Indiana vs. Miami: How Each Team Can Win CFP National Championship, Expert Picks

The coaches in this matchup—Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and Miami’s Mario Cristobal—enter with their own set of pressure to win a title.

Can Mario Cristobal get Miami back atop the sport after decades of falling short? / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

The College Football Playoff national championship game is set between the most dominant team this season, No. 1 Indiana, and the final team in the playoff field, No. 10 Miami. The two programs’ history tells a different story, though, with the Hoosiers coming into this season as the losingest program in college football history and the Hurricanes boasting five titles. They’ll meet Jan. 19 at the Hurricanes’ home stadium of Hard Rock Stadium in Miami for the right to claim the golden trophy. Will Indiana earn its first national title? Or will Miami overcome all odds against it this season? Sports Illustrated writers Pat Forde and Bryan Fischer take a look at the matchup and discuss how each program can win, adding their predictions for the game.

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Which head coach is under more pressure: Miami’s Mario Cristobal or Indiana’s Curt Cignetti?

Pat Forde: When Indiana upset Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game to enter the playoff undefeated and No. 1, that shifted a different burden onto Cignetti’s shoulders. The national championship expectations that had never existed in program history became very real. Now his team has to finish the drill.

The Hoosiers have done remarkably well carrying that burden for two rounds, absolutely dominating Alabama and Oregon. They have not yet faced significant game pressure in the playoff. We’ll see if Miami can get going early and apply some. The historical precedent the Hurricanes should hope repeats itself is the 1984 Orange Bowl, when they came in as underdogs against a juggernaut Nebraska team and pulled the upset with a loose confidence and nothing to lose. That game started the Miami dynasty; this would be a nice callback to that South Florida stunner.

Bryan Fischer: In any other year, the head coach in charge of his alma mater—playing at the team’s home stadium, no less—would be facing an enormous amount of pressure to get over the hump and win (another) national title to signify that their program is, indeed, back. There’s no denying that there’s a lot of pressure on Cristobal in that case but it’s also true that they are playing with, well, house money on Monday night. The Hurricanes have titles in their trophy cases, they have legends in the Hall of Fame and more than one series of documentaries dedicated to just how good their program has been. 

Indiana? It has none of that. It has been college football’s version of a laughingstock, the program every other Big Ten school saw on their schedule and immediately booked homecoming for across decades and decades of futility. Now the Hoosiers have a chance at not just history in the sport as the first ever 16–0 FBS team, but they can top off one of the most remarkable turnarounds in sports history. Only Leicester City’s 2016 Premier League title comes close in my mind. That’s what Cignetti is battling: the weight of historic immortality. That, to me, is way more pressure on the line and the kind of title run we’ll be spending decades discussing—if they can get the job done. 

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti has led the most stunning turnaround in college sports history. / Kevin D. Liles/Sports Illustrated

What is Miami’s best path to victory?

Forde: The vaunted Miami pass rush that produced five sacks against Ohio State and seven against Texas A&M has to get home against Fernando Mendoza—and, if possible, create a turnover or two. Indiana hasn’t lost a fumble since the first quarter of the first game of the season, but Mendoza got loose with the ball twice against Oregon. He got away with it, but rest assured the Hurricanes will be trying to knock it loose.

Offensively, Miami will have to replicate the formula of the last two games: 20 touches from scrimmage for physical back Mark Fletcher Jr., some big plays from Malachi Toney and a very clean game from quarterback Carson Beck. Seeing Toney matched up against another athletic freak from South Florida, D’Angelo Ponds, will be compelling theater—and as good as Ponds is, he has also given up some deep shots this season. The Canes probably need to hit a couple of splash plays from scrimmage against a defense that has given up 13 plays of 40 yards or longer.

Fischer: Play clean and outtalent Indiana in open space, pretty much. That was what worked against reigning champion Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and it’s about the only thing that is going to work against a team that plays as flawlessly as Indiana does. Beck has to have the game of his life and look like a guy who is going No. 1 overall instead of either of the two Big Ten signal-callers who played in the Peach Bowl. Fletcher is going to have to turn every three-yard carry into a six-yard gain. That tandem of Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor needs to get to Mendoza much like it did Marcel Reed in the first round, not barely touch the QB like it did in the Fiesta Bowl against Trinidad Chambliss. 

Miami has to play incredibly disciplined on defense at all three levels and can’t commit more than one or two penalties. Then, the Canes have to let “Baby Jesus” himself, Toney, find some space, find room to wiggle out of a tackle and hopefully hit the jets enough times to make this a close game in the fourth quarter to toss the pressure back over to the Hoosiers’ sideline.

Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney will be key if Miami wants to win a sixth national championship. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

What is Indiana’s best path to victory?

Forde: Protect Mendoza and the path is clear. Six teams have thrown for at least 248 yards against Miami, and Indiana is well-equipped to be the seventh. When given time, Mendoza is deadly accurate and his receivers excel at contested catches. Balance that with the usual physical running game, and Indiana will score enough points.

Defensively, getting Fletcher on the ground will be job No. 1. He tends to win the first collision, but Indiana tackles very well. Then it’s a matter of containing Toney in space. The Hoosiers have been able to both confuse and harass three straight high-level quarterbacks. Beck will have his biggest challenge to date.

Fischer: Play your own, controlled game. This team is No. 2 in scoring offense and scoring defense, tops in the country in turnover margin (+21) and the best at moving the sticks on third down. They haven’t let the moment get to them once kickoff has arrived and that has to continue, from making sure the quarterback and receivers are always on the same page to not having any coverage busts on the back end of the defense. Miami sometimes gets in its own way, but it has the personnel and ruthless nature to take advantage of mistakes if you allow it and suddenly a game you should be winning turns into a fist fight on their home turf (quite literally, in this case). 

There’s a reason these Hoosiers are a significant favorite, and there’s a reason why they are undefeated from a significantly better league. The relentless nature of the way they steamroll opponents has sometimes obscured how this really might be the team who plays the cleanest brand of football in modern history. As long as they keep doing that, they should be enjoying the confetti deep into Monday night.

Indiana will need to protect quarterback Fernando Mendoza if it wants to win its first national championship. / Kevin D. Liles/Sports Illustrated

Title game prediction with score 

Forde: I give Miami a puncher’s chance to at least keep it close, but there is no doubt which is the more buttoned-up team here. If this becomes a game of avoiding major mistakes, Indiana ranks among the best we’ve ever seen at that. And Cignetti is the more reliable decision-maker in a tight spot. Indiana 27, Miami 17.

Fischer: I’ve seen the Hurricanes plenty of times this season and knew they had the talent to get to this game. Will I ever be comfortable trusting them to get the job done in a spot where I know they’re going to feel some pressure? No, I don’t think I can do that. Ultimately, Indiana is just too good, too ruthless, too hell-bent on making history. We have a vast majority of CFP title games which have turned into blowouts, and I think that may be the case again despite any home-field advantage Miami might have. Indiana 41, Miami 20. 

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