Cincinnati-No. 12 Iowa State Big 12 Tournament Betting Odds, Prediction

UC can't afford another loss this season.

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (2) looks for a shot as Cincinnati Bearcats' guard Day Day Thomas (1) attempts to defend during the second half in the Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 15, 2025 in Ames, Iowa. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — UC is headed into Wednesday's game a betting underdog against No. 12 Iowa State. The Cyclones are favored by 7.5 points, with a point total sitting at 136.5 ahead of a 12:30 p.m. ET tip on ESPN.

The Bearcats lost at ISU a month ago 81-70 and Bart Torvik gives them a 28% chance of winning with a projected score of ISU 70-65. Cincinnati is 15-17 against the spread and 18-14 straight up entering the game, while the Cyclones are 18-13 ATS and 23-8 SU.

UC and ISU have not hit overs very often, going a combined 23-39 to the over this season. Still, the Bearcats just went over on Wednesday and have gone over in four of nine games as an underdog.

Wes Miller's team has to win to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive with an eventual automatic bid from the Big 12 Tournament title.

Prediction: 72-71 Bearcats

Cincinnati hasn't shot the three well in conference play (30.2% during conference regular season), but they can win without it and ISU's issues on defense could help them pull off the upset if the Cyclones can't spam fouls like they did last time.

ISU is second in the conference with 22.6 free throw attempts per game, while Cincinnati is best in the conference at defending that. Add in some sloppy ISU play turnover-wise (12.7 per game), and UC can win the shooting math. The Cyclones are a bad interior defense (61.9% allowed on close twos, 90.6% on dunks), opening things up for Dillon Mitchell to keep feasting.

UC moves on to the next round with a thrilling ranked win.

Season Prediction Record: 24-8

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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