Big 12 Media Days: Four Big 12 Football Programs Most Likely to Emerge as Consistent Conference Contenders

Which programs could emerge as consistent Big 12 contenders?

Brett Yormark speaking at Big 12 Media Days | Brian McLean/On Assignment Photo/TCU on SI

Parity is part of what makes the Big 12 a fun conference, particularly in recent years. The Big 12 has seen four different champions in the last four seasons. The conference's depth, unpredictability and underdog attitude has made the Big 12 a fan favorite since powerhouses Texas and Oklahoma fled for the SEC.

In losing the Sooners and the Longhorns, though, the Big 12 also lost its sense of dominance. Oklahoma won the conference six times in a row from 2015-2020 and seven times from 1996-2010, while Texas finished as champs four times, including its final year before leaving the Big 12. While not having a clear-cut frontrunner program in the conference is not a terrible thing, Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark, on Tuesday morning at Big 12 Media Day One, expressed a desire to see a couple of programs rise to consistent contender status.

"Parity matters, but ultimately over time, hopefully sooner than later, there will be a couple of our schools that will emerge as elite schools that are always a part of the conversations at the highest levels," Yormark said. "That's what we are working towards. But it starts with parity and being competitive top to bottom, and I think we are there, and I think we're the best in the country when you think of how deep we are. But I do believe that long term, we need certain schools to emerge to the top."

Who will these "certain schools" be? The conference is deep, and many of its programs are capable of becoming elite, but here are four Big 12 schools that are most likely to emerge at the top of the conference and stay there for the foreseeable future.

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Arizona State

The Sun Devils are coming off of a Big 12 Championship and a thrilling loss to Texas in the College Football Playoff in 2024, and on paper, they look poised to do it again in 2025. Head coach Kenny Dillingham is one of the most promising young coaches in the country, and he is returning a nation-leading 17 starters in 2025. In an era dominated by the transfer portal and NIL, retaining players is just as important as bringing them in, and Dillingham prioritized that this offseason.

Geographically, Arizona State sits in the middle of the state, squarely situated in a recruiting hotbed that is the Southwest. Pair the location with an opportunity to repeat as Big 12 champions, a much-improved NIL presence, and a young coach who is aggressive on the recruiting trail, it's not hard to imagine Arizona State contending in the conference for years to come.

Texas Tech

Texas Tech made waves this week when Felix Ojo, Texas' No. 1 ranked recruit per 247 Sports Composite, committed to the Red Raiders, agreeing to a three-year $5.1 million guaranteed deal. Texas Tech has money and a lot of it, and these days, that is enough to keep you in the conversation. Joey McGuire reeled in the second best transfer class in the country, behind only LSU. Colorado coach Deion Sanders said it best at Big 12 Media Day... "Joey got that money."

Money and recruiting are only part of the equation. Believe it or not, on-field results still matter, and that is where Texas Tech has been lacking in recent years. The Red Raiders haven't won more than eight games since 2009, when they went 9-4, and that was long before McGuire took over as the head coach. This year, he has all the tools to cross that eight-win threshold, and he has the resources and backing to keep it up for a while.

TCU

TCU played for a national championship three seasons ago, and while the two seasons since then haven't been quite as successful, the 2022 season proves that Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs are capable of doing it. TCU has also established itself as a top recruiter in the conference thanks to a competitive NIL collective and a great geographic location in DFW. The Horned Frogs currently have the best 2025 class in the conference and finished the 2024 cycle with the second best.

This upcoming season is an important one for the Horned Frogs and the program's future. Getting back to their contending ways will reestablish the team as one of the Big 12's best and will go a long way in keeping the recruiting and transfer portal momentum.

Kansas State

The Wildcats have won at least nine games in each of their last three seasons, winning ten games and the conference championship in 2022. Kansas State's biggest strength right now is its consistency. Since Chris Kleiman took over the program in 2019, the team has only won less than eight games just once. Recruiting certainly is not Kansas State's strong suit, but the team did sign five-star tight end Linkon Cure, the highest-ranked recruit in program history, in 2025.

Player retention is where the Wildcats excel, and that is just as important as recruiting. Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham went as far as saying recruiting is dead, but retention is alive. That's an exaggeration, but Kansas State has proven that keeping their guys is often enough to contend. Parlay this with sustained on-field results, and the Wildcats will be a problem in the Big 12 for years.