Men’s Basketball State of the Bubble: Stock Up, Stock Down After a Loaded Saturday Slate

The final Saturday in February featured a college basketball slate that was absolutely loaded with postseason implications.

Several teams met the moment and notched another feather in the cap for their tournament résumés, while others faltered at exactly the wrong time in the schedule.

Let's take stock in the NCAA tournament bubble after a wild Saturday across college basketball.

Stock Up

Texas Longhorns

Texas lifted itself off the bubble with a gritty 76–70 road win at Texas A&M on Saturday. The Longhorns should make the NCAA tournament, barring an 0–2 finish that would include a loss to a disappointing Oklahoma team. A split against the Sooners and Arkansas should lock up a bid for the Longhorns.

TCU Horned Frogs

The Horned Frogs were locked in a tight game with Kansas State late in the second half on Saturday, but pulled away late for a nine-point road win. It was a game that TCU could ill-afford to lose, which kept it on the right side of the bubble heading into the final two games of the regular season. Contests on the road against red-hot JT Toppin-less Texas Tech and at home against fellow bubble foe Cincinnati remain. A split in those two games could seal TCU a bid prior to the Big 12 tournament.

Santa Clara Broncos

Santa Clara could not afford to slip up in its WCC regular season finale on Saturday against Oregon, and it did not. The Broncos rolled over Oregon State, 93–72, as a final tune-up for the conference tournament. Santa Clara remains one of the last teams on the right side of the bubble, so a win over either Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s in the upcoming WCC tournament would really help the résumé.

New Mexico Lobos

In a battle of two Mountain West bubble teams, New Mexico emerged victorious against San Diego State on Saturday to improve its at-large status. The Lobos host Colorado State up next and then travel to Utah State, where a win could seal an at-large bid regardless of how the conference tournament goes.

VCU Rams

VCU took care of business against Fordham on Saturday at home, winning by 19 in a game the Rams were supposed to win. Two more conference games remain against George Mason and Dayton before the A-10 tournament. The Rams are good, but their résumé still lacks quality wins. VCU could potentially make the NCAA tournament without an A-10 conference title, but raising a trophy in a couple weeks wouldn’t hurt.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati has now won five of its last six after smashing Oklahoma State at home on Saturday. Games against tournament lock BYU and fellow bubble program TCU remain. Wins against both could put the Bearcats on the precipice of an at-large bid.

West Virginia Mountaineers

It’s likely too little, too late for Mountaineers’ NCAA tournament hopes, but Saturday still marked a step in the right direction for Ross Hodge in Year 1 at the helm. West Virginia was very impressive in a home victory over AJ Dybantsa and No. 19 BYU, surviving a late Cougars run to clinch the upset in Morgantown. West Virginia has games remaining at Kansas State and home against UCF, the latter of which could seriously propel the Mountaineers back into the tournament discussion with a victory heading into the Big 12 tournament.

Stock Down

Auburn Tigers

Nobody on the bubble has played in more Quad 1 games than Auburn’s 16. The fact that the Tigers have won five of those games is the only reason they’re even in the bubble conversation to begin with.

Saturday night’s six-point Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss, who had lost 10 in a row entering play, is positive proof that the Tigers don’t belong in the NCAA tournament field. It’s a tough look for Steven Pearl, whose iconic father went on national television earlier in the day to conveniently dispute the at-large merits of 29–0 Miami (OH) due to the program’s strength of schedule, and hint at the Red Hawks not being nearly as good as some other teams on the bubble. Wonder what that could have been about.

SMU Mustangs

The Mustangs entered their game on Saturday safely in the projected NCAA tournament field. However, Andy Enfield’s club was drubbed by 20 on the road at Stanford, its second consecutive loss on a two-game West Coast trip against the California ACC schools. SMU closes the season with Miami and Florida State. Nobody will fault the Mustangs for losing to Miami, but a loss on the road against an up-and-down Seminoles squad to finish the season could put SMU in precarious territory heading into the ACC tournament.

Texas A&M Aggies

Once seen as a tournament shoo-in, the Aggies have lost two straight and six of their last eight after falling 76–70 at home against Texas on Saturday. Bucky McMillian has put together an impressive first season in College Station, but A&M will have to finish strong against Kentucky and LSU to seal their fate. This is still likely a tournament team, but things are heading in the wrong direction.

San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs have lost three of their last four games, including an 81–76 defeat on Saturday at New Mexico. Both San Diego State and New Mexico sit squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble, with Saturday’s winner on the right side of the bubble and Saturday’s loser on the wrong side of it. A must-win road game against Boise State awaits the Aztecs this week, before a regular season finale against UNLV at home next weekend.

Cal Golden Bears

One way to effectively end your chances of making the NCAA tournament is by losing by 16 at home to 11–18 Pittsburgh like Cal did on Saturday. The Golden Bears have road games remaining at Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest, neither of which will be enough to offset a loss like this. Cal will need to go on a run in the ACC tournament to make it to March.

UCLA Bruins

After upsetting No. 10 Illinois in overtime and smashing crosstown rival USC in their last two games, UCLA lost another head-scratcher on Saturday on the road against 14–15 Minnesota. After appearing to turn a corner and put the NCAA tournament bubble behind them, the Bruins are now in precarious territory heading into the final week of the regular season. It’s likely that this is still a tournament team, but an 0–3 finish to the conference slate could put some pressure on Mick Cronin and Co. heading into the Big Ten tournament.

USC Trojans

The Trojans have now lost five straight games after a 15-point home loss to No. 12 Nebraska on Saturday afternoon. The Trojans have games at Washington and home against UCLA to close, and will need a 2–0 finish and some wins in the Big Ten tournament for any chance at an at-large berth.

Virginia Tech Hokies

The Hokies found themselves tied at halftime with No. 18 North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Saturday night, but let another Q1 opportunity slip away. Much like USC, it’ll take a 2–0 finish against Boston College and a top 15 Virginia team, plus some wins in the ACC tournament for a final at-large push. It’s been a season marred by injuries to key players and frustrating close losses for Mike Young’s program, which was plenty good enough on paper to make the NCAA tournament.

Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall had No. 6 UConn on the ropes on Saturday afternoon at Gampel Pavilion, in an outcome that certainly would have propelled Shaheen Holloway and Co. back into the NCAA tournament conversation. Seton Hall travels to Xavier and hosts St. John’s to finish the season. Much like several teams on this list, the Pirates will need a 2–0 finish and some wins in the Big East tournament for any outside shot of an at-large bid.