Women’s College Basketball Coaches With the Most at Stake in March

In this week’s roundtable, our staff looks at who has the most pressure heading into tournament time.

With Michigan on track to finish with one of its best seasons under coach Kim Barnes Arico, the coach will now be tasked with making sure that success carries over to the tournament. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the regular season coming to a close this weekend, it’s almost time to prove who can translate their success to March. And of course, which coaches can get the most out of their teams during elimination games. 

For this week’s roundtable, our writers and editors look at who has the most to prove come tournament time and also evaluate the best of the rest after UCLA in the Big Ten. 

Which coach has the most to prove this March?

Emma Baccellieri: Kim Barnes Arico. I wouldn’t say that she has the most at stake—Michigan could very well finish this season with its best record since Barnes Arico was hired in 2012. There’ll be no arguing with that achievement regardless of what happens in March. But I do believe that she has much to prove. After a few unremarkable seasons for the Wolverines, they now have their most talented roster in years, and what Barnes Arico gets from this young group may say a lot about the future in Ann Arbor. Despite all the skill packed into this sophomore class—Syla Swords, Olivia Olson, Mila Holloway—they have looked strikingly uneven as a unit at times this year. The only team to take UConn down to the final possession this season is the same one that needed two overtimes to get through Oregon. It feels equally plausible to think that the Wolverines could go to the Final Four or to see them spending a fourth consecutive year watching the Sweet Sixteen from home. Barnes Arico has proved that she can assemble a great roster and that she can lead it to real success in the regular season. Next month will prove whether she can help the Wolverines reach their potential in March. 

Clare Brennan: Cori Close. There is a now-or-never narrative surrounding UCLA this season. With this year’s NCAA tournament marking the end of the road for most of a very talented roster, the pressure is on for the Bruins to win it all. Lauren Betts, Kiki Rice, Gabriela Jaquez and Gianna Kneepkens are all projected to be first-round picks in the upcoming 2026 WNBA draft, and there is a desire to bid these stars a fitting farewell. Yes, Close boasts an impressive résumé, leading UCLA to nine NCAA tournament berths, including the program’s first Final Four appearance last year, but there are great expectations given the talent of this class. Yet, the Bruins have a very tall task ahead of them, with an undefeated UConn side and a hot South Carolina team charging into the postseason. Should this star-studded UCLA squad leave college without a title, Close may have some questions to answer about a program facing a crossroads. 

Dan Falkenheim: Kim Caldwell. Let’s put the job security conversation aside for now. Caldwell is under contract through 2030, and she has delivered consecutive top-10 recruiting classes after her predecessor, Kellie Harper, had signed only one five-star recruit in her final three years. Caldwell has to contend with something more existential: whether her own coaching identity can survive if Tennessee is to regain its former glory. She has not proven that her full-court pressure, fast-paced, three-point-happy approach produces consistent results against the NCAA’s best teams. (Consider: Tennessee has a 6–15 record against top 25 opponents during Caldwell’s tenure.) Caldwell also hasn’t sounded or looked like a motivating leader in trying times. She said she had a team “that’ll just quit on you” after losing to South Carolina. She appeared to blow past Ole Miss coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin after losing to the Rebels. ESPN’s Andraya Carter (a Tennessee alumna) put it bluntly when she said the Vols have “no belief.” If Caldwell can’t turn things around after hydroplaning through the SEC and find proof of concept in March, then she might have to reevaluate her entire ethos. Recruits will catch on sooner rather than later. 

Who is UCLA’s biggest threat in the Big Ten? 

Baccellieri: Iowa. Admittedly, UCLA trounced Iowa, 88–65, when they met earlier this month. But there’s a lot to make the idea of a rematch compelling. If no team in the Big Ten has a singular answer for Betts, Iowa at least has the makings of a serious joint response committee, in Ava Heiden and Hannah Stuelke. There are few duos as productive in the paint as these two are when at their best. It’s that kind of power that will be crucial to potentially challenging UCLA. And there are some interesting similarities in how these rosters share the ball. They rank No. 2 (UCLA) and No. 3 (Iowa) in assists per game in Division I. UCLA certainly has the edge here. (Iowa losing Taylor McCabe to a torn ACL does not help.) But the Hawkeyes have just enough similarities in key areas to potentially hold their own.  

Brennan: Michigan. Yes, the Wolverines’ loss to Iowa on Sunday was downright ugly, mustering just 44 points in the road defeat. Still, I don’t think it’s time for Michigan to hit the panic button. Some nights you just go cold, as the Wolverines did in Iowa City, shooting just 31% from the field (well below their season average of 47.3%). Michigan also struggled to contain Heiden, who finished with 24 points. Iowa outscored Michigan in the paint 40–22, with the Wolverines unable to stop the Hawkeyes inside. That is certainly something the Wolverines will need to improve on if they want to challenge Betts and UCLA. But it’s worth noting that Michigan came within three points of the Bruins when the two teams met in early February, falling 69–66 at home. Despite recent hiccups, Barnes Arico’s team has remained steady in its ability to smother opponents on defense with its high pressure, which should help Michigan in a tournament setting. The Wolverines also have a trio of prolific guards—the sophomores Emma mentioned above—who are all averaging above 12 points per game. 

Falkenheim: Ohio State. The Buckeyes have one thing the rest of the non-UCLA Big Ten teams are missing: a true star. Sophomore guard Jaloni Cambridge has averaged 26.3 points per game in conference play—the second best average of any player from a power conference—and dropped 28 in Ohio State’s last matchup against UCLA. She doesn’t need to power the Buckeyes all by herself, either. Kennedy Cambridge, Jaloni’s older sister, leads the Big Ten in steals, and Chance Gray is having a career-best shooting season in Columbus. Together, they form a guard trio that can go toe-to-toe with the Bruins. (The Buckeyes’ weakness is on the glass, which hurt them in Wednesday night’s loss to Michigan. If they can shore that up for one game, then an upset in a potential contest against UCLA isn’t out of the question.)

Riser of the Week 

Virginia: Through January, the Cavaliers had played well but were missing a significant win to show for it. February has been a different story. Virginia beat Notre Dame at home on Feb. 8 as junior guard Kymora Johnson outscored Hannah Hidalgo and won against a pesky Stanford team at Maples Pavilion on Feb. 15. That led to Sunday, when graduate student guard Romi Levy hit a late go-ahead three to help the Cavaliers beat then-No. 8 Louisville on the road. The win bolsters Virginia’s position among other bubble teams, and could be enough to help the Cavaliers reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017–18. —D.F.

Faller of the Week 

Tennessee: Three losses last week—on the road against Ole Miss and Oklahoma, and at home against Texas A&M—have sent the Lady Vols out of the AP Top 25 poll for the first time since Dec. 2, 2024. It’s how Tennessee has lost that has made this fall seem sharp. The Vols surrendered at least 80 points in three consecutive games for the first time all season, coughed the ball up more than 25 times twice and failed to generate at least 20 turnovers in all three games. (Tennessee is 25–3 when it causes at least 20 turnovers during Caldwell’s tenure.) The skid will likely continue this week, as the Vols play No. 6 LSU on Thursday and No. 5 Vanderbilt on Sunday. —D.F.

Highlights of the Week 

Speaking of the Big Ten, the classic Michigan–Ohio State rivalry hit the court Wednesday night and didn’t disappoint. The wild ending started with Sword’s clutch three in the final second of the play clock. 

Syla. FREAKING. Swords.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/nEyKCSgrWd

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) February 26, 2026

Then free throws from Cambridge tied the game up and sent it to overtime, where Olson’s jumper sealed the deal for the Wolverines. 

Game winner from Olivia Olson#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/d5TYDDOCTw

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) February 26, 2026

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