College Basketball Expert Picks: Who Will Head Into the Holidays on a High Note?
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Last week in college basketball saw four of the top-five AP poll teams lose to unranked opponents, and yet another new No. 1 arising out of it. What will this week bring? Our writers' picks are in for 15 of this week's key matchups through the weekend.
Season-Long Standings
Pat Forde: 44-31
Molly Geary: 42-33
Max Meyer: 42-33
Michael Shapiro: 38-37
Jeremy Woo: 36-39
All times are Eastern.
Oklahoma at Creighton (Tues., 8:30 p.m., FS1)
Michael Shapiro picks Creighton: Creighton dispatched fellow Big 12 squad Texas Tech on Nov. 29, and the Blue Jays should notch a second victory against the conference as Oklahoma comes to town on Tuesday. Gregg McDermott’s squad presently looks on pace for a third tournament appearance in the last four seasons, and Creighton appears to have enough offensive firepower to outlast Lon Kruger’s Sooners. The Blue Jays rank No. 23 in the nation in made threes and No. 42 in shooting percentage. Sophomore guard Marcus Zegarowski is lethal from beyond the arc, currently averaging 19.4 points per game while shooting 65.3% from two and 40.8% from three. Expect Creighton to win a high-scoring affair in Omaha.
No. 21 Tennessee at Cincinnati (Wed., 7 p.m., ESPN2)
Michael Shapiro picks Tennessee: Rick Barnes’ squad lost a trio of draft picks from last year’s team, but the Volunteers haven’t lost their defensive prowess. Tennessee rankings No. 7 in defensive rating, grinding opposing offenses to a halt with junior center Yves Pons manning the middle. Barnes and Co. are well positioned to survive a rock fight against the Bearcats.
UNC at No. 2 Gonzaga (Wed., 9 p.m., ESPN2)
Max Meyer picks Gonzaga: North Carolina already had major issues on the offensive end, and the Cole Anthony-less Tar Heels looked even more lost in a loss to Wofford. Gonzaga’s only loss this season was to Michigan, and that was with a short turnaround in a tournament setting following an overtime war against Oregon. The Zags are damn good, they’re a really well-balanced team and the emergence of Joel Ayayi has really boosted their guard play. North Carolina won’t be able to keep up here in Spokane.
No. 7 Maryland at Seton Hall (Thurs., 7 p.m., FS1)
Pat Forde picks Maryland: The Terrapins' first taste of the true road life didn't go so well, resulting in an upset loss at Penn State. Now comes another roadie, but the Pirates are crippled by injuries—big man Sandro Mamukelashvili is out, and star guard Myles Powell might also miss the game with a concussion. (That said: Kevin Willard also acted like Powell was near death after an ankle sprain early in the season, and he played the next game.) Jalen Smith figures to be more than Seton Hall can handle inside without Mamukelashvili.
NC State at No. 12 Auburn (Thurs., 9 p.m., ESPN2)
Molly Geary picks Auburn: This is the toughest opponent the undefeated Tigers have faced yet (and first in the KenPom Top 50), and if this game were in Raleigh I'd probably pick the Wolfpack. Auburn has had a couple close calls this season, and NC State has shot the three ball well of late. But the Pack are coming off a half-court buzzer-beating win and now must deal with an athletic Tigers team that has the pace and firepower to match them offensively.
No. 1 Kansas at No. 18 Villanova (Sat., 12 p.m., FOX)
Michael Shapiro picks Kansas: The Jayhawks should be able to survive their first road test of the season at Villanova on Saturday. The Wildcats don’t have the interior personnel to contain Udoka Azubuike down low, and sophomore Devon Dotson won’t face much resistance against Collin Gillespie. Villanova has lost its first two games of the season against Top 25 teams. It will notch a third on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame (Sat., 12 p.m., ESPN)
Pat Forde picks Indiana: The Fighting Irish might have found something in routing UCLA Saturday—but the Bruins aren't very good, and that was a home game. The Hoosiers are better and the game will be on a neutral-at-best court in Indianapolis, and Notre Dame is 0-2 away from South Bend this season. Indiana has bounced back from a road drubbing at Wisconsin by beating Connecticut in New York and outlasting Nebraska at home. Trayce Jackson-Davis wasn't as heralded as some incoming freshman, but he's been as productive and valuable as any first-year player in the country.
Illinois at Missouri (Sat., 1 p.m., SECN)
Jeremy Woo picks Illinois: It does seem like Illinois is building some momentum after knocking off Michigan. Mizzou is still searching for a quality win. The Illini should be able to handle this rivalry tilt on the road.
Texas at Providence (Sat., 2 p.m., FOX)
Molly Geary picks Providence: This one is more of a gut feeling. The Friars are desperate to boost their résumé and get two final non-conference opportunities this week: vs. Florida in Brooklyn and at home against Texas. The Longhorns, with the No. 24 three-point rate in the country, look like a team that may live and die by the three this year, and in their last five games they've shot 25%, 29%, 44%, 31% and 56% from deep. Turnovers have been a bugaboo for Texas so far, and that's an area the Friars (12th in defensive TO rate) can take advantage of.
Purdue vs. Butler (Sat., 2:30 p.m., BTN)
Pat Forde picks Butler: The Boilermakers are struggling for an identity post-Carsen Edwards, having beaten Virginia by 29 at home but lost by 14 at Nebraska. The Bulldogs are suffering no such identity crisis at present, with five wins over Power 6 opponents and a one-point loss at Baylor. Purdue is coming into this game off consecutive road games (Nebraska and at Ohio Tuesday), whereas Butler will have the entire week to rest up and focus on a big-name school from just up I-65. Intangibles favor the Bulldogs.
Utah State vs. Florida* (Sat., 2:30 p.m., FS1)
Jeremy Woo picks Utah State: Neemias Queta’s return poses problems for the Gators, and if he can take Kerry Blackshear out of the game, the Aggies can steal this one.
*in Sunrise, Fla.
Ohio State vs. Kentucky (Sat., 5:15 p.m., CBS)
Jeremy Woo picks Ohio State: Kentucky is still figuring itself out. This will be a test for Ohio State at a neutral site, but the experience factor will split the difference.
No. 13 Dayton vs. Colorado (Sat., 6:30 p.m., CBSSN)
Max Meyer picks Dayton: I was very high on Colorado preseason, however the Buffaloes have been a total mess offensively. The Buffs, as of Monday afternoon, are 256th in effective field goal percentage and 297th in turnover rate. When you’re not a great shooting team and you’re decreasing your number of possessions by turning the ball over, it’s not going to be easy to compete against a top-tier team like Dayton. The entire nation knows about Obi Toppin now, but the secret sauce to the Flyers’ incredible offensive efficiency has been their two-PG lineup. Having Rodney Chatman and Jalen Crutcher both on the floor creates excellent ball movement, and this is already with a team that plays with five guys who can shoot from the outside whenever Toppin’s at the 5. Dayton has too much firepower and should comfortably win this game in Chicago (where it’ll have a big crowd advantage given its fans travel will anywhere, so Chicago should be a breeze).
Cincinnati vs. Iowa (Sat., 9 p.m., BTN)
Molly Geary picks Iowa: The Hawkeyes' offense is firing on all cylinders of late; in fact, it ranks No. 1 in KenPom's offensive efficiency ranking. Even though Jordan Bohannon has played his last game of the season, it's hard to see the Bearcats having enough firepower to match—and then there's the matter of guarding Luka Garza, who is playing at an All-American level. The Hawkeyes' defense is still a work in progress, but it's taken at least 80 points to beat them in each of their three losses.
LSU vs. USC* (Sat., 9 p.m., FS1)
Max Meyer picks USC: There may not be a more maddening team in the country than USC in terms of consistency, but I think you’ll see the talented Trojans fully get up for this spot, since it’s at Staples Center against a strong opponent in LSU. The Tigers have the second-highest two-point shooting percentage (61.9%) in the country, only behind Dayton. While they don’t have great size (just one player in their regular rotation is above 6’6”), this is a team that excels at getting to the rim, whether it’s through drives or offensive rebounds. The problem is, USC’s interior defense, led by freshman sensation Onyeka Okongwu, has been outstanding as well, ranking 27th in the country in that department. And with the 6’9” Okongwu, 6’10” Isaiah Mobley and 6’11” Nick Rakocevic, the Trojans will have a considerable size advantage. Give me USC in an upset here.
*at Staples Center in LA
