How Oklahoma’s Win vs. Tennessee Impacts Both Teams’ College Football Playoff Chances

Big plays on defense and an impactful rushing attack powered the Sooners to a significant road win past the Volunteers.

Tennessee, led by Josh Heupel, and Brent Venables’s Oklahoma program face off in an SEC clash with significant playoff stakes in Week 10. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Josh Heupel got a statement win over his alma mater Oklahoma a year ago in Norman, Okla., in the first showdown between his Tennessee program and the Sooners as SEC rivals. That early-season win helped vault the Vols into the heart of the SEC race, and they wound up a part of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. In this year’s return game at Neyland Stadium, it was Brent Venables’s turn to score a big win—this one keeping his team afloat amid a brutal November schedule, and likely eliminating Heupel’s club from CFP contention.

Tennessee outgained Oklahoma by over 100 yards, and OU was penalized 11 times for 104 yards, but the Sooners defense came up with a number of huge plays, had some big sacks on Joey Aguilar when he wasn’t racking up yards and completely took away the Volunteers rushing attack.

Here’s how the Sooners’ 33–27 win over the Vols positions both teams in the CFP hunt.

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How Oklahoma defeated Tennessee

Defense and a renewed run game. While the offense has sputtered at times, especially as the Sooners have tried to get John Mateer back close to full health, the defense has looked the part in 2025. They showed up and made huge plays against the turbo-charged Volunteers offense. Joey Aguilar got his, throwing for 393 yards and three touchdowns, but he was picked off twice, leading to a pair of OU field goals, and fumbled on a sack by Owen Heinicke, which star pass rusher R Mason Thomas returned in miraculous fashion, 71 yards for a touchdown to tie the game early.

SCOOP. STIFF ARM. SCORE.@thomss_r | 📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/GK22uaYanI

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 2, 2025

Heinicke and Thomas had two of four sacks for the Sooners, who also held Tennessee to a paltry 1.8 yards per carry on the day. Aguilar posted a gaudy stat line, but he had very little help.

Mateer averaged just 5.5 yards per attempt and threw a bad interception in the fourth quarter that set up a late Vols touchdown that cut the lead to 26–24, but he was a major factor on the ground rushing for a season-high 80 yards and a score. Oklahoma had struggled on the ground without a major Mateer threat over the last few weeks, but Xavier Robinson stepped up in a huge way on Saturday, gashing the Vols defense for 115 yards and a score—and nearly had a second after a breakaway 43 yard run, before he went down at the 1-yard line to allow his team to eat a bit more clock.

With Oklahoma’s win…

… the Sooners regained some much-needed momentum after dropping two of three games against other teams vying for playoff spots out of the SEC. The 23–6 loss to Texas seemed to indicate that Mateer rushed back from hand surgery. He hasn’t looked like the same player, even in a solid win over South Carolina. While his passing numbers don’t blow anyone away, his expanded impact in the run game is a good sign. Mateer largely hadn’t been a factor on the ground since returning after being a very dangerous dual-threat quarterback before his injury. His 80 rushing yards against the Volunteers were a season high.

Beginning with last week’s loss to Ole Miss, the Sooners have one of the most difficult late-season schedules in college football, and very little wiggle room with two losses already on the slate. It wasn’t pretty, but a loss to Tennessee would have meant that Oklahoma would’ve had to beat all of Alabama, Missouri and LSU down the stretch, and the Sooners may have still needed some real help to land an at-large bid at 9–3. The margin of error is small, but it still exists with a quality win in Neyland, which is now OU’s best of the season.

Oklahoma’s 2025 football schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.

Date	Opponent	Score
Aug. 30	vs. Illinois State	W 35–3
Sept. 6	vs. No. 21 Michigan	W 24–13
Sept. 13	at Temple	W 42–3
Sept. 20	vs. Auburn	W 24–17
Oct. 4	vs. Kent State	W 44–0
Oct. 11	vs. No. 20 Texas (in Dallas)	L 23–6
Oct. 18	at South Carolina	W 26–7
Oct. 25	vs. No. 8 Ole Miss	L 34–26
Nov. 1	at No. 14 Tennessee	W 33–27
Nov. 15	at No. 4 Alabama	TBD
Nov. 22	vs. No. 19 Missouri	TBD
Nov. 29	vs. LSU	TBD

With Tennessee’s loss...

… the Vols are in trouble.

Tennessee’s late-season stretch, especially compared to that of Oklahoma, is manageable, but that isn’t the best news when Josh Heupel & Co. need big wins. They missed their chance vs. Georgia early in the year, and were outclassed by Alabama. Now Oklahoma, one of two ranked opponents in the final four games for Tennessee, is off the board. Winning out against New Mexico State, at Florida and against a very good Vanderbilt team would make for an impressive season, especially in a year that many figured would be a bit of a rebuild in Knoxville, but it is very unlikely that it will be enough to earn an at-large. 

ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Tennessee just a 5% chance of reaching the CFP if it wins out after the loss to the Sooners.

Tennessee’s 2025 football schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.

Date	Opponent	Score
Aug. 30	vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta)	W 45–26
Sept. 6	vs. East Tennessee State	W 72–17
Sept. 13	vs. No. 5 Georgia	L 44–41 (OT)
Sept. 20	vs. UAB	W 56–24
Sept. 27	at Mississippi State	W 41–34 (OT)
Oct. 11	vs. Arkansas	W 34–31
Oct. 18	at Alabama	L 37–20
Oct. 25	at Kentucky	W 56–34
Nov. 1	vs. No. 18 Oklahoma	L 33–27
Nov. 15	vs. New Mexico State	TBD
Nov. 22	at Florida	TBD
Nov. 29	vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt	TBD

Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Tennessee, Oklahoma

Pat Forde had both programs on the outside looking in of his playoff projections following Week 9. Oklahoma is included in his list of teams that could have the most significant impact on the playoff race going forward, though, with three of their four remaining games coming against other CFP hopefuls. 

Bryan Fischer also didn’t have either Tennessee or Oklahoma in his live bracket after Week 9, or his forward-looking projection. Ahead of Saturday’s game, he projected the Volunteers to the Gator Bowl against Louisville, and the Sooners to a Texas Bowl date with Cincinnati, both of which take place on Dec. 27. After Oklahoma’s win, however, he has the Sooners as the No. 10 seed in his current live playoff bracket, set to face off against Oregon in Eugene, Ore. in the first round.

Fischer will be updating his Week 10 live 12-team bracket throughout Saturday. Check back for updates through the day’s action.

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