March Madness: Five Bold Predictions for Men’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

We’ve got some educated guesses for how Thursday and Friday will play out.

Ben McCollum has made magic during this NCAA tournament—and he might not be done yet. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

If men’s college basketball fans can take a deep breath and stomach the complete absence of mid-majors for a second consecutive year, they will find much to like about the 2026 edition of the Sweet 16.

The box-office East Regonal features four of the game’s finest coaches. The South includes a new rivalry between Iowa and Nebraska as well as Houston playing on its home floor. The West has a clash of superb teams in Arkansas and Arizona, while the Midwest includes the tantalizing possibility of an Iowa State-Michigan showdown.

With this in mind, here are five bold predictions to prime you for Thursday and Friday’s proceedings. Feel free to latch on to these if your bracket is busted.

Iowa slips past Nebraska to keep the dance going

Thursday’s meeting between the two rivals will be their third in the past six weeks; neither of the first two were blowouts. The Hawkeyes upended the Cornhuskers 57–52 at home on Feb. 17, and Nebraska won in overtime in Lincoln, Neb., on March 8. Let’s assume, then, that these teams are evenly matched—not remotely unreasonable given they are next to each other in the Big Ten KenPom pecking order (the Cornhuskers are fifth, Iowa sixth). The Hawkeyes are coming off their best win of the season over Florida, will have the best player on the floor in guard Bennett Stirtz, and are probably being underrated (they’re 292nd in KenPom’s luck component while Nebraska is 83rd). Riding a coach with 36 wins in national tournament games, Iowa will play in its first Elite Eight since 1987.

The defense of St. John’s stifles Duke, who barely wins the lowest-scoring game of the Sweet 16

Measured by defensive rating, the Blue Devils played two teams better at defending than the Red Storm this season: the Gators on Dec. 2 and the Wolverines on Feb. 21. Both of those teams forced Duke into slugfests unbecoming of a team that has averaged 81.9 points per game this season—the Blue Devils beat Florida 67–66 and Michigan 68–63. Duke can, should and in all probability will knock out St. John’s to reach the Elite Eight. Expect the Red Storm—and particularly forward Zuby Ejiofor, who appears set to guard Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer—to make Duke work for it.

Michigan demolishes Alabama

The Crimson Tide will touch down in Chicago on Friday with this combination of statistical placements: first in scoring offense, 351st in scoring defense, seventh in offensive rating, 268th in defensive rating. In a word, as impressive as coach Nate Oats’s squad looked against Texas Tech in the second round: yikes. The Wolverines are also one of the nation’s top scoring teams—but they supplement their ferocious attack with an exacting defense led by center Aday Mara, the nation’s leader in box plus-minus. Much has been made of physical major-conference teams eating spread-the-ball-around mid-majors alive this March. A variation on that theme between Michigan and Alabama looks likely.

Arkansas upsets Arizona in an overtime classic—and the best game of the Sweet 16

Maybe you tuned out the Razorbacks’ first-round victory over Hawaii. Maybe you missed Arkansas’s second-round win over High Point, too. You won’t be able to ignore the Razorbacks and guard Darius Acuff Jr. after this, which will be the Hawkeyes-Gators of the Sweet 16—an upset that should be impossible, made real by one player’s sheer will. For Iowa, it was forward Alvaro Folgueiras off the bench, and for Arkansas it will be Acuff on the heels of 36 points against the upstart Panthers. Nothing about the Wildcats suggests they are vulnerable to this type of upset, and on paper the matchup looks quite a bit like the Crimson Tide’s against the Wolverines. Alabama doesn’t have Acuff, however—the Ryan Gosling of coach John Calipari’s Hail Mary.

Someone coaches his last game at his current school—and not a member of the old guard

The North Carolina job is open. The Kansas job could open soon, too. Even in an age relatively unkind to blue bloods, both of those positions carry clout—enough clout to end the tenure of a coach in this year’s Sweet 16. Who will it be? SI’s Kevin Sweeney listed Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd, Michigan’s Dusty May, Oats and Iowa State’s T.J. Otzelberger as potential candidates to take over in Chapel Hill, N.C. An opening at the helm of the Jayhawks could dredge up a similar list. If your team is playing Thursday or Friday, then, hold your coach close.

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