Women’s Basketball Bubble Watch: Virginia and Clemson Make a Statement

With selection Sunday on the horizon, teams on the bubble have little time left to make a case for the NCAA tournament.

Kymora Johnson (right) and Virginia took down No. 8 Louisville on Sunday. | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

With a week left in college basketball’s regular season, it’s time to beef up the NCAA tournament résumé. 

At the top, No. 1 UConn remains undefeated while Texas and Vanderbilt battle for the final top seed. The top 16 is packed with powerhouse teams, all hoping to remain inside that threshold to host first- and second-round NCAA tournament games before it moves to neutral sites.

Over the past week, we saw some movement on the bubble with teams like Virginia and Clemson putting together massive victories over top-10 teams, while on the other side of the spectrum, Stanford continues to struggle. Teams on the bubble have minimal time left before conference tournament action begins, making the last few days of regular-season play critical.

Here’s a look at the bubble for the women’s NCAA tournament as things currently stand just a few short weeks away from Selection Sunday.

Last four byes

• Virginia
• Clemson
• Villanova
• Princeton

Our top cluster of bubble teams is highlighted by a pair of squads coming off impressive top-10 wins on Sunday: Virginia’s victory over No. 8 Louisville and Clemson’s win against No. 9 Duke. That’s not an automatic “in” for either side, but the big wins came at the right time and both teams only play tournament hopefuls the rest of the way.

Villanova is 22–6 and winners of seven of its last eight games. The sole loss in that stretch came to UConn, so you can pretty much throw that game out of the window.

Then there’s No. 25 Princeton. The Tigers are 21–3 and lead the way in the Ivy League, but they lost twice to Columbia, who they could see again in the conference tournament. Should Princeton not become the Ivy League’s automatic qualifier, the Tigers should make the 68-team field anyway. Two Ivies may make it in, but Princeton has the best shot for an at-large bid should the Tigers drop a game.

Last four in

• Virginia Tech
• Syracuse
• Colorado
• Rhode Island

Colorado has looked as good as any bubble team lately with wins over TCU and Texas Tech in the past two weeks, but a tough home loss to Utah on Tuesday night makes the Buffaloes’ tournament case fringe at best. Syracuse is in good form as of late despite a recent loss to North Carolina State. The Orange are 21–6 and beat the red-hot Clemson squad on Feb. 15. After a down year last season, Syracuse is 11–5 in ACC play, with its only losses coming to likely tournament teams, while two winnable games remain in the regular-season slate.

The Hokies are looking for their first tournament bid since Kenny Brooks left for Kentucky two seasons ago. Megan Duffy’s Virginia Tech team has had an up-and-down season, but it recently took No. 21 North Carolina to overtime and has a finale against rival Virginia who just defeated No. 10 Louisville.

The Atlantic 10 may not get multiple bids, but Rhode Island certainly has an at-large case that’s tough to dismiss. Led by coach Tammi Reiss, the Rams are 24–3 with losses to Princeton, Rutgers and La Salle—the disappointing first A-10 loss that came on Feb. 18. Richmond is slightly higher than Rhode Island in the NET rankings. If neither wins the A-10 tournament and the automatic bid that comes with it, I like the Rams to still make the field as an at-large team for the school’s first NCAA tournament bid since 1996.

First four out

• Mississippi State
• Arizona State
• Columbia
• Florida

Columbia could very well make the NCAA tournament as the Ivy League’s automatic qualifier. The Lions have defeated No. 25 Princeton twice this season, but should the Ivy’s auto bid go elsewhere, early-season losses to Richmond and Saint Joseph’s, plus conference losses to Cornell and Penn could be difficult to look past. The Ivy could get multiple teams in, but Princeton’s case currently looks better for an at-large bid despite two losses to Columbia.

In the Big 12, Arizona State has had a nice season under first-year coach Molly Miller, but a 90–64 blowout loss at Iowa State on Wednesday was untimely for the Sun Devils. ASU finishes its regular season with strong opportunities to enhance its bubble standing, though, particularly with a finale against No. 20 Texas Tech on Sunday.

Mississippi State and Florida each have difficult games to finish the regular season, but an upset against a ranked opponent would be a nice final impression for the committee. That’s a tall task, though, with the Bulldogs playing No. 6 LSU in their finale, while the Gators have two ranked games left against No. 19 Ole Miss and No. 23 Georgia.

Next four out

• Kansas
• Stanford
• BYU
• South Dakota State

Stanford is on the verge of missing the tournament field for the second straight season. Kate Paye took over for longtime coach Tara VanDerveer before last season, and the Cardinal are hoping for their first March Madness appearance in the post-VanDerveer era this year. A dreadful end to the season has the Cardinal on the outside looking in, however. After a 15–4 start, Stanford has lost eight of its last 10 games, a rough stretch that includes losses to fellow bubble teams Virginia, Virginia Tech, Miami and California. At 17–12, Stanford has to be perfect the rest of the way to get in.

Kansas is getting hot at the right time with four wins in its last five games, while BYU suffered disappointing losses to Cincinnati and Colorado recently. The Cougars get one more shot at the Buffaloes as BYU hopes to capitalize on its 16–6 start to the year.

One of the more interesting tournament cases is South Dakota State’s. The Jackrabbits are ranked 47th in the NET, but second in the Summit League to North Dakota State. The conference likely won’t get an at-large team in unless it goes to the 25–2 Bison. SDSU has an outside at-large shot, but the Jackrabbits most likely path to the Big Dance goes through the Bison and the Summit League tournament.

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