Eight Men’s College Hoops Trends to Watch Ahead of March Madness
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college basketball (miracle comebacks sold separately in Iowa City):
Could you feel it Saturday? That was March arriving early. Buzzer beaters, big upsets, thick tension … the best month of the season stole the tip, and The Minutes is perfectly fine with that. If you can ignore the embarrassment at Alabama for a few minutes, the rest of the sport is roaring into March like a lion.
Some things are new and different—Pittsburgh is leading the Atlantic Coast Conference, Youngstown State has won its first division league championship (in the Horizon), Southern Mississippi has won its first outright league title in 22 years (Sun Belt). But a lot of other things feel familiar. Let’s look at the habitual trends happening right on schedule as the regular season reaches its final stage.
Harris leads a Jayhawks squad angling for a repeat title.
William Purnell/USA TODAY Sports
It’s about that time …
… For Kansas (1) to come alive. The Jayhawks have won six straight Big 12 games, something no one else has accomplished this season in the toughest league in the country. Their 55–26 smashing of Baylor in the second half Feb. 18 gets The Minutes’ vote for the most impressive 20 minutes any team has played this season. Point guard Dajuan Harris has gotten his game back on track, averaging 12.5 points, 6.7 assists and 2.8 steals during the winning streak.
Let’s wait and see the tourney draw March 12, but Kansas has the players, coach and winning culture to repeat as national champions. No one has gone back-to-back since Florida in 2006–07.
… For Purdue (2) to inject March doubt. On Feb. 1, the Boilermakers were 22–1 and the consensus No. 1 overall seed. Now they’re 24–5, were swept by Indiana, and are reminding the world of the high-achieving program that always experiences NCAA tournament heartburn. Purdue is a bit loose with the ball, a bit vulnerable defensively off the dribble, and a lot too reliant on the largest free-standing structure in West Lafayette, center Zach Edey.
Purdue’s former vice grip on a No. 1 seed is less firm now. Alabama, Kansas and Houston might all be ahead of the Boilers in the pecking order, with UCLA right behind. If they lock up the Big Ten regular-season title this week, that might be enough to keep them on the top seed line. Regardless, a Purdue fan base still traumatized by losses against Saint Peter’s, North Texas and Little Rock will take some familiar anxiety into March Madness.
… For North Carolina (3) to pull out a bid. The Tar Heels finally locked up a big victory Saturday, beating Virginia behind an uncharacteristically hot shooting night from three-point range. (They were 10 of 22, with Pete Nance going 4-for-4 after making one of his previous 18.) UNC still has some ground to cover to get onto the right side of the bubble, but you may recall Hubert Davis’s team was not a sure thing last year going into a daunting season finale against Duke. That’s when Carolina hit the jets and never stopped, advancing all the way to the national championship game. Does this team have that run in it? Seems improbable, but it is largely the same cast of players. Before getting to Duke in the Dean Dome on Saturday, UNC has to win at Florida State on Monday, or the Virginia victory is canceled out.
… For Auburn (4) to become dysfunctional. Much like last year, the Tigers have misplaced their mojo late in the season. After a 16–3 start, they have lost seven of their last 10, haven’t won a road game since Jan. 21 and haven’t beaten an NCAA tournament team away from home since Northwestern on a neutral floor the day before Thanksgiving. Excessive fouling and bad three-point shooting are hurting Auburn, which remains offensively dependent upon the mercurial Wendell Green. In Auburn’s three wins in its last 10 games, he has shot 45% from two-point range, shot 43% from three and had a 4.8-to-1 assist/turnover ratio. In seven losses, Green is shooting 33% from two, shooting 26% from three and had a 1.3-to-1 assist/turnover ratio.
With games remaining against Alabama and Tennessee, Auburn could be 19–12, 9–9 in the SEC and 2–10 in Quad 1 games, which could produce some late-onset bubble stress.
… For Kentucky (5) to piece it together. Over the past two weeks, the Wildcats have cut their Ken Pomeroy rating in half, from No. 44 to 22. As has happened before under coach John Calipari, Kentucky got to the brink of falling apart before rallying. It has had a pair of very impressive home wins against Tennessee and Auburn and a pair of good-enough road wins over Mississippi State and Florida. With Jacob Toppin gaining consistency, the Cats have four reliable offensive weapons (Oscar Tshiebwe, Cason Wallace, Antonio Reeves and Toppin). The defense has improved. The rebounding is powerful. With Saint Peter’s nowhere on the horizon, could they make a run?
… For Virginia (6) to endure a late-February fade. This is the third straight season the back half of February has been a problem for the Cavaliers. From Feb. 14 to 28, their record from 2021 to ’23 is 3–8. Currently, the Hoos are on a two-game losing streak after being upset at Boston College and handled at North Carolina. Before that were shaky wins over ACC bottom dwellers Louisville and Notre Dame. Virginia’s KenPom rating stands at a season-low No. 38. In terms of talent acquisition, Tony Bennett didn’t capitalize on that ’19 national championship.
… For Villanova (7) to loom as a Big East threat. The transition from Jay Wright to Kyle Neptune was not the smoothest. For months, this looked like the first time in a decade the Wildcats would not factor into either the league regular-season race or tournament outcome. They’ll finish no better than fifth in the regular season, but have improved enough to be an x-factor in Madison Square Garden next week. Villanova (15–14) has won five of its last six, including beating Xavier and Creighton last week—and it won those games with No. 2 scorer Caleb Daniels contributing a total of only 10 points. Having Justin Moore back for the last month, after an Achilles injury in the 2022 NCAA tournament regional final, has certainly helped. Nobody will want to face the Wildcats next week in NYC.
Iowa head coach McCaffery (center) has been berating officials of late.
Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen/USA TODAY NETWORK
… For Fran McCaffery (8) to act like a jerk. The Iowa coach is on his late-season grind, which largely consists of fuming and snarling his way through games. McCaffery was ejected Feb. 19, while his team was being trucked at Northwestern, and it was only through officiating benevolence he wasn’t tossed again Saturday in a game against Michigan State.
After already receiving one technical foul, McCaffery spent part of a timeout late in the game away from the team huddle, silently staring down referee Kelly Pfeifer, hands on hips. He took a couple of steps toward Pfeifer, who then did the same. For a moment it looked like they might keep advancing into an MMA weigh-in staredown, nose to nose, but it didn’t happen. McCaffery deserved a second T for showing up Pfeifer but was spared. What ensued was one of the best bursts of basketball in McCaffery’s 13-year tenure—and his sons were vital components of a stunning comeback.
Trailing the Spartans by 10 points with 40 seconds left, Iowa (9) made five three-point shots to improbably send the game into overtime. That’s hard to do against anyone, much less a Tom Izzo (10) team, but the Spartans were weirdly lackadaisical about getting out on shooters during that stretch. Iowa went on to win in overtime, ending a two-game losing streak. We’ll see whether this stirring victory has legs for the Hawkeyes heading into March, and whether it improves the demeanor of their surly coach.
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The league that is a tub of live bait
The standings in the Big Ten (11) are a mess with a week to play in the regular season. There is Purdue (13–5) at the top; there are Minnesota (1–16) and Ohio State (4–14) at the bottom; and there is a teeming mass of humanity squished in between.
Four teams are 11–7: Maryland, Northwestern, Indiana and Michigan. Three teams are 10–8: Rutgers, Illinois and Iowa. Three are 8–10: Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska. And then there is Michigan State at 9–8, who will play one less game this season after the game against Minnesota was officially cancelled following the Feb. 13 mass shooting on Michigan State’s campus. Losing what theoretically would have been a win over Minnesota likely will hurt the Spartans’ Big Ten tourney seeding, but it should mean one less tiebreaker for the league office to implement in trying to sort out this logjam.
The Big Ten has had a pretty wide distribution of tourney champions over the past decade, with six different winners: Michigan State three times; Michigan twice; Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State once. After the free-for-all race to the finish, don’t be surprised by anything that happens in Chicago next week.
Long live the in-state rivalry
The Minutes loves a good rivalry upset, and there were three installments of in-state grudge matches Saturday in which the road underdog won. Two of them ended in jaw-dropping fashion and may affect who wins a conference championship, and the third produced a season sweep. The list:
Arizona State–Arizona (12).
The situation: The visiting Sun Devils were on the outskirts of the bubble and trying to end a five-game losing streak against the boys from Tucson. The host Wildcats were trying to maintain contact with UCLA in the Pac-12 race and keep alive an outside shot at a No. 1 NCAA seed.
The line: Arizona was favored by 13.
The late-game scenario: Arizona State was down 10 with 6:30 to play, and trailed by a point with 2.9 seconds left when 7-footer Oumar Ballo went to the line for the Wildcats. He made one of two, opening the door a sliver for an ASU miracle.
The hero: Desmond Cambridge took the inbounds pass, took one dribble and heaved it, from roughly 55 feet. The ball swished, and the Sun Devils erupted.
Florida State–Miami (13).
The situation: The visiting Seminoles have had a miserable season, losing 20 games for the first time since 2000–01, and appeared to be simply playing out the string. The host Hurricanes, meanwhile, had a half-game lead in the ACC and were looking for their eighth straight win.
The line: Miami was favored by 14.
The late-game scenario: The Canes were blowing out the Noles for much of the day, leading by 25 early in the second half, before being outscored 30–8 in a span of 11 minutes. Locked in a late dogfight, Miami looked like it might escape when Jordan Miller made a three with five seconds left for a two-point lead.
The hero: Matthew Cleveland pulled up from about 30 and splashed his only made three of the game for the win.
Indiana-Purdue (14).
The situation: The Hoosiers were coming off a second straight road loss, getting thumped at Michigan State, and heading into a place where they hadn’t won in a decade. The Boilermakers, 13–1 in Mackey Arena, were looking for revenge after losing in Bloomington on Feb. 4.
The line: Purdue was favored by seven.
The late-game scenario: The biggest surprise of all is that this game was largely decided well before crunch time. With do-everything center Trayce Jackson-Davis scoreless and Purdue leading 40–34 early in the second half, Indiana went on a 12–0 run and never looked back. Winning in Mackey was a surprise, but controlling the game for the final 15 minutes was a shock.
The hero: Freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino had a career-high 35 points, dominating in the midrange and on drives to the basket.
What more must Michigan do to avoid missing the NCAA tournament?
Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK
Most intriguing bubble teams not named North Carolina
You know the preseason No. 1 Tar Heels are trying to avoid a bust of historic proportion. But they have company in terms of interesting bubble scenarios.
Michigan (15).
Current status: Might still be outside the bracket but climbed back into the mix with three straight victories, most recently beating Wisconsin after 7-footer Hunter Dickinson hit a three at the end of regulation to force overtime.
Numbers: No. 55 NCAA NET (before Wisconsin game); No. 41 KenPom; 3–10 in Quad 1 games.
Best attributes: 11–7 Big Ten record and a 31-point win over current ACC leader Pittsburgh.
Bubble trouble: Michigan lost to fellow bubble denizen Arizona State by 25; also lost at home to dreadful Central Michigan.
This week: Huge road games against Illinois and Indiana. A sweep could lock up a bid; a split should help; losing both would likely mean a run is needed in the Big Ten tourney.
Wisconsin (16).
Current status: The Badgers are living squarely on the fault line. Coach Greg Gard’s decision not to foul up three (twice) in the final seconds against Michigan could come back to haunt him on Selection Sunday.
Numbers: No. 70 NET; No. 68 KenPom; 6–6 in Quad 1 games.
Best attributes: Road win over Big East leader Marquette; neutral-site win over fellow bubble denizen USC.
Bubble trouble: The Badgers haven’t beaten an NCAA team outside Madison since Dec. 11; haven’t won two games in a row since Dec. 30 to Jan. 3; losing league record.
This week: Home against Purdue; at Minnesota. The first one is a huge opportunity; the second one presents no upside for winning but massive downside for losing.
Arizona State and USC (17).
Current status: USC might be a pinch ahead of ASU, but both are in squirmy territory. The Sun Devils and Trojans are intertwined, because their game in Los Angeles on Saturday could be an elimination game for the loser. (Though what happens Thursday will be huge as well, with USC hosting Arizona and ASU visiting UCLA.)
Numbers: ASU is No. 59 NET; No. 61 KenPom; 4–3 in Quad 1 games. USC is No. 45 NET; No. 32 KenPom; 4–5 in Quad 1 games.
Best attributes: ASU had early neutral-site wins over Creighton, Michigan and VCU, and now a road win over Arizona. USC has beaten UCLA and Auburn at home, and Arizona State in Tempe.
Bubble trouble: Sun Devils have losses to Texas Southern and San Francisco (but were willing to play both on the road). Trojans wish they hadn’t scheduled their opener against coach Andy Enfield’s old school, Florida Gulf Coast, because that was a loss; road defeat against Oregon State also suboptimal.
This week: Laid out above, with ASU making the Los Angeles road swing and USC hosting the Arizona schools. If either sweeps, that’s huge. If one or both split, that can still be useful. They can’t both go winless, since they’re playing each other.
Clemson (18).
Current status: Infused with new life after a 25-point road win over NCAA-bound North Carolina State, but still this remains a fluid situation.
Numbers: No. 58 NET; No. 69 KenPom; 4–2 in Quad 1 games.
Best attributes: A win over Duke; a sweep of N.C. State; a road win over Pitt.
Bubble trouble: Three brutal losses to South Carolina, Loyola Chicago and Louisville.
This week: Major road opportunity at Virginia, then a must-win home game against Notre Dame.
West Virginia (19).
Current status: Clinging to great metrics and a winning record (16–13), while hoping a 5–11 Big 12 mark is excused. The Mountaineers probably need more wins, plural.
Numbers: No. 27 NET; No. 20 KenPom; 4–12 in Quad 1 games.
Best attributes: Blew out Pitt on the road; beat Auburn; some good Big 12 wins.
Bubble trouble: Haven’t won a road game since January and haven’t won more than two in a row since December; nonconference achievements are pretty scant other than beating Pitt.
This week: Immense games at Iowa State and home against Kansas State. Neither would be a bad loss, but if WVU enters the Big 12 tournament 16–15, it probably would need to make the final.
One-third of the Mountain West (20). After league-leading San Diego State, the rest of the league’s upper echelon is sweating it out. That’s Boise State, Nevada and Utah State, with New Mexico probably sliding down into the desperation zone and needing to win the automatic bid.
Nevada (22–7, 12–4) has the best opportunity for two wins this week (at Wyoming, home against UNLV). Boise State has the best chances for quality wins (San Diego State at home, at Utah State). Utah State has the most momentum, taking a three-game losing streak to UNLV on Wednesday and then closing with Boise.
The guess here is that at least one of those three bubble teams gets in, maybe two.
