Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Oklahoma State Cowboys Big 12 Tournament Matchup

UC is 2-5 in the all-time series.

Mar 5, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) dribbles against the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images / Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — UC basketball matches up against Oklahoma State again on Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ to kick off the first round of the 2025 Big 12 Tournament.

Cincinnati just lost to OSU 78-67 on Saturday and is trying to avoid a four-game losing streak to end the 2025 Big 12 run. UC enters the game ranked 50th in the NET rankings and 56th on KenPom, while OSU is 94th and 96th in those metrics. Bart Torvik gives Cincinnati a 69% chance to win the game with a projected score of 72-67.

"Credit to Oklahoma State. The way they played tonight, I thought in the first half they hurt us over the top in transition, in the post, and off the bounce," UC head coach Wes Miller noted about Saturday's loss. "You look down and see you gave up seven 3-pointers, and it felt like they scored in every way. I wasn't pleased with our play in the last 12 minutes of the first half. We made a nice run at the end of the half to make it manageable, and our guys did a nice job at fighting and competing in the second half. We got some good looks, but couldn't convert to get back in the game."

Cincinnati is 2-5 all-time against OSU.

Offensive Storyline: Can The Shooting Mend?

OK State is a mediocre defense, but UC had little success hunting good offense on Saturday. They shot 40.6% from the floor and 25% from deep in what's just become the norm for UC in conference play.

The Cowboys rank 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing 77 points per game in conference play. They play at a blistering tempo (19th in adjusted tempo this season), allowing Cincinnati's rough shooting offense plenty of chances at volume, but constant misses are the same as sporadic. Add in the fact they have a size disadvantage and are allowing 54.4%/34.4%% conference shooting splits from two/three, and you get a nice opponent to possibly bounce back against.

That didn't play out on Saturday though. OSU showed its might at home and showcased Cincinnati's massive energy issues away from Fifth Third Arena. The focus and fatigue just seem like it's waning for a team that's fallen so short of expectations this season.

It's so hard to build a modern offense with two mid-range heavy shooters and Cincinnati's experiencing that in real time with Jizzle James and Day Day Thomas. They are strong individual talents but are just not consistently accurate enough with their jumpers this season (James is under 43% from midrange, under 29% from three this season and Thomas is shooting under 41.3% from every area of the floor).

You can't win in the Big 12 with those numbers, and UC likely won't move on to the second round if that duo shoots 11-34 from the field as they did on Saturday.

Defensive Storyline: Handle A Beefy Big

Former Xavier star turned OSU forward Abou Ousmane baptized the Bearcats' defense inside on Saturday and kept exposing Cincinnati's strong height, mixed with lacking size to go with it.

Sure, Cincinnati has some long defenders in Aziz Bandaogo and Dillon Mitchell, but that doesn't matter if you have a 6-10, 250-pound bruiser in Abou Ousmane (12.5 points, 5.4 rebounds) to move them out of the way. He's the only player in the rotation shooting over 43.1% from the floor and he scorched Cincinnati for 24 points on 9-18 shooting Saturday.

Cincinnati can't let him dictate the pace of the game again and they have to try and keep the best free-throw-hunting team in the conference off the line a little better than 17 attempts. Easier said than done against an OK State offense that will be confident facing UC again less than three days later. They had the perfect elixir ready for a shaky UC three-point defense by dialing in seven of nine attempts on Saturday against the now second-worst three-point defense in the Big 12

If Ousmane eats again and the Cowboys continue winning the boards with their tempo, the math makes it really hard to move on. Cincinnati is not playing with confidence anymore and has lost six of its past seven games away from Fifth Third Arena.

Prediction: 72-70 Cowboys

Season Prediction Record: 24-7

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