What lies ahead of for newest batch for 4- and 5-star QBs?

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Blue-chip quarterback recruits bring hype and hope to campuses.

The reality is those celebrated QBs are more likely to transfer than start for the schools they sign with Wednesday. Of the top 25 quarterbacks in the class of 2013, at least 14 will not finish their college careers where they started.

According to research by Fox Sports, 47 percent of all the four- and five-star quarterbacks from 2011-14 transferred.

The ones that do quickly ascend to the top of the depth chart often end up driving away incumbent quarterbacks.

With national signing day officially bringing a new crop of quarterbacks into college football, AP takes a look at the situations this year's four- and fives-stars are entering and what it could mean for the players already on the rosters.

Quarterback rankings are from 247Sports.com' composite ratings. Depth charts are projected based on scholarship quarterbacks on the roster and do not including incoming freshman. Class years are at the start of the 2017 season. (x- denotes a quarterback is an early enrollee.)


No. 1 Davis Mills, Stanford

Depth chart

Ryan Burns, fifth-year senior

K.J. Costello, sophomore

Keller Chryst, senior

Outlook: Chryst's severe knee injury in the Sun Bowl could clear the way for Costello, a former four-star recruit, to grab hold of the job in the spring. As for Mills, Stanford does not allow freshman to enroll early so he is likely looking toward a competition with Costello in 2018.

No. 2 Hunter Johnson-x, Clemson

Depth chart:

Kelly Bryant, junior

Zerrick Cooper, redshirt freshman

Tucker Israel, third-year sophomore

Outlook: Bryant is slated to get the first snaps in spring ball, but the competition to replace Deshaun Watson is wide open. Cooper is the most highly touted of the holdovers. Johnson will have a chance to shake things up. Clemson also has No. 20 quarterback prospect Chase Brice in this signing class, and already holds a commitment from the Trevor Lawrence, the top-rated QB in 2018.

No. 3 Tua Tagovailoa-x, Alabama

Depth chart

Jalen Hurts, sophomore

Outlook: Hurts' rapid rise to starter as a freshman caused the veteran quarterbacks at Alabama to scatter via transfers. That means Tagovailoa, who went to the same high school as Marcus Mariota, has a straight shot to being at least Alabama's backup in 2017. Considering how Hurts hit a wall in his development as a passer at the end of last season, Tagovailoa could create some real intrigue this offseason in Tuscaloosa. Needing depth, the Tide also has No. 21 prospect Mac Jones coming on board.

No. 4 Jake Fromm-x, Georgia

Depth chart

Jacob Eason, sophomore

Brice Ramsey, senior

Outlook: Eason was good enough as a freshman starter to warrant optimism for the next two seasons. Ramsey is now first and foremost a punter so Fromm could be the true No. 2 if something goes wrong with Eason. Ideally, Fromm can redshirt in 2017, back up in 2018 and take over in 2019 after Eason leaves early for the NFL draft.

No. 5 Tate Martell-x, Ohio State

Depth chart

J.T. Barrett, fifth-year senior

Joe Burrow, third-year sophomore

Dwayne Haskins, redshirt freshman

Outlook: Barring injuries, it is hard to project a scenario in which Burrow, Haskins and Martell, who was originally committed to Texas A&M, all finish their careers at Ohio State. They are all too talented to sit. That's the long-term intrigue. In the short term, Barrett, the most prolific quarterback in Ohio State history, has a new offensive coordinator and QB coach and some legitimate competition for his job in 2017.

6) Jack Sears-x, Southern California

Depth chart

Sam Darnold, third-year sophomore

Sam Fink, redshirt freshman

Outlook: Sears replaced Darnold at San Clemente (California) High School. If Darnold's first season as a starter goes as well, Sears will get a chance to replace him again in 2018.

7) Kellen Mond-x, Texas A&M

Depth chart

Jake Hubenak, senior

Nick Starkel, redshirt freshman

Outlook: All these blue chippers arrive on campus saying that they want to start as freshmen. Mond probably has the best chance.

8) Sam Ehlinger-x, Texas

Depth chart

Shane Buechele, sophomore

Matthew Merrick, third-year sophomore

Outlook: The Longhorns' situation is similar to Georgia's, with Ehlinger stepping in behind a freshman starter. The difference is new coach Tom Herman recruited Ehlinger not Buechele and Ehlinger's mobility could be a better fit in the offense.

9) Dylan McCaffrey-x, Michigan

Depth chart

Wilton Speight, senior

John O'Korn, fifth-year senior

Alex Malzone, junior

Brandon Peters, redshirt freshman

Outlook: Speight and O'Korn should capably fill the position this season. McCaffrey is the guy Michigan fans are dreaming about for 2018. Peters was a four-star recruit, too, but he seems in danger of getting squeezed.

No. 10 Myles Brennan and No. 19 Lowell Narcisse-x, LSU

Depth chart

Danny Etling, fifth-year senior,

Brandon Harris, senior

Justin McMillan, third-year sophomore

Lindsey Scott Jr., redshirt freshman

Outlook: You might have heard the Tigers have had some quarterback issues in recent seasons. Everybody starts even with new offensive coordinator Matt Canada, and no reason to think the new guys can't pass the holdovers sooner rather than later.

No. 11 Keytaon Thompson-x, Mississippi State

Depth chart

Nick Fitzgerald, fourth-year junior

Outlook: Yep, Fitzgerald is the only scholarship quarterback on the roster. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, he's a good one. Coach Dan Mullen could be in the market for a transfer to provide some short-term depth and to avoid having to burn a year of Thompson's eligibility if Fitzgerald needs a reliever.

No. 12 Chris Robison-x, Oklahoma

Depth chart

Baker Mayfield, fifth-year senior

Kyler Murray, third-year sophomore

Austin Kendall, sophomore

Outlook: Former five-star Murray, who transferred from Texas A&M, will try to win the No. 2 job behind the Heisman Trophy contender Mayfield and be positioned to take over in 2018 with two seasons of eligibility left. Unless Robison changes the plans.

No. 13 Sean Clifford, Penn State

Depth chart

Trace McSorley, fourth-year junior

Tommy Stevens, third-year sophomore

Jake Zembiec, redshirt freshman

Outlook: It looks like McSorley will have the next two seasons covered. Clifford is considered the most talented quarterback recruit Penn State has landed since James Franklin took over in 2014. Keeping both Stevens and Zembiec around could be tough.

No. 14 N'Kosi Perry, Miami

Depth chart

Jack Allison, redshirt freshman

Malik Rosier, fourth-year junior

Evan Shirreffs, third-year junior

Outlook: Brad Kaaya's backups have not distinguished themselves so there is a solid chance his replacement will come from the younger players. Perry won't participate in spring practice, but another signee, three-star recruit Cade Weldon, will.

No. 15 Tristan Gebbia-x, Nebraska

Depth chart

Tanner Lee, fourth-year junior

Patrick O'Brien, redshirt freshman

Outlook: Lee, a transfer who started 19 games and threw 21 interceptions at Tulane, is the front-runner to start in 2017 - which probably says a lot about where O'Brien stands. The opportunity is there for Gebbia to get on the field early.

No. 16 Shawn Robinson-x, TCU

Depth chart

Kenny Hill, fifth-year senior

Grayson Muehlstein, fourth-year junior

Brennen Wooten, redshirt freshman

Outlook: Hill is a returning starter who struggles with consistency and neither backup is considered the quarterback of the future. If Hill's turnover-prone ways continue, Robinson has a chance to be the guy coach Gary Patterson turns to at some point.

No. 17 Kasim Hill, Maryland

Depth chart

Caleb Henderson, fourth-year junior

Tyrrell Pigrome, sophomore

Max Bortenschlager, sophomore

Outlook: Henderson is a transfer from North Carolina and the two sophomores both got some game action last year. But ideally they are just holding things down until Hill, the most highly touted of the bunch, is ready.

No. 18 Avery Davis, Notre Dame

Depth chart

Brandon Wimbush, junior

Ian Book, sophomore

Montgomey VanGorder, senior

Outlook: The early departure of Deshone Kizer and transfer of Malik Zaire means Notre Dame is banking on Wimbush for the next two seasons. Davis gets a couple of years to develop.

No. 22 Bailey Hockman-x, Florida State

Depth chart

Deondre Francois, third-year sophomore

J.J. Cosentino, fourth-year junior

Outlook: Hockman is an immediate contender to be No. 2. Considering Francois' bouts with inaccuracy and penchant of taking hard hits, coach Jimbo Fisher could really use the freshman to develop quickly.

No. 23 Braxton Burmeister, Oregon

Justin Herbert, sophomore

Terry Wilson, Jr. redshirt freshman

Travis Jonsen, third-year sophomore

Taylor Alie, fifth-year senior

Outlook: Herbert was a bright spot as a freshman in a bad season for the Ducks and the fact that he vaulted past the more experienced players on the rosters suggests that those guys are likely to end up as backups or transfers. Herbert will have to impress a new coaching staff in 2017. Burmeister, a late flip from Arizona, might need to be patient.

No. 24 Hendon Hooker-x, Virginia Tech

Josh Jackson, redshirt freshman

A.J. Bush, fourth-year junior

Jack Click, third-year sophomore

Outlook: The surprising early departure of Jerod Evans puts Jackson and Bush, a junior college transfer who began his career at Nebraska, at the top of the depth chart and gives Hooker a legit shot to compete for playing time.


Follow Ralph D. Russo at www.Twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP


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