Dark Horses, Vulnerable No. 1 Seeds and Other Predictions for Women’s March Madness

Plus, National Player of the Year picks, who makes it to the Final Four and best mid-majors to watch in this week’s roundtable.

There’s a strong consensus that Sarah Strong will win NPOY honors, but our staff doesn’t agree on everything that will happen these next few weeks. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

It is almost time for the madness to officially begin. We’ve broken down the regions, looked at the chalk, found potential Cinderellas, filled out some brackets and even ranked every first-round game.

But before the First Four matchups tip off on Wednesday and the round of 64 on Friday, our writers and editors are squeezing in some final predictions in this week’s roundtable. 

National Player of the Year picks

Emma Baccellieri: Sarah Strong, UConn.

Clare Brennan: Sarah Strong, UConn.

Dan Falkenheim: Sarah Strong, UConn. 

Blake Silverman: Sarah Strong, UConn.

Final Four and national champion picks 

Baccellieri’s Final Four: UConn, UCLA, Texas, South Carolina.
Baccellieri’s 2026 champion: UConn.

Brennan’s Final Four: UConn, UCLA, Texas, South Carolina.
Brennan’s 2026 champion: UConn.

Falkenheim’s Final Four: UConn, UCLA, Texas, South Carolina.
Falkenheim’s 2026 champion: UCLA.

Silverman’s Final Four: UConn, UCLA, Texas, TCU.
Silverman’s 2026 champion: UCLA.

Dark horse in the women’s tournament

Baccellieri: Duke. This three-seed could have easily been a two-seed, and while the Blue Devils are in the toughest region in Sacramento 2, their grinding, slow defense can make them a frustrating matchup for anyone.

Brennan: Michigan. Is it fair to call a two-seed a dark horse? Perhaps not. But the Wolverines are equipped to make a Final Four run and potentially knock out No. 1 Texas in the process. Oliva Olson, Syla Swords and Mila Holloway are a potent guard trio that can punish even the best of teams. 

Falkenheim: TCU. The Horned Frogs have the offensive firepower to keep pace with anyone in the tournament.

Silverman: Oklahoma. The Sooners enter the tournament as a four-seed and have a potential collision course with South Carolina ahead in the Sweet 16. OU has had a tough time against the nation’s top teams, but it beat the Gamecocks in overtime earlier this season thanks to a standout performance from star freshman Aaliyah Chavez.

Most vulnerable No. 1 seed

Baccellieri: UCLA has established itself as more than capable of hanging with tough competition this year. (No program recorded more Quad 1 or top 10 wins.) But it will have to face quite a bit more tough competition to get back to the Final Four. Sharing a region with LSU and Duke is no treat. 

Brennan: UCLA. This has more to do with the Bruins’ draw than anything else. With UCLA in a tough Sacramento 2 region, Cori Close’s team will likely emerge battle-tested should it advance to the Final Four.  

Falkenheim: Texas. Each No. 1 seed is strong, but the Longhorns might have the toughest combination of potential opponents in the Sweet 16 (West Virginia or Kentucky) and Elite Eight (Michigan or Louisville) of the bunch.

Silverman: UConn. Bold, huh? The undefeated Huskies are the team to beat and I have a potential Elite Eight showdown with Mikayla Blakes and Vanderbilt circled. The Commodores battled for a No. 1 seed and have beaten Texas, Michigan, LSU and Oklahoma this season.

Best mid-major to watch

Baccellieri: Richmond. (Assuming the Spiders can beat Nebraska to pull out of the First Four.) Headlined by potential WNBA prospect Maggie Doogan, this offense is sneaky good and efficient. 

Brennan: Princeton. The Tigers’ defensive intensity will be tested during a tough first-round matchup against a prolific Oklahoma State team. 

Falkenheim: Fairfield. The program has been built around recruits who can shoot and a five-out offense that intentionally creates high-quality threes. That will be a lot for Notre Dame to handle.

Silverman: Western Illinois. It will take a lot for the 13-seeded Leathernecks to upset North Carolina in the first round, but senior forward Mia Nicastro is one of the best scorers and overall players in the nation.

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