March Madness: Five Bold Predictions for Men’s NCAA Tournament Round of 64

The most exciting time of the year is here for men’s college basketball. The round of 64 is set to tip-off on Thursday, with wall-to-wall basketball beginning our path to crowning a new national champion.

As college basketball fans across the country ready themselves for high-intensity hoops action on Thursday and Friday, here are Sports Illustrated’s bold predictions for the first round of the men’s NCAA tournament.

No. 13 Troy will upset No. 4 Nebraska for the biggest upset of the first round

Thomas Dowd, Troy Trojans — Thomas Dowd will certainly look to make a name for himself on the national stage this March. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

When this matchup was unveiled on Selection Sunday, the first thing that came to everybody’s mind was the fact that Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game. The historically great football program has not enjoyed the same success over the years on the hardwood, so its NCAA tournament record was always going to be a talking point, even after a phenomenal regular season under coach Fred Hoiberg.

This year’s Nebraska team could certainly be the one to snap the tournament dry spell, but Troy provides an interesting matchup for the Huskers. As good as Nebraska is defensively (ranking seventh nationally in defensive efficiency), the Cornhuskers are a mediocre offensive team that’s even worse on the offensive glass. Nebraska enters the contest ranked No. 132 nationally in offense since the beginning of February, and currently sits 314th out of 361 Division I programs in offensive rebounding, providing very little room for error on cold shooting nights.

Troy is a veteran team with plenty of size in the frontcourt, led by star forward Thomas Dowd (14.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg), that can pose Nebraska problems. And while the Trojans shoot under 34% from three this season as a team, they’re No. 38 nationally in three-point attempts per contest, hoisting up nearly 28 threes per game. If Troy gets hot from beyond-the-arc, and Nebraska hits a wall on offense, this could be a very tight game late that will have the Huskers rotation thinking about the NCAA tournament drought.

Give me the Trojans to pull off one of the biggest upsets of March.

And that won’t be the only No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchup that will be close

Aden Holloway, Alabama Crimson Tide — Alabama's second-leading scorer Aden Holloway is away from the team after an arrest and is not expected to play in the first round. | ANDREW NELLES / THE TENNESSEAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Fourth-seeded Alabama has had better weeks leading up to an NCAA tournament game. The Crimson Tide’s second-leading scorer Aden Holloway was arrested on a felony marijuana charge, and is currently away from campus and not expected to play in the first-round game against No. 13 Hofstra. Holloway’s status is murky at best, and that’s a problem for a Crimson Tide offense that leads the nation in scoring with him in the lineup. The loss of Holloway is a significant one — the junior guard averaged 16.8 points per game on a 48.1% clip from the floor overall and a 43.8% mark from three. The Crimson Tide offense is 10 points per game per 100 possessions worse without Holloway in the lineup, which will be something to monitor as the offense works to find efficiency without him on the floor.

The Crimson Tide should be O.K. against the Pride, but an extended absence of Holloway would certainly limit the team’s tournament ceiling. That said, Hofstra can flat out shoot it. The Pride shoot nearly 26 threes per game, and convert on nearly 37% of their shots from beyond-the-arc as a team. Hofstra’s backcourt of Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead is box office good on the offensive end, with both players converting nearly 40% of their shots from deep while averaging 20.2 and 15.9 points per game, respectively.

For the first time since 2023, there will not be a No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset in the first round

John Groce, Akron Zips — Akron coach John Groce has the Zips playing at an extremely high level at the right time of year. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

This one could come back to bite me, but it’s not called a bold prediction for nothing.

The No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset is always a popular one, with at least one lower seed winning the matchup in most NCAA tournaments.

I don’t think it’ll happen this year.

No. 5 Vanderbilt is grossly underseeded, and should handle its business against a 12-seed in McNeese State that will try to wreak havoc with its pressure-packed defense. Very few teams are playing better than the Commodores at the moment, who made it to the SEC tournament title game.

Speaking of underseeded five-seeds, how about Big East tournament champion St. John’s finding itself on the 5-line. Perhaps it was the non-conference schedule, with the Red Storm’s best victory coming against Baylor, who didn’t make the field. But very few teams are hotter than the Johnnies, who have won 19 of their last 20 entering the tournament. Northern Iowa has its work cut out for it.

No. 12 seed High Point is playing No. 5 seed Wisconsin, a team that has also been white-hot. The Badgers backcourt is among the best in college basketball with Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, who should be able to handle a Panthers defense that thrives off of turnovers. Wisconsin star big Nolan Winter is also expected to return to the lineup after missing the Big Ten tournament.

Advantage Badgers.

If there’s one No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup that has me nervous for this prediction, it’s No. 12 Akron facing off against No. 5 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders enter the tournament without All-American forward JT Toppin, who tore his ACL in February. Grant McCasland’s bunch has managed O.K. without him, but he’s the type of player that changes a game and helps gain separation against a tough opponent. Akron is extremely well-coached under John Groce, and has a trio of guards who can all absolutely rip it from three. Tavari Johnson, Bowen Hardman and Shammah Scott all shoot better than 37% from deep.

The Zips are vulnerable in the frontcourt, and Texas Tech does not have its best big man available. But guard Christian Anderson is expected to return to the lineup, which should provide much-needed stability for the Red Raiders in a close win.

While there won’t be a No. 5 vs. No 12 upset, at least two 11-seeds will advance

Josh Omojafo, South Florida Bulls — South Florida guard Josh Omojafo will look to impact the game offensively in a potential upset bid of No. 6 Louisville. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

No. 6 Louisville is in the danger zone against AAC champion No. 11 South Florida. The Cardinals will be without star freshman (and potential lottery pick) Mikel Brown Jr as he continues to battle a sore back. The Cardinals will miss the offensive upside that he brings to the lineup.

South Florida has a very good starting five led by Joseph Pinion and Wes Enis. Enis is the team’s leading scorer averaging 16.8 points per game on 40.0% shooting, while Pinion is averaging 14.2 points per contest on a 37.9% mark from deep. Izaiyah Nelson is a double-double waiting to happen in the frontcourt, and coach Bryan Hodgson always seems to get the most out of his teams, with this year’s Bulls squad being no different. This will be a popular upset given South Florida’s steadiness and Louisville’s penchant to go cold offensively.

Keep an eye on No. 11 VCU as well. The Rams won the A-10 thanks to a balanced offensive attack and a deep nine-man rotation that doesn’t relent. North Carolina is down its best player in Caleb Wilson, and has been very inconsistent without him game-to-game. VCU’s defense is fine, but not outstanding, so North Carolina will have some opportunities. But whether the Tar Heels actually take advantage of what the Rams defense gives them remains to be seen.

I like the Rams to advance.

No. 10 Santa Clara will knock off No. 7 Kentucky and turn up the heat on Mark Pope in Lexington

Allen Graves, Santa Clara Broncos — Broncos forward Allen Graves has been a matchup nightmare for Santa Clara. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Santa Clara was rewarded for a great season with a No. 10 seed and a manageable matchup against a Kentucky squad that has struggled with consistency and does not have the full rotation available that they were anticipating at the beginning of the season. What looked like a deep team on paper fell behind the 8-ball early with injuries to guard Jaland Lowe and forward Jayden Quaintance. Kam Williams returned for the SEC tournament in a limited fashion after fracturing his foot in January, but looked like a shell of his former self.

This version of Kentucky is beatable, and the Broncos have the roster to do it. Santa Clara has a great backcourt led by Christian Hammond and Sash Gavalyugov, and has a freshman forward in Allen Graves who has proven to be a matchup nightmare. Santa Clara will have the coaching advantage in this contest as well, with Herb Sendek continuing his winning ways with the Broncos. He’s beaten Mark Pope in three out of their four career meetings, and I expect that trend to continue as Santa Clara slows down Otega Oweh and the Wildcats and turns up the heat on Pope heading into Year Three.

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