Bubble Watch: Who Can Ride a Late Surge All the Way to the Big Dance?

Texas, UCLA and Providence are among the teams threatening to steal an NCAA bid as Selection Sunday nears. Here's our full look at the bubble.
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With conference tournaments starting this week, more teams achieved “lock status” in our latest watch, but Jim and I still tried to remain conservative overall. Teams like Marquette, West Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois are as close to lock status as a team can get, but if any of them lose out there would be some question as to their inclusion in the field of 68.

You’ll notice a new team in the Big 12 below, the Texas Longhorns. Shaka Smart has brought his team back from the dead with two huge wins against West Virginia and at Texas Tech. The Longhorns now look to close out the regular season strong against the Oklahoma schools and prove they are worthy of dancing. –KM

Locks: 19
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
10
Sweating Bullets: 35

ACC

Locks: Duke, Louisville, Florida State
Comfortable, but not Relaxing:
Virginia
Sweating Bullets:
NC State, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Clemson

Virginia (21-7, NET: 50, SOS: 79, Q1: 4-3, Q2: 7-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

Virginia has barreled its way up the S-curve like Donkey Kong in Super Smash Bros., rattling off six straight ACC wins including a home victory over Duke on Saturday. The 'Hoos now sit just one game out of first place in the ACC and have a legitimate opportunity to once again split the regular season title if they can find a way to defeat Louisville on the last game of the year. As always, defense has led the UVA revival. –KM

NC State (18-12, NET: 57, SOS: 55, Q1: 4-5, Q2: 5-4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 3)

NC State is as bubbly as they come despite a respectable nine wins against Quad 1/Quad 2 competition. The Wolkpack fell to UNC last week and then missed a golden opportunity at Cameron Indoor to secure their inclusion in the bracket. At 9-10 in conference play, NC State’s home tilt on Friday against Wake Forest has become a must-win. If it were to lose, it’s likely its NCAA tourney hopes would be dashed barring a heroic run in the ACC tournament. –KM

Notre Dame (18-11, NET: 58, SOS: 124, Q1: 2-6, Q2: 1-4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

By the slimmest of margins, Notre Dame remains in our Bubble Watch this week. Jim and I considered booting the Irish and their paltry three quality wins, but a NET ranking just one spot behind NC State and an opportunity to finish 11-9 in ACC play and pick up a win against FSU has them hanging on. One more loss and it’s bye Felicia. –KM

Syracuse (16-13, NET: 71, SOS: 52, Q1: 2-7, Q2: 3-4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

Like the Irish, Syracuse’s inclusion in this iteration of the watch is purely conservative at this point. The Orange have a low quantity of quality wins, a sky-high NET and two bad losses on their résumé. With remaining games against Boston College and Miami, Syracuse likely finishes 11-9 in conference play, but those victories won’t do much to bolster an ugly résumé. –KM

Clemson (15-13, NET: 73, SOS: 40, Q1:3-6, Q2: 5-5, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

Clemson makes its first appearance in the Bubble Watch after taking down Florida State on Friday, notching a crucial Q1 win and rising up to 9-9 in the ACC standings. The Tigers have a better résumé than both the Irish and the Orange from a quality wins and SOS perspective, but a 73 NET ranking and near-.500 record likely holds them out of the Dance. They can at least make things interesting with two more ACC wins to close out the year and a run in the conference tournament. –KM

texas-basketball-ncaa-tournament-bubble-odds

Big 12

Locks: Baylor, Kansas
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
West Virginia
Sweating Bullets:
Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas

Hello, Lone Star State! Texas has clawed its way into the picture, and even TCU has drifted into the fringes of the discussion with a win over Baylor. We’re only adding the Longhorns for now, though; the Horned Frogs’ NET of 91 is simply too unsightly at this stage.

West Virginia (19-10, NET: 21, SOS: 2, Q1: 5-7, Q2: 5-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

We fully expected to have locked up West Virginia by now, and honestly, there’s only a tiny chance the Mountaineers actually come up empty on Selection Sunday. Still, they’ve lost six of seven, and going 7-11 in the Big 12 would probably turn up the noses of a few committee members, despite elite computer numbers. If WVU cannot beat the Tyrese Haliburton-less Cyclones tonight, the possibility of ending the year by losing nine of 10 is terrifyingly realistic, and at that point, the committee could make a bold decision. –JR

Texas Tech (18-12, NET: 23, SOS: 70, Q1: 3-9, Q2: 4-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

The Red Raiders’ résumé is significantly weaker than its NET ranking would make it seem, as the 7-12 Q1/Q2 record is unsightly. Chris Beard’s crew narrowly missed a golden opportunity at what might have been a bid-clinching win at Baylor on Monday night. If there was ever a way to lock things up, though, it is a Saturday home date against the No. 1 team in the land, Kansas. Get it done in Lubbock, and Texas Tech should be fine. –JR

Oklahoma (18-11, NET: 40, SOS: 31, Q1: 5-9, Q2: 5-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

The Sooners filled in the relatively vacant top of their résumé this week, handling Texas Tech at home and West Virginia in Morgantown. The Sooners now look to be in very good (not quite great) shape, and a manageable final week (versus Texas, at TCU) offers the possibility of a 2-0 finish, reaching the 20-win plateau, and shooting up toward lock status. –JR

Texas (18-11, NET: 59, SOS: 39, Q1: 4-7, Q2: 2-4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

Shaka and the Longhorns stormed back into bubble territory with a huge two-fer week, knocking off West Virginia at home and winning at Texas Tech. Andrew Jones has re-emerged into a star (averaging 19.3 ppg in his last four), and the Luke Yaklich-led defense has made its presence felt (held four straight opponents below 60 points). Still, the 6-11 Q1/Q2 record is a blemish, so the Longhorns can’t rest on their laurels against the Oklahoma schools this week. –JR

Big East

Locks: Creighton, Seton Hall, Villanova, Butler
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
Marquette
Sweating Bullets: Xavier, Providence, Georgetown

Marquette (18-10, NET: 25, SOS: 3, Q1: 5-9, Q2: 6-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

As we laid out in the opener, Marquette is all but a certainty to make the NCAA tournament. A gorgeous NET ranking and SOS bolsters a résumé with a solid number of quality wins and no blemishes. However, if the Eagles drop the next two games to DePaul and St. John’s, things at least get somewhat interesting. Marquette would stand 18-12 with an 8-10 Big East record and two more Q1/Q2 losses. Add in a first round exit in the Big East tournament and a handful of bid stealers, and Steve Wojciechowski's crew may start to sweat. –KM

Xavier (19-10, NET: 43, SOS: 15, Q1: 3-9, Q2: 7-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

Xavier took care of business this past week, defeating DePaul and Georgetown in what were essentially must-win scenarios. The Musketeers clawed themselves back to .500 in the conference and now sit with a sterling 7-1 mark against Q2 competition. That 3-9 record against Q1 teams is enough to give pause to the X-Men’s current résumé, but Travis Steele and Co. should at least feel somewhat good about their chances. Unfortunately, Xavier’s last two regular-season games are at Providence and versus Butler at home, two very losable contests that would throw a wrench in Xavier’s tourney plans. –KM

Providence (17-12, NET: 44, SOS: 8, Q1: 7-8, Q2: 4-0, Q3+Q4 Losses: 4)

There are no words for Providence’s recent revival. The Friars just completed a historic February by becoming the fifth team in NCAA history to beat five ranked opponents in a single calendar month. If this team would have simply beaten one or two of Northwestern, Penn, Long Beach State and Charleston in the non-conference, we’d be talking about the Friars as a top-6 seed. Instead they remain squarely on the bubble, but very few teams in the country can touch their Q1 win count. –KM

Georgetown (15-14, NET: 60, SOS: 20, Q1: 4-10, Q2: 4-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

Georgetown essentially played its way out of the field this past week, dropping two more contests to bring its current losing skid to four. At just 5-11 in the Big East, the Hoyas’ tourney hopes are bleak at best, but they still have dates with Creighton and Villanova to score two more massive wins. A healthy Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven would certainly help matters. –KM

Big Ten

Locks: Maryland, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois
Sweating Bullets:
Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana

Sparty finally ascends to lockdom after winning at Maryland, and Ohio State joins the Spartans with a 2-0 week. At this point, with only three potential losses remaining on the schedule, even a 20-12 (11-9) Iowa team is not missing the NCAA tournament, so the Hawkeyes lock in, as well; we’ll wait for Michigan to get one more victory before the Wolverines make it a six-pack of locks. Of course, Wisconsin might beat them to that level.

Michigan (18-11, NET: 24, SOS: 49, Q1: 7-10, Q2: 4-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

Michigan remains a win away from lock status for us after losing to Wisconsin and at Ohio State this week; simply avoid a bad loss to Nebraska on Thursday, and the Wolverines should be golden. –JR

Wisconsin (19-10, NET: 30, SOS: 23, Q1: 8-8, Q2: 4-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

We’re going highly conservative by not locking the Badgers, because eight Q1 wins and a 12-9 Q1/Q2 record is borderline elite stuff. An 0-3 finish *probably* would not put Wisconsin at risk, but just beat Northwestern at home on Wednesday to make sure, okay? –JR

Illinois (19-9, NET: 36, SOS: 91, Q1: 5-7, Q2: 4-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

The Illini step up a rung after (barely) taking care of business against Indiana and at Northwestern. A tournament bid feels inevitable, and the stellar play of Ayo Dosunmu since returning from his frightening knee injury (20.0 ppg on 53.4% shooting from the field) gives rise to optimism that the Illini can actually do something with that opportunity, as well. This week (at Ohio State, versus Iowa) is mostly an opportunity to jump up the S-curve. - JR

Rutgers (17-11, NET: 34, SOS: 43, Q1: 3-9, Q2: 4-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

Road Rutgers went 0-2 this week, with a heartbreaker at Penn State spoiling any chance of moving up into more comfortable territory. Instead, the Scarlet Knights continue to slide the wrong way down the S-Curve, but Tuesday's clash with Maryland at the RAC provides the ultimate Home Rutgers opportunity to stamp another signature win across the top of the résumé. Winning at Purdue in the finale sure would help, too, as Rutgers' road record is now a gruesome 1-9. –JR

Purdue (15-14, NET: 35, SOS: 47, Q1: 4-11, Q2: 4-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

The Boilermakers sit just above the .500 barrier following a win over Indiana last Thursday, and they face the usual intimidating two-game week to close out the regular season (at Iowa, versus Rutgers). Go 0-2 and Purdue is essentially eliminated; 2-0 might vault the Boilers into the field. A simple 1-1 would leave them with quite a bit of work to do in the Big Ten tournament (finishing two games over .500 should be the ultimate goal). –JR

Minnesota (13-15, NET: 46, SOS: 35, Q1: 5-12, Q2: 2-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

Minnesota probably does not belong here at two games under .500. Win at Indiana and against Nebraska this week, get to 15-15 for the regular season, and win two or more in the Big Ten tournament—that’s the only way. –JR

Indiana (18-11, NET: 54, SOS: 44, Q1: 6-9, Q2: 2-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

Despite residing below Purdue and Minnesota in the NET, Indiana is far more comfortable in its NCAA tournament hopes, thanks to a more acceptable overall record and an extra Q1 win (or two). The Hoosiers did lose two road games this week, but with no bad losses to speak of, IU remains in solid shape. This week brings the Gophers and title-contending Wisconsin to Assembly Hall, and getting at least one of those games would really help avoid an ugly 8-12 Big Ten record. –JR

UCLA basketball NCAA tournament 2020

Pac-12

Locks: Colorado, Oregon
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
Arizona
Sweating Bullets:
Stanford, USC, Arizona State, UCLA

Arizona (19-10, NET: 10, SOS: 5, Q1: 3-7, Q2: 6-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

The Wildcats continue to have a totally confounding profile, as their NET makes a lot of promises that their win/loss ledger cannot keep. Josh Green missed both games in LA, but getting swept is still an eyebrow-raiser, and Arizona is now looking at a “worst case” of 19-13 (9-9) while adding at least one more Q3 loss (to Washington State). The Wildcats should be fine at home, and missing the field probably isn’t realistic, but I won’t assume anything with this group right now. –JR

Stanford (20-9, NET: 28, SOS: 97, Q1: 4-5, Q2: 3-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

Sunday’s home win over Colorado could prove pivotal for the Cardinal, adding another Q1 win to a body of work that is slowly gaining the meat necessary to warrant a bid. Some key quadrant gymnastics to monitor: the win at UCLA continues to improve, and it will likely settle in Q1 if the Bruins can crack the top 75 (76th currently). Additionally, Stanford’s lone Q3 loss (at California) is on the precipice of becoming a more harmless Q2 defeat; Cal’s NET, currently 138th, just needs to get inside the top 135. –JR

USC (21-9, NET: 39, SOS: 62, Q1: 4-7, Q2: 6-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

The Trojans got two key wins over the Arizona schools this week, and while nothing is resolved in the case of The NCAA Selection Committee v. Andy Enfield, it’s hard to imagine that two losses to end the year (to UCLA in the regular season finale, quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament) would be harmful enough to push the Trojans out of the field. One more win should settle this case in Enfield’s favor. –JR

Arizona State (19-10, NET: 49, SOS: 12, Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

Like Arizona, the Sun Devils got swept in the Bay Area, coming back down to Earth following a seven-game winning streak. Unlike its rival, though, ASU was not pushing for a much higher seed, so it's not harmful in the grand scheme; both games will likely end up as Q1 losses. As it stands, the Sun Devils have accumulated enough solid wins in the Pac-12 (and zero bad losses) to feel a tier above the truly bubbly squads, and hosting the Washington schools gives them a chance to make this a done deal. –JR

UCLA (18-11, NET: 76, SOS: 59, Q1: 6-6, Q2: 3-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

The Bruins now sit atop the Pac-12 by a half-game after sweeping the Arizona schools (tip of the cap to Jaime Jaquez and his Thursday night buzzer-beater), and as of now, the Bruins are the auto-bid in our Bracket Watch. Should the Bruins need an at-large, it’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out the Pac-12 regular season champion, especially in an improved year for the league. Saturday’s rivalry battle at USC looms large, but UCLA is getting close to securing a shocking invitation to the Big Dance. –JR

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Auburn, LSU
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
None
Sweating Bullets:
Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Tennessee, South Carolina

Florida (18-11, NET: 33, SOS: 34, Q1: 4-8, Q2: 4-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

The Gators picked up a massive win against LSU this past week (a team desperately trying to prove our lock status dubbing a foolish mistake), but gave that goodwill all back by losing on the road to Tennessee. Florida probably gets into the Dance with one more win to close out the year, but is anybody in the country confident in the Gators beating Georgia in Athens or Kentucky at home? –KM

Alabama (16-13, NET: 42, SOS: 17, Q1: 1-7, Q2: 7-4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

Alabama has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country this season, per KenPom, losing close games and being the victim of a slew of injuries. Unfortunately, the committee doesn’t care about luck—they care about your résumé, and Alabama’s is ugly as sin. With just one Q1 win and only Vanderbilt and Missouri remaining on the schedule, the Tide will need to make magic in the SEC tournament to be included in the field of 68. –KM

Arkansas (18-12, NET: 47, SOS: 26, Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-5, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

Like its alliterative state neighbor, Arkansas’ tournament goose—or hog, I guess—is all but cooked. The Razorbacks needed to beat Georgia on Saturday to get fully back into the tourney picture, but they failed and now sit at 6-10 in the SEC. One more loss will officially kill Arkansas’ chances after such a promising start to the year. –KM

Mississippi State (19-10, NET: 52, SOS: 58, Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

Some bracketologists out there already have the Bulldogs on the right side of the bubble, but a lack of quality wins has us skeptical. Closing the season out with two more SEC wins to bring their conference record to 12-6 is the first step toward the bracket, but even then Mississippi State may need to prove itself in the SEC tournament. –KM

South Carolina (17-12, NET: 65, SOS: 63, Q1: 4-7, Q2: 3-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

The Gamecocks have repeated their strange SEC success from last year despite struggling in the non-conference slate of the season. At 9-7 in league play, USC could conceivably finish in the top four of the SEC standings. A win over Mississippi State Tuesday would give the Gamecocks their eighth quality win, which would be enough for the committee to consider their inclusion should they take care of business against Vanderbilt on March 7. –KM

Tennessee (16-13, NET: 69, SOS: 32, Q1: 1-9, Q2: 6-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

This résumé is a worse version of Alabama’s, so take that paragraph and add like 10x the unlikelihood that the Vols see their third straight NCAA tournament. - KM

American

Locks: None
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
Houston
Sweating Bullets:
Wichita State, Cincinnati, Memphis

Houston (22-7, NET: 19, SOS: 78, Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

The Cougars ran Cincinnati out down the stretch on Sunday, maintaining pace with Tulsa (?!) atop the American heading into the season’s final week. With games at UConn and home to Memphis remaining, only an AAC quarterfinal lurks as a potential bad loss, meaning Houston is almost certainly good to go. One more win likely locks things up. –JR

Wichita State (22-7, NET: 45, SOS: 80, Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 0)

At one point during its victory at SMU, Wichita held a 0.2% chance to win that game—and, in turn, to earn an at-large. Okay, a Q2 loss to the Mustangs would not have doomed the Shockers, but with such shaky top-shelf wins (at UConn and at Oklahoma State could potentially fall out of Q1 by Selection Sunday), Wichita needs to inflate its record in any way possible. –JR

Cincinnati (18-10, NET: 53, SOS: 9, Q1: 2-6, Q2: 6-0, Q3+Q4 Losses: 4)

The Bearcats got a much-needed week off heading into a huge road tilt at Houston this past weekend, but the host Cougars were also well-rested and ended up being too much for Cincinnati. The Bearcats still have just two Q1 wins to outweigh four Q3 losses, and they may need more magic at the AAC tournament to truly feel like an at-large team come Selection Sunday. A tricky road spot at South Florida on short rest looms Tuesday as a potential landmine. –JR

Memphis (20-9, NET: 62, SOS: 90, Q1: 2-4, Q2: 5-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 3)

Lose at SMU, win at Tulane in overtime. The Tigers aren’t exactly beating down the door to the NCAA tournament field, and this profile simply lacks the heft to get near the cut-line. It’s essentially a slightly worse version of Cincinnati’s résumé, which in itself may not be good enough. Fortunately, this week offers two big chances to move the needle (hosting Wichita and at Houston). Earn your way in, Penny. –JR

Others

Locks: San Diego State, Gonzaga, Dayton, BYU
Comfortable, but Not Relaxing:
Saint Mary’s
Sweating Bullets: Rhode Island, Northern Iowa, Utah State, ETSU, Richmond, St. Louis, Furman, UNC Greensboro

VCU slides out of the picture after losing at UMass, but another A-10 team has crept back into the picture. The Billikens of Saint Louis took care of Rhode Island on the road, and the A-10 has a shaky path to multiple bids at this point. Also, with only one possible loss remaining, Saint Mary’s likely cannot fall far enough to miss the field, but we won’t bestow lock status quite yet.

Saint Mary’s (23-7, NET: 31, SOS: 57, Q1: 3-4, Q2: 4-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

The Gaels need to simply win the games they’re supposed to win in the WCC tournament in order to make the Big Dance. A loss to Pepperdine (or Santa Clara / Portland) in the quarterfinals would put Saint Mary’s inclusion in the field in jeopardy. I still think they get there with a loss, but it won’t be comfortable. A win against BYU in the semis shuts up all the doubters. –KM

Northern Iowa (23-5, NET: 37, SOS: 118, Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

The committee set precedence last year for a good mid-major making the NCAA tournament as an at-large despite a small quantity of quality wins. That is good news for the Panthers, who are leaning heavily on their impressive road victory at Colorado to compensate for their other résumé shortfalls. A loss before the finals in the Missouri Valley tournament likely puts UNI out of the field, but otherwise I like their chances. –KM

Utah State (21-8, NET: 38, SOS: 119, Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

Not a good time to take a Q3 loss, Aggies. Utah State could not escape The Pit with a victory, and adding a second Q3 blemish further dents a profile that was already on shaky ground. The Aggies’ two big wins—neutral victories over SEC foes LSU and Florida—are solid atop the ledger, but it will be hard to measurably improve this résumé at the MWC tournament without beating San Diego State in the championship game, at which point this all becomes moot. That should be the goal; anything less will make for an extremely nervous week of waiting in Logan. –JR

ETSU (24-4, NET: 40, SOS: 130, Q1: 1-2, Q2: 2-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

Similar to UNI above, ETSU will probably have to make the SoCon finals to be included as an at-large in the field of 68. Luckily, the Bucs won’t have to go through Furman or UNC Greensboro to reach the conference championship. In a scenario where both UNI and ETSU lose their conference tournaments, the Panthers would likely get the nod over the Bucs, so the margin for error is razor thin. –KM

Richmond (22-7, NET: 48, SOS: 93, Q1: 3-4, Q2: 1-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

Richmond needs to add wins to its Q1/Q2 tally, and Davidson (74th in the NET) resides just inside Q2 right now. Strangely, the Spiders' best outcome would likely be an overtime win, as they would be greatly aided by Davidson remaining inside the NET’s top 75; winning convincingly might expel the Wildcats outside the necessary range. The road game at Duquesne is Q2 all the way, though, so a 3-2 Q2 record is attainable this week. –JR

Rhode Island (20-8, NET: 51, SOS: 72, Q1: 1-5, Q2: 6-2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1)

The Rams are about as leveraged on a single game as a team can be this late in the season. Beat Dayton on Wednesday night, and Rhode Island has a signature win atop its ledger to pair with several decent complementary victories. Lose, and a 1-6 Q1 record looks quite shaky, as the only win in that realm is a road triumph at scuffling VCU. Several Rams (Jeff Dowtin, Cyril Langevine, Jacob Toppin) have been banged up lately, but they’ll all need to be at the peak of their powers to get the signature win Rhode Island so desperately needs. –JR

Saint Louis (20-8, NET: 56, SOS: 86, Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)

The Bills are back on the fringes of the at-large picture after winning at URI, but they likely cannot get there without a win over Dayton in Brooklyn. One step at a time, though; first, avoid taking a Q3 loss this week at George Mason and against St. Bonaventure.  –JR

Furman (22-6, NET: 67, SOS: 157, Q1: 0-3, Q2: 2-1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2)
UNC Greensboro (21-8, NET: 78, SOS: 146, Q1: 2-2, Q2: 1-3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 3)

Only one of these teams has any chance at at-large consideration, with the looming SoCon semifinal serving as a de facto elimination game. Even with that, neither profile is likely to receive an at-large bid after losing to ETSU in the final unless the Selection Committee is feeling particularly benevolent towards the SoCon. –JR