March Madness: Four Bold Predictions for Men’s NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

Three rounds of the tournament down. Three more to go.

The NCAA men’s tournament’s Elite Eight gets underway on Saturday. By the end of the weekend, we’ll have our Final Four heading into the final weekend of college basketball for the season.

Here are four bold predictions for what should be a raucous Elite Eight.

Arizona will win the battle of pace and run away from Purdue

There are few teams remaining in the NCAA tournament that are built to run with Arizona’s fast-paced offensive attack. Purdue, despite its outstanding offensive efficiency, would prefer to operate out of the half court.

The entire story of this game will be dictated by who wins the battle of pace. If Purdue is able to slow things down and make this a half-court game, the Boilermakers are structured with their three-point shooting and size inside to win the basketball game. Purdue’s Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn can hang with Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas and Koa Peat on the glass, and the Boilers can get hot from three with Fletcher Loyer, C.J. Cox and Braden Smith all capable of knocking down multiple outside looks per game. Arizona ranks 360th in the country in three-point attempts per game, and would prefer not to get into a jump shooting contest with a Boilers team that’s built for it.

Purdue guard Fletcher Loyer can get hot from three-point range. | Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I’m going to bet on the Wildcats winning the battle of pace. Arizona’s defense can flat out play, and I think on-ball defense on the perimeter will make it another tough shooting night for Purdue, which squeaked past Texas despite not shooting the ball well from three. Arizona’s guards, let by Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley, will be too much athletically for Purdue’s backcourt to deal with. The Boilermakers have struggled staying in front of athletic guards who get downhill all season long, and Arizona has that in spades offensively.

This contest will be competitive, but the athleticism of the Wildcats will help the program pull away late and reach its first Final Four since 2001.

Iowa’s magical run will continue, as the Hawkeyes will become the 2026 tournament’s Cinderella with upset of Illinois

With college athletics now fully in the NIL and revenue-sharing era, it is becoming harder and harder for mid-majors to make deep runs in the NCAA tournament.

Why? Because the best mid-major players are getting plucked out of the transfer portal every offseason and becoming key members of rosters for high-major programs.

Cinderella is dead—at least it seems that way—in terms of deep tournament runs for mid-majors. It’s pretty wild to consider, especially when we are just three seasons removed from a Final Four game that featured San Diego State and Florida Atlantic.

But if there was ever to be a Cinderella in this year’s tournament, perhaps it’s No. 9 Iowa, which is playing a Big Ten rival in No. 3 Illinois in Saturday’s Elite Eight. The Hawkeyes, under first-year coach Ben McCollum, have been one of the tournament’s best stories. McCollum took the Iowa job after leading Drake to the NCAA tournament a year ago, and brought over six players from the Bulldogs roster, led by star point guard Bennett Stirtz.

For all intents and purposes, this is black-and-gold Drake, and the program continues to advance through the tournament. I like Iowa to avenge its six-point loss to the Illini in January and pull off the upset on Saturday to continue a very unlikely run to the Final Four for the first time since 1980. In a year where the bluebloods were thought to remain supreme deep into the tournament, the Hawkeyes will advance and throw a wrench into that line of thinking.

Duke will win battle of the backcourts to narrowly escape battle with UConn to punch ticket to second straight Final Four

Duke and UConn each won by the skin of their teeth in Friday night’s East Regional semifinal matchups against St. John’s and Michigan State, respectively. The victories by the Blue Devils and Huskies set up a must-watch Elite Eight tilt on Sunday between two of the most storied programs in the history of college basketball.

While the frontcourt battle between Duke’s Cameron Boozer and UConn’s Tarris Reed Jr. will certainly garner plenty of headlines heading into the matchup, it will be the backcourts that decide the game. With Caleb Foster returning in emphatic fashion to the Sweet 16 with 11 pivotal second-half points for the Blue Devils against the Red Storm, I give the edge to Duke’s backcourt in the tilt with the Huskies. Foster may not be at full health, but he looks healthy enough on his semi-healed fractured foot to team up with Cayden Boozer and give the Blue Devils the edge in a matchup with Huskies guards Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr.

I think the reemergence of Foster becomes the story of the second weekend, as he contributes in a meaningful way once again to help Duke advance to its second straight Final Four under Jon Scheyer.

Michigan will roll over Tennessee to advance to the Final Four

No. 6 Tennessee put together a very impressive Sweet 16 performance over No. 2 Iowa State, dominating the glass to advance to the Elite Eight.

While the Volunteers looked the part of a tournament spoiler in taking down one of the favorites in the Midwest region, their run will end against No. 1 Michigan on Sunday. The Wolverines are too strong in the frontcourt with Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara and should hold serve on the glass. Tennessee has the best player in either backcourt with Ja’Kobi Gillespie, but Michigan’s Elliot Cadeau will make enough plays of his own to negate the damage.

In the end, the Wolverines are too strong in the frontcourt, and too deep when going to their bench with Trey McKenney and Roddy Gayle Jr. I like the Wolverines to roll in the Elite Eight and deny Tennessee’s Rick Barnes a second career trip to the Final Four.

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