How New Mexico’s Key Injury Shakes Up the CFP Race Right Away

FBS’s season hasn’t started yet, and already a seismic wrench has been thrown into the CFP race.

New Mexico quarterback Jack Layne will miss the 2026 season after undergoing a season-ending operation, Lobos coach Jason Eck announced Thursday, via Sean Reider of the Albuquerque Journal. Eck also indicated he will play multiple quarterbacks when New Mexico opens its season against Central Michigan on Sept. 5.

Layne recorded 13 touchdowns against 10 interceptions in 13 games last season, with the bulk of his interceptions concentrated in two three-pick outings against Michigan and San José State. He’s entering his fifth season—he has three under his belt at Idaho—and was expected to provide a valuable steady hand for the Lobos this year.

Now, it’s back to the drawing board for a team without a conference championship since 1964.

New Mexico made a major breakthrough last year, and has the potential for another one

The Lobos hired Eck away from the Vandals after the 2024 season, which saw New Mexico go 5–7 under veteran coach Bronco Mendenhall (its highest win total in eight years). Mendenhall immediately bolted for Utah State in his home state, ensuring Eck would have to win over a fanbase on its third coach in three years.

It did not take long. In his first month on the job, Eck kept the Lobos competitive with No. 14 Michigan, crushed UCLA and topped rival New Mexico State. New Mexico finished 9–4, its best record since 2016, and narrowly missed its first 10-win season since 1982. Mountain West tiebreakers, determined by computer metrics, kept the Lobos out of the conference championship after a four-way tie at 6–2 in conference with Boise State, San Diego State and UNLV.

Now, a CFP run looms as the next frontier for the Lobos. Even without Layne, the potential is there, thanks primarily to a salty defense led by linebacker Jaxton Eck (Jason’s son). The only game on its schedule where New Mexico will be a pronounced underdog is a primetime trip to Oklahoma on Sept. 19. UNLV, the Mountain West’s other serious contender, visits Albuquerque on Nov. 14. Every conference road trip is navigable on paper, although Hawai’i on Oct. 17 could threaten.

If Layne’s absence does handicap the Lobos offense, it reshuffles the Group of 6 deck. Suddenly Boise State—generally considered the popular CFP favorite among its cohort—has a much clearer path in its inaugural Pac-12 season, as does Navy out of the American. The Rebels could steal the upper hand in the Mountain West, and the Rainbow Warriors (who also get UNLV at home) could make noise as well.

What’s next at the quarterback position?

New Mexico has three options to choose from in all.

James Laubstein, a senior, saw action for the Lobos as early as 2024—completing 11 of 17 passes for 96 yards and two touchdowns in his 12-game career. Luke Moga, a transfer from Oregon, played in three games for the Ducks last season. Toa Fa’avae has just one Lobos appearance to his name, rushing once for two yards against Colorado State on Nov. 15.

New Mexico may be able to get away with an audition process against the Chippewas (good but not great in 2025) and Mercyhurst (an FCS squad that went 5–7 a year ago), but make no mistake—the Lobos need to act like the CFP contender they are. That means coming to a lasting decision sooner rather than later, and letting that quarterback lead to balance the defenses’s stinginess.

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