Bracket Watch: Who Helped (or Hurt) Their Tournament Case Over the Weekend?

The march toward March continues! With another loaded weekend of college basketball in the books, SPORTS ILLUSTRATED dives into how the men's NCAA tournament field of 68 has changed in recent days and which teams did the most to help themselves this past weekend.

On the Bubble:

Movement with autobids this weekend impacted exactly where the cut line is—namely with Utah State sneaking in as the new projected autobid for the Mountain West over more qualified at-large candidates San Diego State and Boise State. Drake moves onto the bubble after seeing its undefeated streak end this past weekend against Valparaiso and will be a fascinating test case for the committee thanks to its lack of quality wins. The Bulldogs need a split against Loyola Chicago this weekend or will likely need to win the Missouri Valley tournament. On the wrong side of things now is Maryland, who I left out based on the principle that I don’t believe the committee will put in a team that is under .500. Get over .500, and the Terps will be in thanks to their quality wins. 

Last Four Byes:

Arkansas
Boise State
Indiana
Saint Louis

Last Four In:

LSU
Drake
Oregon
Stanford

First Four Out:

Maryland
Colorado State
St. John's
Richmond

Next Four Out:

VCU
Penn State
Georgia Tech
Western Kentucky

Stan Szeto/USA TODAY Sports

*Indicates the team is projected to win its conference's automatic bid

Gonzaga Region:

No. 1 Gonzaga* vs. No. 16 Eastern Washington*/NC A&T*
No. 8 Loyola Chicago* vs. No. 9 Xavier
No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Stanford/LSU
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Liberty*
No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 3 Houston* vs. No. 14 Abilene Christian*
No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Boise State
No. 2 Virginia vs. No. 15 Cleveland State

Virginia jumps back onto the No. 2 seed line after entering the weekend as a No. 3 thanks to losses around them. The NET is kind to the Cavs despite their relative lack of quality wins, and the committee has traditionally rewarded Power 5 conference champions with good seeding. Kansas desperately needed a win to get back on track and got one Monday against Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks are still just 7–7 vs. Quad 1 and Quad 2, but now they get a chance to run up some wins with three straight against Iowa State and Kansas State. A first-round matchup between them and Indiana would certainly bring plenty of television attention. 

Baylor Region:

No. 1 Baylor* vs. No. 16 South Dakota*/Prairie View A&M*
No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Clemson
No. 5 USC* vs. No. 12 Utah State*
No. 4 Missouri vs. No. 13 UC Santa Barbara*
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Oregon/Drake
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Wofford*
No. 7 Virginia Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Texas State

One of the biggest risers of the weekend was USC, which quietly has put together an excellent season. The Trojans blew out an undermanned UCLA team Saturday to take control of first place in the Pac-12 and currently sits at No. 16 nationally in the NET rankings. If Andy Enfield’s team can avoid a letdown against a weaker Pac-12 foe, a top-four seed seems possible. Down the seed list, Arkansas isn’t quite safe yet but has slowly risen by keeping a clean résumé. With three of their next four on the road, the Razorbacks can move themselves into lock status or confirm they’ll be teetering on the cut line depending on how they fare. 

Michigan Region:

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 UMBC*
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Seton Hall
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Toledo*
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Belmont*
No. 6 UCLA vs. No. 11 St. Bonaventure*
No. 3 Iowa vs. No. 14 Navy*
No. 7 Rutgers vs. No. 10 UConn
No. 2 Alabama* vs. No. 15 Northeastern*

Three of the top four seeds in this region are from the Big Ten. Two of those teams dropped a seed line since our last update, with Iowa finally dropping off the No. 2 line after its fourth loss in five games and Wisconsin falling another spot after a 2–3 stretch. Virtually no individual loss can hurt you in the Big Ten given the strength of the league, but eventually they add up and can knock a team down. Also worth tracking is the Atlantic 10’s search for two bids: St. Bonaventure stays in as an autobid despite its loss at Saint Louis Saturday, but it would be dangerously close to the cut line if it can't secure it.

Ohio State Region:

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 16 Bryant*
No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 9 San Diego State
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 12 UAB*
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Winthrop*
No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 Saint Louis
No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Siena*
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 North Carolina
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Grand Canyon*

Ohio State continues to build one of the most impressive résumés in the country, adding another Quad 1 win Monday on the road at Maryland. The Buckeyes have nine Q1 wins now, two more than any other team in the country. They nearly overtook Michigan for the No. 3 overall seed in the field. Closer to the bubble, UNC jumped onto the No. 10 line after its road win at Duke. A huge game looms Saturday at Virginia.

Sweeney's full March Madness projection, as of Feb. 9: