2014 Group of Five college football preview: Which non-power conference teams could make some noise this fall?
|American Athletic Conference||Cincinnati||9-3 (7-1)|
|Conference USA||Marshall||12-0 (8-0)|
|Mid-American Conference||Bowling Green||10-2 (8-0)|
|Mountain West Conference||Boise State||10-2 (7-1)|
|Sun Belt Conference||Louisiana||10-2 (8-0)|
Highest-ranked Group of Five team: Marshall
Three key nonconference games
Boise State vs. Ole Miss (in Atlanta), Aug. 28 (ESPN)
Week 1 will offer the first big clue as to whether Boise State can maintain the success it experienced under Chris Petersen now that Bryan Harsin is in charge. One game against an on-the-rise SEC opponent won’t make or break the Harsin era, but this matchup should provide some early insight into how the Broncos will rebound from an 8-5 campaign, their worst finish under Petersen. Injuries and inexperience plagued last year’s Boise State team. There is reason to expect improvement in 2014.
Appalachian State at Michigan, Aug. 30 (ESPN2)
Appalachian State heads into its season opener with low expectations, as the Mountaineers join the FBS fresh off a 4-8 mark in their final FCS campaign. Still, if Michigan learned one thing from these teams’ matchup in 2007, it’s not to take Appalachian State lightly. This is the program that won a conference title as recently as '12 and won three straight FCS championships from ‘05 to ’07.
Louisiana at Ole Miss, Sept. 13 (SEC Network)
Ole Miss will have to fend off another strong Group of Five foe in September, this time at home against Louisiana. Playing in the Sun Belt, the Ragin’ Cajuns will be hard-pressed to earn the Group of Five’s berth into the New Year’s Six bowls. A road victory over the Rebels would certainly bolster their cause.
Three key conference games
East Carolina at Cincinnati, Nov. 13 (ESPN2)
East Carolina is poised to immediately jump into the mix for an American Athletic Conference title. A November meeting with Cincinnati should help sort out the top of the league standings. The Bearcats ranked 12th nationally in yards allowed per play (4.7) last year. They’ll need that defensive aptitude to stifle Carden and a potent Pirates’ offense.
Bowling Green at Toledo, Nov. 19 (ESPN2/ESPNU)
Bowling Green will undergo a transformation with the introduction of Babers’ offense, which helped Eastern Illinois lead the FCS in both total offense (589.5 yards per game) and scoring offense (48.2 points per game) in 2013. In addition to Johnson, the Falcons return tailback Travis Greene, who set a school record with 1,594 rushing yards last fall. Meanwhile, Toledo is one of three teams (along with Northern Illinois and Ball State) in the hunt to win the MAC West. This late-season matchup could be a preview of the conference championship game, especially if the Rockets take care of business at Northern Illinois the week before.
Utah State at Boise State, Nov. 29 (TBD)
The road to the Mountain West championship will likely run through the Mountain Division, which features the top two squads in the conference. The Aggies and Broncos end the regular season on the blue turf in what will likely serve as a de facto league semifinal. The winner will be the heavy favorite to claim the title.
Five key questions
How will UCF weather the loss of Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson? After spoiling what was supposed to be Louisville’s coronation and big sendoff from the American, UCF waved goodbye to its own royalty in quarterback Bortles and running back Johnson. Replacing the duo that accounted for 87 percent of the Knights’ total offense in 2013 won’t be easy, and the loss of two all-AAC linemen won’t make that task any simpler. However, all four starters return to a UCF secondary that allowed 6.5 yards per passing attempt last year. Still, the Knights went 7-1 in one-score games last fall, a mark that will be difficult to replicate.
Which Group of Five team will earn the spot in the New Year’s Six? Under the new playoff format, the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five is guaranteed a berth in one of the New Year’s Six bowls, the group of bowl games that will serve as the playoff semifinals on a rotational basis (the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Peach and Cotton bowls). Marshall seems to have the easiest route to that slot with its weak nonconference schedule, its manageable Conference USA slate and its loaded offense. However, if Marshall slips, Bowling Green or Cincinnati could swoop in to steal the bid.
How good is Cincinnati’s Gunner Kiel? The world will finally learn just how good the former blue-chip recruit is. Kiel committed to Indiana and LSU before enrolling at Notre Dame, transferring to Cincinnati and missing the 2013 season. Now he is set to take the field. If he lives up to the hype, Kiel can lead the Bearcats to an AAC title. If he falters, Munchie Legaux could retake the starting role.
How will Wyoming's Craig Bohl adjust to the FBS? After winning three consecutive FCS national titles at North Dakota State, Bohl made the jump to the FBS in December to take over Wyoming. The coach has his work cut out trying to get the Cowboys back to bowl eligibility after two straight losing seasons. Wyoming ranked 100th in yards allowed per play last year and loses quarterback Brett Smith. But Bohl knows how to rebuild: North Dakota State went 2-8 the year before he arrived and won eight games in each of his first two seasons.
Can a surprise team win the American? Cincinnati is the favorite, and defending champ UCF is drawing plenty of preseason buzz. But could a less heralded team win the league? It’s certainly possible. East Carolina and Houston are potential candidates. The Pirates bring back Carden, while the Cougars return 17 starters, including quarterback John O’Korn and receivers Deontay Greenberry and Daniel Spencer (134 combined receptions for 1,971 yards). A run to a conference crown would be a wonderful way for Houston to break in its new stadium.