Forde Minutes: Big East Bubble Burst and Small-Conference Tournament Previews

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball, where the Bruce Pearl nepo baby succession plan has Auburn trending from Final Four toward the NIT.

The Minutes gets an abbreviated run due to Winter Olympics coverage, but we’re here for the next few weeks to ramp up for Selection Sunday. No time to waste, let’s get to it …

What Happened to the Big East Takeover?

Do you remember the great revenue-sharing panic of 2024 and ’25? When people in college sports made a typically panicked assumption that the House v. NCAA settlement was going to suddenly skew things in favor of the basketball-centric Big East Conference (1)?

You hate to see a classic college sports panic amount to nothing.

The premise was this: The football schools would spend the vast majority of their $20.5 million revenue share on football players, with a secondary outlay on men’s basketball players; meanwhile, the Big East schools would devote the vast majority of their share to hoops. And—sound the alarms, something must be done!—it would be unfairrrrrrr to the basketball programs at football-first schools.

Alabama coach Nate Oats, to The Athletic in the summer of 2024: “That’s a problem. As long as it’s equitable across all the high-major schools, you’re fine. But if one’s got $22 million and one’s got $5 million, that’s a problem. We’re not going to be able to compete.”

Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork, to Boardroom in October: “Let’s say that their revenue-share number is double or triple what we have in the Big Ten because we’re feeding football as well, what does that look like from a competitive standpoint? If some of the numbers we’re hearing are accurate, it puts them at a distinct advantage.”

Duke athletic director Nina King, to Yahoo Sports last March: “In the Big East, their basketball revenue-share portion will be a lot more than what those of us can do who have Division I power football programs.”

Well, here we are in the latter stages of the first year of the Rev Share Era, and the Big East might be the worst it’s ever been. Unless there is a shocking winner in Madison Square Garden next week, this is a three-bid NCAA tournament league, which would tie for the fewest in the Big East’s 46-year history. Flagship program Connecticut (2) is the lone national title contender, with St. John’s (3) a moderately disappointing second and Villanova (4) a distant third. Nobody else is even on the bubble, unless you’re feeling overly charitable toward Seton Hall.

So what exactly happened to the great panic?

First and foremost, it was overblown by the Cassandras who are always terrified of being at a competitive disadvantage. Second, it overlooked the fact that a school has to have the money to spend, and without football revenue not many places have $20.5 million laying around even for their top priority. Third, the panic was based on the flawed premise that $20.5 million was an actual hard cap—that’s been easily doubled by some of the football factories, which means that allotting 15% of a bigger pie to men’s hoops is still plenty of money to remain competitive with the basketball schools. Fourth, the major-conference power players were never going to roll over in terms of competitive NIL. And fifth, some Big East schools have wasted their investment this season, while others haven’t ramped up their revenue sharing to a competitive level.

St. John’s rainmaker booster Mike Repole hasn’t gotten his considerable money’s worth yet from the current roster. Providence was fairly aggressive in the player market and has a 14–15 record to show for it. Creighton brought in five transfers and is having its worst season in more than a decade. Of the Big East spenders, only UConn and Villanova have gotten commensurate bang for their bucks.

Others in the league are still coming to grips with the new era. It’s not an easy philosophical adjustment at smaller private schools that have operated traditionally (i.e., frugally) for decades. Marquette, in particular, laboring through a 10–18 disaster of a season, has acknowledged a need to modernize after years of Shaka Smart succeeding with an old-school approach.

Maybe, in the coming years, the Big East will leverage a theoretical rev-share advantage into a return to dominance. But here in 2026, no such advantage exists.

The Little Dance, Part I

Ball knowers know—this is the good stuff. The two weeks before Selection Sunday are as much fun as the real thing, with more than 300 teams still alive and hoping to go as far as they can. As always, The Minutes is here for a sprint through the conference tournaments—half of them this week, and the other half next week.

Ohio Valley Conference (5)

When: March 4–7.

KenPom conference rating: 26th out of 31.

Inspiration: 2019 Murray State and Belmont. Both made the Big Dance and won games, the Bruins in the First Four and the Racers in the main draw. (Unfortunately, both schools are in the Missouri Valley now. Among current OVC members, please see 2011 Morehead State, which upset Louisville in the first round.)

Best player: Tennessee State wing Aaron Nkrumah averages 17.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and an OVC-leading 2.9 steals per game.

Best March coach: Southeast Missouri coach Brad Korn is 6–3 in the OVC tourney, including winning it in 2023 and making the final game last year.

Top seed: Tennessee State (21–9 overall, 15–5 in the league), coached by former Duke national champion Nolan Smith.

Dark horse: Third-seed SEMO, which has won 10 of its last 12.

Minutes pick: SEMO (6). The top seed hasn’t won this tournament since 2022.

Big South (7)

When: March 4–8.

KenPom conference rating: 22nd out of 31.

Inspiration: Winthrop 2007, which upset Notre Dame in the first round as a No. 11 seed.

Best player: Winthrop big man Logan Duncomb averages 18.4 points and 9.0 rebounds while shooting a league-best 59.2% from the field. But a foot injury last week may sideline him for the tourney, which would be a game changer.

Best March coach: UNC Asheville’s Mike Morrell is the only coach in the league who has won this tournament, in 2023. He’s 7–6 overall in the Big South tourney.

Top seed: High Point (27–4, 15–1), which has won the regular-season title three years in a row and is on an 11-game winning streak.

Dark horse: It’s cheating to call the No. 2 seed a dark horse, but this looks like a two-team tourney. So Winthrop (21–10, 13–3) it is. The Eagles have lost two games by a total of four points in 2026, but Duncomb’s status is unclear.

Minutes pick: High Point (8). The Panthers changed coaches since last year, but the winning remains the same.

Missouri Valley (9)

When: March 5–8.

KenPom conference rating: Ninth out of 31.

Inspiration: Indiana State 1979, which was 33–0 behind Larry Bird before losing to Michigan State in the national championship game.

Best player: Bradley guard Jaquan Johnson is second in the Valley in scoring (17.4 ppg) while also producing 3.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists and league-best 2.6 steals.

Best March coach: Second-year Southern Illinois coach Scott Nagy has won five single-bid tournaments, three at South Dakota State and two at Wright State. He’s 24–12 in league tournament play.

Top seed: Belmont (26–5, 16–4), with two of those league losses in overtime.

Dark horse: Third-seed Illinois State (20–11, 12–8), which was inconsistent but closed with a flourish, beating Northern Iowa on the road and handing Belmont just its second loss in the last 15 games.

Minutes pick: Illinois State (10), which kept a talented nucleus of players from being poached in the transfer portal to set up this season.

Atlantic Sun (11)

When: March 4–8.

KenPom conference rating: 24th out of 31.

Inspiration: Florida Gulf Coast 2013, when Dunk City soared into the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed.

Best player: Central Arkansas guard Camren Hunter is averaging 19.7 points and comes in on a heater, scoring 104 points in his last four games. He’s 31 of 32 at the foul line in that stretch.

Best March coach: Slim pickings in terms of postseason accomplishments here, but Stetson’s Donnie Jones won the ASUN tourney in 2024 and is 5–4 in the event as coach of the Hatters.

Top seed: Central Arkansas (20–11, 15–3), which benefited from Austin Peay’s upset loss to Bellarmine in the last regular-season game to grab the No. 1 seed.

Dark horse: Let’s get nuts and go with No. 9 seed Jacksonville (12–19, 7–11). The Dolphins are playing in their hometown, have won their last two games and lost their last two meetings with top seeds Central Arkansas and Austin Peay by a total of six points.

Minutes pick: Central Arkansas (12), which is seeking its first Big Dance bid.

Summit (13)

When: March 4–8.

KenPom conference rating: 21st out of 31.

Inspiration: Oral Roberts 2021. The Golden Eagles went from the No. 4 seed for the Summit tourney to the NCAA Sweet 16, taking down Ohio State and Florida and nearly beating Arkansas.

Best player: St. Thomas guard Nolan Minessale averages 19.8 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists, making 60.4% of his field goals inside the arc.

Best March coach: Omaha’s Chris Crutchfield won this tourney last year and has won at least one game in all three of his appearances.

Top seed: North Dakota State (24–7, 14–2), which is seeking its first NCAA bid since 2019.

Dark horse: Sixth-seed Denver (15–16, 8–8) has more offensive ability than most of the league, has won five of its last seven and is the only team to beat North Dakota State in Fargo, N.D., this season.

Minutes pick: St. Thomas (14). The No. 2 seed Tommies are in their first year of tournament eligibility after moving up to Division I.

Southern (15)

When: March 6–9.

KenPom conference rating: 23rd out of 31.

Inspiration: Davidson 2008, which rolled to within a shot of the Final Four behind a guard named Steph Curry. Among current membership: Chattanooga 1997 crashed the Sweet 16.

Best player: Mercer junior guard Baraka Okojie (19.5 points, 5.4 assists) has scored in double figures every game. He lives at the line (8.9 free throw attempts per game).

Best March coach: First-year Samford coach Lennie Acuff took Lipscomb to the Big Dance last year and has a 7–5 conference tourney record at that school.

Top seed: East Tennessee State (21–10, 13–5), despite losing its last two games and three of its last five.

Dark horse: Third-seed Samford (18–13, 11–7), which has won eight of its last nine and has a spree scorer in guard Jadin Booth (11 threes and 40 points in the last regular-season game).

Minutes pick: Samford (16). Go with the hot hand.

Sun Belt (17)

When: March 3–9.

KenPom conference rating: 20th out of 31.

Inspiration: Western Kentucky 2008 and 1993, both of which won two games in the Big Dance. Among current membership: South Alabama 1989, which upset Alabama behind the “Peanut Butter & Jelly” backcourt of Jeff Hodge and Junie Lewis.

Best player: South Alabama wing Chaze Harris leads the Sun Belt in scoring (18.9) while also having 4.6 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game.

Best March coach: Troy’s Scott Cross won this tournament last year and has a 6–4 record in it. He also took UT Arlington to the NCAA tourney in 2008.

Top seed: Troy (20–11, 12–6), which emerged a game ahead of a six-way tie for second. Five straight 20-win seasons for Coach Cross, whose firing at Arlington in 2018 is one of the dumbest college basketball personnel decisions of the 21st century.

Dark horse: Third-seed Coastal Carolina (19–12, 11–7). This is the most interesting and unusual tournament of the week, with the Sun Belt’s famed flock-of-geese bracket weighted heavily in favor of the top two seeds, who have to win only two games to win the bid. With a six-way tie for second, that brutally disadvantages a team like Arkansas State, which might well be good enough to win the whole thing but wound up with a No. 7 seed. The games between the top teams have been comically close, but the Chanticleers have one thing going for them—if they win their first game in the quarterfinals, they’d play No. 2 seed Marshall, which they’ve already beaten twice.

Minutes pick: Coastal Carolina (18). Get ready for the sixth different champion in the last six years.

Coastal Athletic (19)

When: March 6–10.

KenPom conference rating: 15th out of 31.

Inspiration: VCU 2011, which went to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed. Among current membership: Drexel 1996 upset No. 5 seed Memphis in the first round behind 21 points and 15 rebounds from Malik Rose.

Best player: Hofstra guard Cruz Davis leads the league in scoring at 20.7 points per game and also chips in 4.7 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game. He’s played 40 or more minutes 19 times.

Best March coach: UNC Wilmington’s Takayo Siddle won this tourney last year and is 7–4 overall, reaching the final two other times.

Top seed: Still to be determined, but UNC Wilmington just has to beat 14–16 Elon on Tuesday to lock that up.

Dark horse: Third-seed Hofstra was the most efficient offensive team in league play and has won seven of its last eight, with the lone loss by four points to UNCW.

Minutes pick: Hofstra (20). Speedy Claxton breaks through in Year 5.

Horizon (21)

When: March 2–10.

KenPom conference rating: 19th out of 31.

Inspiration: Butler’s back-to-back runs to the final game in 2010 and ’11. Among the current membership: Cleveland State 1986 made the Sweet 16, shocking Indiana in the first round.

Best player: Purdue Fort Wayne guard Corey Hadnot II is the league’s only 20-point scorer (20.6 points per game) while also contributing 4.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.

Best March coach: Oakland’s Greg Kampe has won four single-bid tournaments with the Grizzlies, most recently in 2024 with a team that went on to stun Kentucky in the first round of the Big Dance.

Top seed: Wright State (20–11, 15–5). The Raiders finished two games clear of second-place Robert Morris.

Dark horse: Oakland. Never underestimate the fourth-seeded Grizzlies, who usually win games in this tourney.

Minutes pick: Robert Morris (22). The No. 2 seed is on a seven-game winning streak, including a 13-point win at Wright State. This is an odd tournament played in five stages over eight days, so buckle up.

Northeast (23)

When: March 4–10.

KenPom conference rating: 29th out of 31.

Inspiration: Sixteen-seed Fairleigh Dickinson’s takedown of No. 1 seed Purdue in 2023 is one of the great upsets in March Madness history.

Best player: Central Connecticut forward Darin Smith Jr. leads the league in scoring at 20.4 points per game, with outbursts of 34, 38 and 40 points this season.

Best March coach: Welp. None of the coaches in this tournament have ever won a Division I league tourney.

Top seed: Long Island (21–10, 15–3). The Sharks won the league by three games.

Dark horse: Wagner (13–16, 8–10). The Seahawks lost seven straight games in midseason but by a total of 34 points. Now they’ve won their last four. They can shoot it from deep.

Minutes pick: Long Island (24). The NCAA bid is sitting there on a platter for the Sharks, but Rod Strickland has to show he can win at tournament time.

Metro Atlantic (25)

When: March 5–10.

KenPom conference rating: 25th out of 31.

Inspiration: The 2022 Elite Eight run by No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s was an all-timer, with wins over Kentucky and Purdue.

Best player: Merrimack freshman guard Kevair Kennedy fills the stat sheet with 18.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game.

Best March coach: Donny Lind of Mount St. Mary’s is lifetime undefeated in the MAAC tourney, going 3–0 last year as the No. 6 seed to take the NCAA bid.

Top seed: Merrimack (21–10, 17–3). Warriors won the league by three games and have won nine of their last 10.

Dark horse: Marist. The Red Foxes have been the best defensive team in the league.

Minutes pick: Merrimack (26). Cross one off the Never Made The Tournament List.

West Coast (27)

When: March 5–10.

KenPom conference rating: Eighth out of 31.

Inspiration: Gonzaga’s 31–1 national runner-up team from 2021 sits slightly higher than Gonzaga’s 37–2 national runner-up team of ’17.

Best player: Close contest between the Zags’ Graham Ike and Saint Mary’s forward Paulius Murauskas, but The Minutes will take Ike and his 19.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.

Best March coach: Gonzaga’s Mark Few raises his hand.

Top seed: Gonzaga wins the tiebreaker over Saint Mary’s. There is not much separating the two conference kingpins.

Dark horse: With 24 wins and the WCC’s most efficient offense, third-seed Santa Clara should be an NCAA tournament team and could be a problem for Saint Mary’s in the semifinals.

Minutes pick: Gonzaga (28). Hard to see the Zags leaving the league without cutting down the nets one more time.

Southland (29)

When: March 8–11.

KenPom conference rating: 23rd out of 31.

Inspiration: In 1985, Louisiana Tech advanced to the NCAA tournament with a two-point win in the Southland semifinals and a one-point win in the final. Then Tech beat Pittsburgh and Ohio State to make the Sweet 16 with a big man named Karl Malone. Among current membership: Stephen F. Austin’s blowout of No. 3 seed West Virginia and Bob Huggins in the first round in 2016.

Best player: Stephen F. Austin guard Keon Thompson checks in at 18.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game.

Best March coach: None of the current Southland coaches have won a D-I conference tournament.

Top seed: There are still games to play Monday, but heading into those SFA is a game ahead of McNeese State.

Dark horse: New Orleans (14–16, 12–9) has won seven of its last 10, including an upset of SFA. The Privateers lost by three to McNeese on Saturday.

Minutes pick: Stephen F. Austin (30). The Lumberjacks are 26–4, and the four losses are by a total of 13 points.

Patriot (31)

When: March 3–11.

KenPom conference rating: 27th out of 31.

Inspiration: Lehigh 2012 shocked Duke as a No. 2 seed behind guard CJ McCollum, a moment that will be difficult for any Patriot League champion to outdo.

Best player: Sub-6 foot Navy guard Austin Benigni averages 18.1 points, 4.4 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game for the Midshipmen.

Best March coach: Colgate’s Matt Langel won the league tourney five times from 2019 to ’24 and has won at least one game every year since ’17.

Top seed: Navy (25–6, 17–1). The Midshipmen dominated the league, winning it by six games.

Dark horse: Boston U. The Terriers come in having won seven of their last eight games.

Minutes pick: Navy (32). It would be a shock if the Midshipmen don’t earn their first NCAA bid since 1998.

Big Sky (33)

When: March 7–11.

KenPom conference rating: 16th out of 31.

Inspiration: Weber State 1999, led by Harold “The Show” Arceneaux, upset No. 3 seed North Carolina in the first round.

Best player: Montana guard Money Williams lives up to his name, averaging 19.7 points, 5.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game.

Best March coach: Montana’s Travis DeCuire has won the Big Sky tourney three times, most recently last year.

Top seed: There is still a game to go Monday, but Portland State (18–10, 12–5) locks down the top seed with a win over Weber State.

Dark horse: Northern Colorado (19–11, 9–8) has won eight of its last nine behind high-scoring guard Quinn Denker.

Minutes pick: Northern Colorado (34). When in doubt in a muddled league, go with the hot team.

America East (35)

When: March 7–14.

KenPom conference rating: 30th out of 31.

Inspiration: Vermont 2005, which shot down No. 4 seed Syracuse with a bomb from T.J. Sorrentine in the first round.

Best player: Vermont forward Gus Yalden checks in at 16.7 points and 6.0 rebounds per game, with inside-outside scoring versatility.

Best March coach: Vermont’s John Becker has won this tournament six times, including three straight from 2022 to ’24.

Top seed: There is a game left to play Tuesday, but UMBC (20–8, 13–2) has locked down the top spot for the tourney.

Dark horse: Slim pickings, but Maine (8–22) won two of its last three, all on the road.

Minutes pick: UMBC (36). The Retrievers are on an eight-game winning streak, powered by what has been the most efficient offense and defense in league play.

Stat of the Week

Division II power Nova Southeastern (37), in Fort Lauderdale, will try to win its 100th straight home game Tuesday night. It’s believed to be the second-longest home winning streak in men’s college basketball history, trailing only Kentucky’s 129 straight from 1943 to ’55.

The Sharks (24–1), who are defending D-II national champions and have won two of the last three, will play Rollins in the quarterfinals of the Sunshine State Conference tournament for win No. 100. That’s also who Nova Southeastern defeated for its 99th straight home win last week, 75–69.

No player on the current Sharks roster has lost a game in Rick Case Arena. The last loss there occurred on Feb. 15, 2020, about one month before the COVID-19 pandemic struck down the rest of that season.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week

Grant McCasland (38), Texas Tech

The Red Raiders lost JT Toppin, their leader in points, rebounds, steals and blocks, for the season in late February but McCasland is keeping the ship afloat. His team has won three straight without Toppin, capped by a powerful road victory over Iowa State. Tech has lit it up from deep since Toppin was lost, hitting 37-of-82 three-point shots (45%). Guard Donovan Atwell, a UNC Greensboro transfer, made 16 of those threes and averaged 18.7 points per game.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work

Eric Musselman (39), USC

The Trojans have plummeted to the wrong side of the bubble by losing their last five games, and on Sunday announced that leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara is no longer on the team. Musselman knew what he was getting into when he brought aboard Baker-Mazara, an erratic 26-year-old on his fifth college stop. Muss has one week of the regular season and the Big Ten tournament left to try to salvage an NCAA bid.

Buzzer Beater

When hungry and thirsty in Dobbiaco, Italy, you must visit Gasthaus Weber (40). No, it’s not exactly in the college basketball neighborhood, but it’s the most recent place The Minutes has been—and the restaurant is outstanding. Very Germanic, as parts of Northern Italy are. Try the barley soup, the tagliatelle with venison and the house red wine, and thank The Minutes later.

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