Notre Dame’s Playoff Path Could Crumble With a Slip Against USC

The No. 20 USC Trojans travel to South Bend for a highly anticipated matchup to face No. 13 Notre Dame. With College Football Playoff hopes rising, USC can make a statement win and knock the Fighting Irish out of CFP contention with a win this weekend.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The No. 20 USC Trojans earned their first ranked win at home since 2022 after their 31-13 win over then-No. 15 Michigan. The victory answered a lot of lingering questions for USC Trojans fans, from the defensive performance to the solid conference win to reignite hope at Big Ten title contention.

On top of a chance at a Big Ten title, the Trojans resurged in the College Football Playoff race, with analyst Heather Dinich ranking the Trojans one of her most confident CFP teams this season.

College Football Analyst Sees Trojans as "Spotlight" CFP Team In Big Ten

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Dinich released her midseason rankings, and ranked which teams from each conference into two different categories: Spotlight and Enigma. She also broke down a scenario as if the CFP were happening today — outlining which teams would make it, which are on the cusp, which still have work to do and which would be out entirely.

When it came to the Big Ten, Dinich saw the Trojans as a clear "Spotlight" team for their both their season long performance and their big win over Michigan.

The analysis behind the Trojans ranking came from the perspective of USC looking like a Top 25 CFP all season long, with their week 7 win as proof.

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"The Trojans have looked like a CFP top 25 team through the first half of the season, with their only loss a close one on the road to a ranked Illinois team. In Week 7, USC's convincing 31-13 win against Michigan pushed it into more serious Big Ten contention," Dinich wrote in an ESPN article.

Even after the close loss to Illinois, the Trojans are the only team in the Big Ten to score 30-plus points in each of their games — a testament to their explosive offense coach Lincoln Riley has developed

Another true test for the Trojans is right around the corner, as USC travels for a ranked road contest at No. 13 Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana.

Why USC Trojans Need Another Defining Win

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman shake hands after the game at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Entering USC's third ranked opponent this season, there's a lot at stake. Dinich continued in her analysis, recognizing the reality for USC if they pull off the upset in South Bend.

"A win at Notre Dame on Saturday would be a significant boost to USC's playoff résumé, while simultaneously knocking the Irish out of playoff contention," Dinich wrote.

Since the 0-2 loss, coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish have proven their college football dominance, and quarterback CJ Carr has slowly become the leader Freeman needs.

The Trojans enter the weekend as underdogs, with ESPN Analytics giving USC a 31.8% chance to win. Notre Dame enters the matchup as a 7.5-point favorite.

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans running back King Miller (30) runs for a touchdown in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Based on the numbers, Carr is progressing quickly, recording 1,622 passing yards, 13 touchdowns through six games. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has passed for 1,852 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions.

What the Trojans do face is a new look on the running back lineup, with both Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders out with injuries.

Running back King Miller impressed the college football world with his breakthrough 158 rushing yards and 49-yard touchdown against the Wolverines, which earned him four weekly honors. Miller was named Big Freshman Football Player of the Week, Burlsworth Trophy Walk-On of the Week, Paul Hornung National Player of the Week and Shaun Alexander Freshman Player of the week.

For USC to secure another ranked win, and the chance to knock the Fighting Irish out of CFP contention, they must execute cleanly on both sides of the ball and play dominate on the line of scrimmage.

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