Purdue Keeps Failing Its Elite Tests, Pushing Title Hopes to the Brink

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Purdue’s championship-or-bust season is officially on life support.

For a third time this season, the Boilermakers lost on their usually vaunted home court, this time to a Michigan team that thoroughly outplayed the Boilers for 40 minutes. A fourth league loss essentially eliminates Purdue from Big Ten title contention. Watching the way the Boilermakers stacked up with the No. 1 team in the country Tuesday makes it increasingly difficult to believe No. 7 Purdue has a real chance of six wins in a row come NCAA tournament time.

The difference in quality from the contender to the pretender was obvious from the opening tip. It showed through clearest from a size and athleticism standpoint. Purdue struggled mightily to finish around the rim early with 7' 3" Aday Mara patrolling the paint. Postgame, Purdue head coach Matt Painter said the Boilermakers largely got the shots they wanted, but shooting 9 of 18 at the rim can largely be attributed to their struggles with Michigan’s elite size, something that has popped up against top-tier teams this season. And on the glass, where Painter’s team got beat up in both previous home losses to Illinois and Iowa State, Michigan set an early tone, dominating the offensive glass and generating 14 second-chance points in the first half.

“When they got offensive rebounds, they made us pay,” Painter said.

While star point guard Braden Smith stacked up stats in the second half, he was largely a no-show in the first half as Michigan built its lead to 20. Smith was held scoreless on 0-of-4 shooting in the opening period, though he amassed five assists.

All told, it was rarely a fair fight. Purdue scored the game’s first five points, but was down 10 by the 10-minute mark of the first half and trailed 42–22 with four minutes to go until halftime. The Boilermakers slowly chipped away in the second half, but never seriously threatened, only getting as close as eight down before eventually succumbing to a 91–80 defeat.

Purdue’s first major goal of the season was a Big Ten championship. Painter admitted that dream was dead.

“Our goal was to win the Big Ten,” Painter said. “These dudes [Michigan] ain’t losing four games. We’ve got four losses. They ain’t losing four games. So that’s just reality.”

Painter certainly wouldn’t close the door on a national title run. He spoke in clichés about NCAA tournament runs being built two wins at a time, while pointing out these high-profile clashes are largely just battles for seeding.

While Purdue has the point guard and veteran experience to make a run, there’s enough evidence of how the Boilers face off with the best. They’ve found ways to win against the “very good” of their schedule, like Texas Tech Alabama, Iowa and Nebraska. But Purdue has had three prime chances to take swings at college basketball’s elite on its home court and hasn’t landed a knockout.

Purdue was dismantled against Iowa State and was never close against Michigan; its lack of athleticism and positional size was exposed in both. Against Illinois, it was shredded for 46 points by freshman Keaton Wagler, losing to an undermanned Illini team without key backcourt cog Kylan Boswell; Purdue’s defensive structure wavered and it got pounded on the glass.

If Purdue can’t even hang with these teams with one of the best home court advantages in the country, why should anyone believe it can beat one (and likely two) in a Final Four weekend an hour down the road?

The Boilers are currently living off preseason expectations more than anything they have accomplished on the court this season. Take the preseason No. 1 tag away, and there’s little evidence to suggest this group belongs in the “great” category. Great point guard, sure. Great coach, too. But a great team? Smith’s secondary stars, especially senior leaders Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn, haven’t lived up to their billing.

Purdue guard Braden Smith drives the ball past Michigan forward Morez Johnson Jr. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Loyer had two chances at potential comeback-sparking threes in transition in the second half against Michigan. Both missed everything. Kaufman-Renn had one of his more productive games of the season, but Michigan being comfortable with him taking 26 shots makes clear what the Wolverines really think of his potency as a star. Transfer big man Oscar Cluff has made a big impact, but Purdue’s young guards have been somewhat disappointing. It’s a group that, in totality, is more comparable to last season’s good-not-great group—that they ran back most of the roster from—than a team of Michigan’s caliber.

“You can be preseason No. 1 in the country, it means nothing,” Painter said. “But when you’re in the middle of February and you’re No. 1 in the country, it means a whole lot because you earn that one. [Michigan] earned that one. We’ve just got to keep earning ours, too.”

The clock is ticking fast on earning it, and with that ticking on the career of a generational star in Smith, who’s pacing to make a serious push at Bobby Hurley’s all-time NCAA assists record. Two years ago, when Zach Edey–led Purdue lost in the national championship to UConn, there was a feeling the Boilermakers might never be that good again under Painter. Smith’s emergence into a bona fide superstar the next season changed that and set the stage for this season of expectations. It’d be foolish to fully count out one of the best player development programs in the country to produce another sensational player like that, but they also don’t grow on trees.

Chances like this with players like Smith are fleeting; Purdue in its first 26 games hasn’t taken advantage of the opportunity that comes with it. And with each passing game where Purdue looks outmatched by the elite of college basketball, it becomes less and less likely that a season that started with expectations of multiple banners ends with any at all.

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