March Madness: Why Siena’s No-Subs Gamble Against Duke Was the Right Call

Duke head coach Jon Scheyer was quick to comment after the Blue Devils’ shockingly close call against Siena that Saints head coach Gerry McNamara had outcoached him Thursday.

But among McNamara’s most shrewd (and controversial) decisions as he attempted to coach No. 16 seed Siena to a stunning upset was essentially completely eschewing his bench. For the first 39 minutes and 50 seconds of the Saints’ upset bid, McNamara played only his five starters. Had McNamara not subbed in freshman guard Christian Jones to help foul in the final seconds, Siena would have been the first team since DePaul in the 1979 Final Four to not go to its bench once.

It’s a move that will invite plenty of scrutiny. That comes with the territory of playing on the big stage in March and capturing the nation’s attention for two hours. Siena’s players clearly wore down in the closing minutes, struggling to keep Duke off the offensive glass and not manufacturing much offense down the stretch.

McNamara defended the move postgame, saying he felt like in a matchup with an All-American like Cameron Boozer, he couldn’t afford to take either starting frontcourt player (Francis Folefac and Riley Mulvey) off the floor, even for a moment.

“The way we looked, the way it felt to me, I went with a group that I thought could give us the best chance,” McNamara said.

Those unacquainted with the Saints’ season might still think it was a drastic, even brash decision from a young head coach. McNamara’s daring call was unquestionably the right one.

Siena was down to seven scholarship players available to play by Thursday and was especially depleted in the frontcourt. Its starting center entering the season, Tasman Goodrick, has been out since December with a knee injury. Another key frontcourt player, Antonio Chandler, was ruled ineligible by the NCAA just prior to the MAAC tournament after uncovering an issue with his eligibility clock. Deep down the bench, 6' 8" Tajae Jones hasn’t played since November and is expected to redshirt. The Saints’ two starting frontcourt players, Folefac and Mulvey, had played monster minute loads in the MAAC tournament because of it, including each putting in a marathon 40 minutes in the MAAC title game against Merrimack. This wasn’t foreign to them, and McNamara had proof of concept that it could work.

The two remaining available reserves were a pair of freshmen: 5' 11" Christian Jones and 6' 6" Isaiah Henderson, both perimeter players. Neither has lit it up in their limited action: Jones shot 32% from the field on the season, Henderson just 35%.

The players those two would likely have subbed in for are the Saints’ backcourt, which has tacked on remarkable mileage all season. Gavin Doty, Siena’s leading scorer, played 39-plus minutes 13 times this season before Thursday. Point guard Justice Shoats did it 14 times. And while wing Brendan Coyle usually gets at least one quick rest, he played 36 or more minutes 10 times this season.

Siena snatched momentum in the game early and spent the rest of the game desperate to hold onto it. If foul trouble wasn’t forcing their hand, and fortunately for the Saints it didn’t, why risk giving it up with one of your best players on the bench? McNamara’s plan to clog the paint and battle Boozer around the rim with Mulvey and Folefac was working. Going away from that strategy, even if just for 45 seconds or a minute, might have swung the game back in Duke’s favor.

Among the most common refrains in these long shot upset bids is to break the game up into four-minute intervals. McNamara was right to keep his foot on the gas and try to maintain the lead for as long as possible. The later in the game it gets, the less being tired matters: Adrenaline kicks in, the pressure on Duke mounts. McNamara’s plan gave Siena the best chance of having a real shot to win with five minutes to play. That makes it clearly the right move, even if the Blue Devils overpowered the Saints in the closing minutes.

Plus, the NCAA tournament has so many built-in stoppages for rest: five guaranteed media timeouts in each half, plus an elongated halftime. And that’s not even mentioning all the additional timeouts and stoppages throughout a game. Players will be worn down late in games regardless of a 90-second or two-minute reprieve in the first half, and Siena might not have gotten to those final five minutes had they rolled the dice and went to the bench.

Desperate times call for desperate measures when you’re a No. 16 seed facing the overall No. 1 seed. McNamara’s no-sub strategy was unorthodox, but gave Siena its best chance for a miracle win. Just because the magic wore off doesn’t make it the wrong call.

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