102.6

184

4th in MAAC

 

193

Texas St.

95.1

314

96.9

64

5th in SB

 

194

Sam Houston St.

99.2

250

101.2

142

3rd in Slnd

 

195

American

99.9

232

101.9

162

5th in Pat

 

196

UT Arlington

100.5

221

102.5

180

6th in SB

 

197

Oral Roberts

104.7

125

107.0

277

3rd in Sum

 

198

George Mason

102.8

165

105.1

237

13th in A10

 

199

Tulane

101.1

209

103.3

193

9th in Amer

 

200

UCF

105.8

109

108.3

307

10th in Amer

 

Boston College (161), which returns just 20.2% of its minutes from a team that went 13-19 last season, projects to be the second-worst team in any BCS conference. Texas Southern (177), meanwhile, projects to be the weakest team to make the NCAA tournament, by winning the SWAC and appearing in the First Four. SI also forecasts that Boston University (158) will finish atop the Patriot League, setting it up to make its first trip to the NCAAs since 2011.

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

201

UC Riverside

97.0

290

99.3

103

6th in BW

202

Penn

101.7

194

104.1

214

6th in Ivy

203

Manhattan

98.3

267

100.7

128

5th in MAAC

204

Nevada

101.1

208

103.6

198

9th in MWC

205

New Hampshire

98.8

256

101.3

146

4th in AE

206

Cleveland St.

99.6

240

102.1

169

7th in Horz

207

Delaware

101.3

199

103.9

206

6th in CAA

208

Siena

103.7

153

106.4

261

6th in MAAC

209

Toledo

102.6

171

105.5

249

9th in MAC

210

Fairfield

98.8

259

101.7

158

7th in MAAC

211

Eastern Washington

105.1

120

108.2

306

3rd in BSky

212

Arkansas St.

100.3

223

103.3

192

7th in SB

213

Cal St. Fullerton

103.2

158

106.3

259

7th in BW

214

Saint Louis

97.3

283

100.3

117

14th in A10

215

Eastern Kentucky

99.2

249

102.3

174

5th in OVC

216

UC Davis

102.1

182

105.4

243

8th in BW

217

Ohio

102.6

173

105.8

253

10th in MAC

218

Nebraska Omaha

102.8

166

106.2

258

4th in Sum

219

IUPUI

97.7

275

101.0

139

5th in Sum

220

Rice

100.3

222

103.8

201

7th in CUSA

221

South Dakota

100.3

226

104.1

208

6th in Sum

222

South Florida

101.4

197

105.3

242

11th in Amer

223

Hampton

96.3

295

100.0

115

2nd in MEAC

224

Portland St.

104.2

134

108.3

308

4th in BSky

225

College of Charleston

99.3

246

103.4

195

7th in CAA

226

St. Francis NY

97.4

280

101.7

159

2nd in NEC

227

Elon

99.6

241

104.1

212

8th in CAA

228

Air Force

102.6

172

107.4

285

10th in MWC

229

Sacred Heart

100.0

230

104.9

232

3rd in NEC

230

Southern

97.1

286

101.9

163

2nd in SWAC

231

Texas A&M CC

99.4

242

104.6

222

4th in Slnd

232

Charlotte

100.6

216

106.0

255

8th in CUSA

233

LIU Brooklyn

98.9

253

104.2

217

4th in NEC

234

Grand Canyon

106.0

105

111.7

335

3rd in WAC

235

Northern Kentucky

102.0

188

107.5

288

8th in Horz

236

IPFW

100.9

211

106.5

262

7th in Sum

237

Marshall

99.3

248

104.8

228

9th in CUSA

238

FIU

96.7

294

102.1

168

10th in CUSA

239

Northern Illinois

97.1

288

102.5

178

11th in MAC

240

Towson

99.8

233

105.5

248

9th in CAA

241

UMKC

99.4

243

105.4

244

4th in WAC

242

Northern Arizona

99.1

251

105.1

236

5th in BSky

243

Appalachian St.

99.3

247

105.2

240

8th in SB

244

Navy

99.7

235

105.7

250

6th in Pat

245

Holy Cross

101.1

205

107.3

283

7th in Pat

246

Radford

101.2

203

107.4

286

4th in BSth

247

Western Carolina

98.9

255

105.1

234

5th in SC

248

UNC Asheville

101.1

207

107.5

290

5th in BSth

249

Denver

100.9

212

107.3

282

8th in Sum

250

Eastern Illinois

99.9

231

106.3

260

6th in OVC

There are a few teams in this group with plausible shots at the NCAA tournament, including Hampton (223), which projects to finish second in the MEAC, St. Francis N.Y. (226), which projects to finish second in the NEC, and Southern (230), which projects to finish second in the SWAC. After that it's a sad bunch, including the likely last-place teams in the Atlantic 10 (St. Louis, at 214) and AAC (South Florida, at 222nd).

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

251

Robert Morris

98.8

257

105.2

239

5th in NEC

252

Quinnipiac

97.5

278

103.8

204

8th in MAAC

253

Drake

102.5

177

109.1

316

9th in MVC

254

Wagner

98.1

270

104.5

221

6th in NEC

255

Drexel

97.2

284

103.6

197

10th in CAA

256

UNC Greensboro

97.6

277

104.1

209

6th in SC

257

Furman

101.0

210

107.8

299

7th in SC

258

Norfolk St.

100.8

214

107.6

293

3rd in MEAC

259

San Francisco

98.4

265

105.1

235

9th in WCC

260

Florida Gulf Coast

98.1

269

104.8

231

3rd in ASun

261

Incarnate Word

102.5

176

109.6

320

5th in Slnd

262

Lipscomb

100.6

220

107.6

292

4th in ASun

263

Brown

97.3

282

104.1

211

7th in Ivy

264

Sacramento St.

102.3

179

109.6

321

6th in BSky

265

Howard

93.1

330

99.9

112

4th in MEAC

266

Idaho

101.9

189

109.4

317

7th in BSky

267

Bryant

100.1

228

107.6

294

7th in NEC

268

Lamar

97.9

271

105.4

245

6th in Slnd

269

Longwood

99.0

252

106.6

267

6th in BSth

270

North Texas

94.7

318

102.1

167

11th in CUSA

271

Jacksonville

101.8

191

109.8

323

5th in ASun

272

Georgia Southern

94.5

320

101.9

165

9th in SB

273

SE Louisiana

97.1

287

104.8

227

7th in Slnd

274

Lafayette

102.7

169

110.8

329

8th in Pat

275

Southern Utah

99.8

234

107.7

298

8th in BSky

276

VMI

98.4

264

106.5

265

8th in SC

277

Illinois Chicago

99.6

239

107.8

300

9th in Horz

278

Loyola MD

94.8

317

102.6

182

9th in Pat

279

USC Upstate

98.6

263

106.9

275

6th in ASun

280

SE Missouri St.

98.9

254

107.3

284

7th in OVC

281

South Alabama

101.1

206

109.8

324

10th in SB

282

Gardner Webb

99.4

244

107.9

302

7th in BSth

283

Tennessee St.

93.3

326

101.4

148

8th in OVC

284

St. Francis PA

95.9

304

104.2

219

8th in NEC

285

Hartford

98.8

258

107.4

287

5th in AE

286

Florida Atlantic

99.7

236

108.4

310

12th in CUSA

287

Montana St.

97.9

272

106.7

271

9th in BSky

288

Rutgers

93.1

329

101.6

155

14th in B10

289

Youngstown St.

103.7

150

113.2

344

10th in Horz

290

Bowling Green

93.8

324

102.5

179

12th in MAC

291

Austin Peay

96.3

296

105.4

246

9th in OVC

292

Bradley

92.6

333

101.6

152

10th in MVC

293

Houston Baptist

101.2

202

111.1

332

8th in Slnd

294

Binghamton

97.2

285

106.8

273

6th in AE

295

Loyola Marymount

100.1

227

110.2

327

10th in WCC

296

Nicholls St.

95.6

310

105.3

241

9th in Slnd

297

Charleston Southern

97.3

281

107.2

279

8th in BSth

298

Seattle

92.2

335

101.6

157

5th in WAC

299

Tennessee Tech

98.3

268

108.5

312

10th in OVC

300

New Orleans

97.4

279

107.6

291

10th in Slnd

This is the point in the rankings where it's difficult to find nice things to say. SI forecasts that Rutgers (288) will be the worst team from a BCS conference by a huge margin: The Scarlet Knights are the only BCS-conference team outside our top 200, and we project them to go 1-17 in the Big Ten. Rutgers' projections are so bleak that we would still have them finishing last if they were in the CAA. Speaking of the CAA, star Damion Lee's transfer to Louisville hurt Drexel (255) in a big way; the Dragons project to finish last in the CAA without him. Meanwhile, there isn't much to be hyped about in Dunk City, as Florida Gulf Coast (260) projects to finish third in a weak Atlantic Sun.

Rank

Team

Proj. Off. Eff.

Off. Rank

Proj. Def. Eff.

Def. Rank

Conf. Rank

301

Saint Peter's

91.4

343

101.0

137

9th in MAAC

302

Southern Miss

96.7

292

107.0

276

13th in CUSA

303

Alabama St.

96.7

293

107.2

280

3rd in SWAC

304

Jackson St.

91.6

341

101.6

153

4th in SWAC

305

UTSA

98.6

262

109.5

319

14th in CUSA

306

Campbell

96.0

298

106.7

272

9th in BSth

307

Western Illinois

93.1

331

103.5

196

9th in Sum

308

MD Eastern Shore

95.6

309

106.7

270

5th in MEAC

309

Jacksonville St.

95.9

303

107.0

278

11th in OVC

310

Northern Colorado

103.3

155

115.4

350

10th in BSky

311

Cornell

95.0

315

106.5

264

8th in Ivy

312

Niagara

96.1

297

108.1

304

10th in MAAC

313

North Carolina A&T

95.7

308

107.7

296

6th in MEAC

314

Utah Valley

94.2

322

106.1

257

6th in WAC

315

Troy

94.6

319

106.5

263

11th in SB

316

Idaho St.

95.9

305

108.1

305

11th in BSky

317

Chicago St.

94.1

323

106.6

268

7th in WAC

318

Presbyterian

98.7

260

112.0

336

10th in BSth

319

Samford

97.6

276

111.0

331

9th in SC

320

UMass Lowell

92.0

338

104.8

230

7th in AE

321

Morgan St.

95.2

313

108.9

313

7th in MEAC

322

Bethune Cookman

96.0

299

109.9

325

8th in MEAC

323

SIU Edwardsville

92.1

337

105.5

247

12th in OVC

324

North Dakota

95.0

316

109.4

318

12th in BSky

325

Fairleigh Dickinson

97.0

289

112.0

337

9th in NEC

326

Cal St. Northridge

93.1

332

107.7

297

9th in BW

327

Colgate

96.0

301

111.2

333

10th in Pat

328

South Carolina St.

91.9

340

106.8

274

9th in MEAC

329

Abilene Christian

95.4

312

110.9

330

11th in Slnd

330

UMBC

93.1

328

108.5

311

8th in AE

331

Alabama A&M

96.8

291

112.8

342

5th in SWAC

332

Central Connecticut

93.6

325

109.1

314

10th in NEC

333

McNeese St.

95.8

306

111.7

334

12th in Slnd

334

Marist

90.6

347

106.0

256

11th in MAAC

335

Delaware St.

94.3

321

110.7

328

10th in MEAC

336

Kennesaw St.

95.9

302

112.6

340

7th in ASun

337

Maine

95.6

311

112.4

339

9th in AE

338

Liberty

93.2

327

109.6

322

11th in BSth

339

Savannah St.

88.2

348

104.0

207

11th in MEAC

340

Arkansas Pine Bluff

91.2

345

107.5

289

6th in SWAC

341

Central Arkansas

95.7

307

112.9

343

13th in Slnd

342

UTRGV

91.5

342

109.1

315

8th in WAC

343

Prairie View A&M

91.4

344

110.0

326

7th in SWAC

344

The Citadel

97.8

274

119.0

351

10th in SC

345

Stetson

92.1

336

112.7

341

8th in ASun

346

Mississippi Valley St.

91.9

339

113.8

345

8th in SWAC

347

Coppin St.

92.2

334

114.4

347

12th in MEAC

348

Alcorn St.

91.0

346

114.1

346

9th in SWAC

349

San Jose St.

84.7

350

106.7

269

11th in MWC

350

Florida A&M

85.3

349

114.9

348

13th in MEAC

351

Grambling St.

78.5

351

115.0

349

10th in SWAC

Grambling State (351) projects to be the worst team in Division I for the second straight season. The Tigers are expected to be so inept that they trail even the second-worst team, Florida A&M (350) by a substantial margin. San Jose State's (349) continued presence near the bottom is perhaps most alarming, as it projects to be the worst team from a multi-bid conference and go 1-17 in the Mountain West.

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