Men's Basketball State of the Bubble: Stock Down on Several ACC Teams Heading into Conference Title Week

Selection Sunday is a week away and conference tournaments have already begun for mid-major leagues across college basketball.

After a busy Saturday that saw several bubble teams conclude their regular seasons, here is an updated state of the men's NCAA tournament bubble heading into conference championship week.

Stock Up

Ohio State Buckeyes

The Buckeyes will be hearing their name on Selection Sunday thanks to a strong close to the regular season when the team’s tournament résumé was very much up in the air. Ohio State has won three straight entering the Big Ten tournament after a 91–78 victory over fellow bubble foe Indiana on Saturday. At 20–11 and 12–8 in Big Ten play, the Buckeyes are in good shape regardless of the Big Ten tournament result.

Oklahoma Sooners

It took overtime after fouling a three-point shooter up 3 at the end of regulation on the road at Texas on Saturday night, but the Sooners snagged a massive Q1 victory to continue the late-season charge for a tournament bid. Oklahoma has now won six of its last eight games, and now has five Quad 1 wins and four Quad 2 wins. There are worse bubble résumés than this one. A handful of SEC tournament wins could have Porter Moser and the Sooners unexpectedly dancing.

San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State narrowly escaped visiting UNLV on Friday to win a Q3 matchup that otherwise would have ended the program’s chances at an at-large bid. The road to an at-large bid remains narrow given the lack of Quad 1 victories, so it still may take a Mountain West Tournament title for San Diego State to make the field.

Stanford Cardinal

Stanford likely needs to win the ACC title to earn a bid into the NCAA tournament, but a fifth Quad 1 victory on Saturday at NC State certainly helps the program’s slim chance of making the field as an at-large selection. The Cardinal need at least a handful of wins to garner serious consideration for an at-large bid, but the most likely path for a tournament berth would be an unlikely run to an ACC title.

Texas A&M Aggies

It took three overtimes, but the Aggies avoided an untimely loss at LSU on Saturday, surviving for a 94–91 victory. It was a Quad 1 win for A&M, its sixth of the year, which should clinch an at-large bid regardless of how the SEC tournament goes for the program next week. The Aggies have closed strong with two straight wins and four in their last six to close out regular season league play.

UCLA Bruins

The Bruins will be safely in the tournament after a Saturday night road rout of USC that marks the program’s fifth Quad 1 victory. UCLA now holds an 11–10 record in the two quads, and does not have a loss in Quads 3 or 4. This is a tournament team after finishing the season strong with four wins in its final five games.

VCU Rams

The Rams closed their regular season on Friday night with a 68–62 Quad 1 road win at Dayton, which should at least cement a spot in the First Four as one of the last teams into the field. Avoiding an early exit in the Atlantic-10 tournament will be crucial, but as long as the Rams show well next week, they should be hearing their name called on Selection Sunday.

West Virginia Mountaineers

The Mountaineers kept their remote hopes of an at-large bid alive by dispatching UCF by 15 at home on Saturday, while picking up a Quad 2 win in the process. West Virginia is just 8–12 in the top two quads, and has a five-point home loss to Utah on the résumé in Quad 3. It’ll take a deep run in the Big 12 tournament (perhaps even a championship) to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament.

Stock Down

Auburn Tigers

The metrics have loved Auburn all season thanks to the sheer number of Quad 1 games the Tigers have played. Saturday night’s game at No. 16 Alabama was Auburn’s 16th Q1 contest, a game which the Tigers were noncompetitive in a 96–84 loss to the Crimson Tide.

Auburn has just four Q1 wins and four Q2 wins, and has a Q3 loss to its name as well. At 16–15 on the season, this does not look like an NCAA tournament team. An important SEC tournament awaits the Tigers, who will need to pick up a few wins for any remaining chance of an at-large selection.

Cal Golden Bears

Cal had a very winnable Q1 game at Wake Forest on Saturday that would have garnered the Golden Bears some serious late-season consideration as a fringe at-large team. Instead, the program fell by seven on Saturday and will now need at least three wins in the ACC tournament and some help to make the NCAA tournament field.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati entered Saturday’s season finale at TCU winners of two straight and six of seven after digging a significant hole for itself early in conference play. Unfortunately for the Bearcats, they ran into a buzzsaw on Saturday, losing to TCU 73–63. The Horned Frogs have won five straight and eight of their last nine contests. Short of winning the Big 12 tournament title, the Bearcats appear to be NIT bound.

Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana has lost four out of its last five after a 91–78 loss at Ohio State on Saturday that was not all that close. It’s been a rough close to the regular season against a tough schedule for the Hoosiers, but barring a deep run in the Big Ten tournament, the program is likely heading to the NIT.

Missouri Tigers

Mizzou lost its second straight game on Saturday, and third in the last five games with a four-point overtime loss at home to No. 20 Arkansas. A win would have removed the Tigers from the bubble, but a lost has kept them there. The good news for Missouri is that several bubble chasers behind them also fell on Saturday, so the Tigers are still likely in the field (so long as they avoid an early exit and subsequent questions in the SEC tournament).

New Mexico Lobos

New Mexico allowed a golden Quad 1 opportunity at Utah State slip away on Saturday with a 94–90 defeat at the hands of the Aggies. While the Aggies are in better shape than fellow Mountain West rival San Diego State to earn a bid, it will likely take multiple wins in the conference tournament, and perhaps even a league title.

Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall’s last chance to remain on the bubble fell by the wayside in a 72–65 home loss to No. 18 St. John’s on Saturday. A win there would have given the Pirates a second Quad 1 victory. With a 1–5 record in Quad 1 and three Quad 3 losses on the résumé, Seton Hall is all but eliminated from at-large consideration. It will take a miraculous Big East tournament title for the Pirates to go dancing.

SMU Mustangs

SMU is playing its worst basketball at the most important time of the year. The Mustangs lost their fourth-straight game on Saturday, a 13-point loss at the hands of Florida State. A team that once appeared to be an NCAA tournament lock now enters the ACC tournament needing a win or two to help the committee verify that the Mustangs belong.

Texas Longhorns

Texas lost its home finale on Saturday night in overtime to Oklahoma, a Quad 2 loss that will have Longhorns faithful stressed heading into the SEC tournament. A victory over the Sooners, who have now won six of their last eight, would have locked up a bid for Texas. The Longhorns are still likely to make the field, but an early exit in the conference tournament could leave the committee with questions heading into Selection Sunday.

UCF Knights

UCF closed the regular season losing three straight and six out of its last nine after losing by 15 at West Virginia on Friday night. What once appeared to be a sealed at-large bid has turned a bit dicey for the Knights down the stretch. While UCF should make the field, Johnny Dawkins’ club will want to avoid an early exit in the Big 12 tournament, just to be sure.

USC Trojans

USC’s last chance gasp to keep its chances of an at-large bid alive fell short on Saturday night at home against rival UCLA. The Trojans will now need to win the Big Ten tournament to make it into the Big Dance.

Virginia Tech Hokies

The Hokies lost their 10th Quad 1 contest in 12 tries on Saturday in Charlottesville against No. 13 Virginia, a four-point defeat that can be simply viewed as another missed opportunity in a season full of them. A victory on Saturday would have put Mike Young’s squad on the precipice of an at-large berth. Instead, it was another narrow loss that puts the program’s tournament chances in dire straits.

Much like fellow ACC opponent in Cal, Virginia Tech will need at least three wins in the ACC tournament, plus some help, to earn an at-large selection.