March Madness Expert Predictions for the 2026 Men’s National Championship

Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde, Kevin Sweeney and Bryan Fischer make their picks for Monday’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament national championship game in Indianapolis.

Pat Forde

Michigan 77, UConn 71

The Wolverines’ string of cruise-control victories will end, as will their tourney-record streak of scoring 90 points—but they’re not losing. The Huskies won’t make it easy, moving the ball at a pace that will stress Michigan’s big bodies defensively.

Ultimately, the best team will prevail. Dusty May’s team is too long, too strong and too locked in to be deterred. The Big Ten’s national title drought ends in Big Ten territory, the same stadium where the league contests its football championship game.

Kevin Sweeney

Michigan 73, UConn 63

UConn is such a difficult out in this tournament with the style of offense that it plays and how complicated it is to prepare for the Huskies on a short turnaround. But even with a potential tactical edge, this game feels like a story of Jimmys and Joes more than X’s and O’s. And at the end of the day, it’s hard not to back Michigan’s personnel over UConn’s. The Wolverines have NBA players all over the lineup, with all three big men as potential first-rounders. But equally important to Michigan’s success in the Big Dance has been its guard play: Elliot Cadeau has been fantastic at the point guard position, and wings Roddy Gayle Jr. and Trey McKenney have come off the bench and made huge impacts in this tournament as shooters and scorers. Michigan has shot well over 40% from distance in five games this tournament. Do that Monday and it’s hard to envision UConn winning.

Plus, at the end of the day, basketball is a simple enough game. If you can control the rim, you usually win the game. No team controls the paint better than the Wolverines thanks to Aday Mara’s two-way impact. If you’re picking UConn to win, you’re doing so knowing the Wolverines will likely end up taking better shots than the Huskies will. That’s a scary recipe.

Michigan’s Morez Johnson Jr. shoots against Arizona in the Final Four. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Bryan Fischer

UConn 71, Michigan 69

Despite thinking the Wolverines were winning it all in February, I’ve seemingly been picking against Michigan as they’ve inversely gone on one of the most dominant tournament runs we’ve ever seen going into Monday night. Why stop now, right? Maybe it’s the Dan Hurley voodoo or Yaxel Lendeborg not looking like he’s quite 80% (much less at full strength), but I just think the Huskies muddle this one up and make it a rock fight that goes right to the end. I honestly would be least surprised by a Michigan blowout, but you have to wonder if those instincts as to what to do if they get into a close game late have faded away recently. UConn is not the powerhouse we saw in 2023 or ’24, but this is a group that maximizes their talent, keeps fighting and doesn’t panic no matter what is showing on the scoreboard. Plus, we got a Final Four that didn’t really feature a great game on either end so perhaps we’re just due for a classic that comes down to the wire with a pair of offenses that can be overly difficult to prepare for on short notice.

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