Five Matchups That Will Decide the College Football Playoff National Championship

It all comes down to this.

Indiana and Miami will meet Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in the College Football Playoff national championship game. It’s a matchup between two programs that are representative of a new era of college football, one dominated by expensive rosters and NIL deals. But it’s also a meeting between two programs that have prevailed over the sport’s true bluebloods in unique ways. From Indiana’s fairy-tale run from the losingest program in the sport’s history to one win away from a 16–0 season to Miami’s winding path back to national championship contender after two decades in the wilderness, this will be a historic title winner.

The personalities and storylines involved are captivating, but when it comes to the actual play in between the lines, who has the advantage? Indiana enters the game as a significant favorite, but what can Miami do to close the gap?

Here are the five most important matchups and factors that will determine the outcome of Monday night’s title game:

Fernando Mendoza’s decision making vs. Miami’s opportunistic defense

This may not be the turnover chain glory days in South Beach, but this Canes defense generates takeaways in myriad ways. Miami has forced 25 turnovers in 15 games, five of which came in the team’s two playoff wins against Texas A&M and Ohio State. And it’s not so much just the sheer volume; it’s the range of ways the Hurricanes force other teams to make mistakes. Miami’s top three defensive backs (safeties Jakobe Thomas and Bryce Fitzgerald, plus cornerback Keionte Scott) all have multiple interceptions with Thomas and Scott also boasting two forced fumbles apiece. On the front line, Akheem Mesidor has forced four fumbles.

The issue for the Miami defense? Mendoza’s knack for ball security. The Hoosiers have lost just one fumble all season—and that was running back Lee Beebe Jr., not Mendoza, all the way back in the opener against Old Dominion. Since then, the Heisman Trophy winner has thrown just six interceptions and never more than one in any single game. If Mendoza does make a rare mistake, he quickly brushes it off and moves forward, picking apart defenses with precision.

That said, the Indiana quarterback had a few dicey moments against Oregon in the semifinal, putting the ball on the turf twice but having the ball bounce right back into his hands. If he’s that loose with the football again, chances are Miami will come up with at least one takeaway that could send the home fans into a frenzy.

Miami WR Malachi Toney vs. Indiana CB D’Angelo Ponds

Perhaps the best 1-vs.-1 matchup of the game pits the Hurricanes’ most versatile playmaker against the Hoosiers’ most consistent defender. Two undersized players with tremendous athleticism, one a 18-year-old true freshman. The other, a Curt Cignetti protégé from James Madison.

Toney is the most targeted receiver on the Miami offense by a wide margin (127 targets to Keelan Marion’s 77) and that doesn’t account for the ways Mario Cristobal will use him in the run game. Plus, he has a solid arm, which the Canes like to utilize on trick plays. Toney will get the ball early and often—it’s just a matter of how effective Miami is at actually getting him the football.

On the other side, Ponds is the most targeted player on the Indiana defense (57), but has allowed the lowest completion percentage when targeted (52.6%) among any Hoosier with more than 30 passes thrown his way this season. He’s a true shutdown corner, leading the team with eight passes defended and with the capability of making game-altering plays, like he did with the pick-six on the opening play from scrimmage against Oregon.

Given how Miami often lines Toney up all over the field, it’s possible these two won’t find themselves across from each other too often. But when they do, keep an eye on who wins each snap.

Miami DEs Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor vs. vs. Indiana OTs Carter Smith and Kahlil Benson

Miami’s two-man wrecking crew up front is on an absolute tear. Bain and Mesidor sort of have a Batman and Robin dynamic, only both are more Caped Crusader than sidekick. The pair have combined for 19 sacks and 28.5 tackles for loss this season, and have only gotten more disruptive in the playoff. Bain took the lead against Texas A&M with three sacks. Then it was Mesidor’s turn against Ohio State with two sacks of his own.

That’s the difficulty of stopping the dynamic Miami duo; if one is having an off night (or you boast one elite pass blocker), the other will probably hurt you. Indiana has elite play in the trenches, mostly due to standout left tackle Smith. The consensus All-American hasn’t allowed a sack all season, yielding just six pressures while playing clean football. Smith’s counterpart at right tackle, Benson, is also reliable but has gotten picked on far more often this season. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed four sacks and 24 pressures, both team highs.

That likely means whichever Miami pass rusher, Mesidor or Bain, is lined up against Benson will have a chance to get home against Mendoza, who’s taken 22 sacks this season.

Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. vs. Indiana’s front seven

On the other side of the battle in the trenches, a hard-nosed Miami offensive line will have to go up against one of the best run defenses in the country. But the Canes also have one of the toughest backs in the nation in Fletcher.

Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. reacts after a play. — Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is one carry shy of 200 this season heading into the title game. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Though he’s still one carry shy of 200 this season, which is just an average of 13 carries per game, the junior ballcarrier has taken on a punishing workload this season—and thrives when the game gets more physical. Of Fletcher’s 1,072 yards on the ground, 740 have come after contact. He’s shown an elite ability to get past the first level of defenses, and when he does, Miami is left with far more manageable third downs and distances.

But it’s also fair to say that Fletcher hasn’t played a run defense like Indiana’s yet. The Hoosiers have allowed just six rushing touchdowns all season, and allow a measly 2.87 yards per carry. Tyrique Tucker is the man in the middle that clogs everything up on the line of scrimmage, but at the second level Indiana’s linebackers tackle exceptionally well. Aiden Fisher, Rolijah Hardy and Isaiah Jones excel playing downhill. The key for Indiana will be finishing tackles, because if they don’t, Fletcher is bound to rumble forward for another couple yards on every single carry he gets.

Carson Beck’s deep ball vs. Indiana’s reliable secondary

Beck was rightfully given credit for scoring the game-winning touchdown against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. He made plays when it mattered most and kept Miami in the mix while Trinidad Chambliss was making his own sort of magic for the Rebels. But there was a pretty obvious hole in Beck’s game during the semifinal: downfield throws.

Other than a 52-yard touchdown to a wide-open Marion, Beck was 0 for 6 on throws of more than 15 yards down the field against Ole Miss. And that’s been the trend for him this season. Beck doesn’t throw the ball deep often (only 58 of his 435 attempts were for more than 20 yards) and when he does he’s not very accurate (44.8%) and often puts the ball in harm’s way. Against Indiana’s loaded secondary, the sort of performance Beck had against Ole Miss could be a huge problem.

The Hoosiers have the best turnover margin in the country, in part because they don’t turn the ball over but also because of their defense’s ability to follow through after putting their opponents in precarious situations. Indiana has 18 interceptions and doesn’t tend to drop many pick opportunities, like Miami’s own secondary did in the Fiesta Bowl.

Of course, whichever team wins the turnover battle will be set up for success on Monday night. But in addition to protecting the ball, Beck needs to be sharp when the big opportunities come his way because they won’t come frequently against Indiana.

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