March Madness: Three Bold Predictions for Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four

It all comes down to Friday and Sunday in Phoenix.

Expect big things from Azzi Fudd when UConn plays South Carolina Friday. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

And then there were four—a very familiar four.

In the history of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament, there had been just one repeat women’s Final Four—1996, when Georgia, Stanford, Tennessee and UConn all made it back after qualifying in ‘95 (The Huskies won the former, the Volunteers the latter). In 2026, however, here South Carolina, Texas, UCLA and UConn all are again. All are No. 1 seeds, which was not true a year ago. And all have a non-zero chance of taking home the sport’s biggest prize.

Here are three bold predictions for what could go down in Phoenix Friday as the Gamecocks, Longhorns, Bruins and Huskies eye everlasting glory.

South Carolina gives UConn a better game than Texas does UCLA

Dawn Staley’s South Carolina squad is a 6.5-point underdog against UConn in the Final Four. | Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

To give away the game in the first prediction, both favorites will prevail—but not in the fashion you’d think. The Gamecocks will give the Huskies a spirited fight, while the Bruins will score a handy double-digit win on their way to the national championship game. As stupefyingly dominant as UConn has been for the entirety of this season, it has yet to see an opponent quite like coach Dawn Staley’s South Carolina team. The best team the Huskies have played this season was Michigan on Nov. 21; UConn won by only three. Louisville, too, played the Huskies within 13 on Nov. 4—although, if you’re looking for a counterpoint, the Cardinals played the Gamecocks within two a month later.

The bottom line is that while UConn has South Carolina beaten in both offensive and defensive rating, the gap between the teams is not overwhelming. Do not expect a repeat of the Huskies’ easy win in the 2025 title game. Expect a knife fight where UConn flirts with its smallest margin of victory of the season.

Kiki Rice bounces back in a huge way—and leads UCLA in scoring

UCLA’s Kiki Rice had her best outing of the NCAA tournament in the Sweet 16 against Minnesota, when she dropped 21 points in a dominant 80–56 win. | Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

The Bruins’ All-American guard has flown a bit under the radar this tournament. First, she struggled from the field (4-for-11) against California Baptist in the first round, though she excelled at getting to the line and finished with 18 points. Then, she was a 2-for-6 non-factor against Oklahoma State in the second round. She rebounded with 21 points against Minnesota in the Sweet 16 before slumping once again against Duke in the Elite Eight—where she shot 2-for-10 from the field while pulling down eight rebounds.

The point: in March Madness, Rice is tracking below her season average of 15 points per game on 5-for-10 shooting. That can’t continue against the Longhorns, and won’t. Rice’s better offense will overpower Texas’s good defense, even with one of the Longhorns’ better defenders also eyeing a two-way bounce-back game (guard Jordan Lee, 2-for-17 in the Elite Eight). The Longhorns’ star, forward Madison Booker, has a series of fascinating decisions ahead of her—help contain Rice, or devote her full attention to UCLA’s superstar center Lauren Betts?

Azzi Fudd’s performance skews closer to Syracuse than Notre Dame—which is good news for the Huskies

UConn star Azzi Fudd has had a quiet NCAA tournament outside of a 34-point outburst vs. Syracuse. She was held to 13 points in the Elite Eight against Notre Dame. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Speaking of stars working on up-and-down tournament runs, here were UConn guard Azzi Fudd’s numbers against the Orange in the second round: 13-for-18 from the field, 8-for-11 from three, 34 points. Here were her numbers against the Fighting Irish: 5-for-12 from the field, 0-for-1 from three, 13 points. Now, get this: Syracuse’s defense is actually better than Notre Dame’s by defensive rating (It’s close—the Orange are 116th at 87.6, while the Fighting Irish are 129th at 88.1).

The NCAA tournament is a puny sample size, but Fudd appears to have hit a bit of a down shooting stretch. It would be concerning for UConn if this was due to the Huskies playing better competition alone, but that does not seem to be the case. Why? Fudd has consistently raised her game this season against both good and decent teams—31 points and seven threes against the Wolverines, 27 points and five threes against Iowa, 27 points and five threes against Tennessee, 20 points against Louisville. Take the tournament as an aberration—when UConn needs a dagger against the Gamecocks Friday, Fudd will deliver it.

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