Wanna Bet? A Guide to NFL Championship Sunday
Legit Terrifying
Wanna Bet?
Haven’t placed your Championship Weekend bets yet? I’m gonna unleash a flurry of numbers to help you make an informed decision. And you must read Frankie Taddeo’s betting breakdowns: AFC Championship and NFC Championship.
Bucs at Packers:
Spread: Packers (-3.5)
Total: 51.5
Money Lines: Packers (-175), Bucs (+155)
As Taddeo noted, approximately 55% of all spread wagers are on the Packers, while 71% of all money line wagers are on the Bucs. And 78% of wagers are on the over.
At 11–6 against the spread this season, the Packers enter Sunday with the second-most ATS wins. They’re 5–3 ATS at Lambeau Field, including last week’s 6.5-point cover vs. the Rams, and 5–2 ATS during their seven-game winning streak (including 4–0 ATS in their last four games). They’re also 6–4 ATS in winning nine of their last 10 games overall and have covered in five straight home games against teams with a winning record.
The Packers are 5–1 ATS in their last six games after registering at least 350 total yards in their previous game (484 vs. the Rams) and 18–71 ATS in their last 26 games after rushing for more than 150 in their previous game (188 vs. the Rams). And Aaron Rodgers has covered in approximately 65% of career home games.
The Bucs opened the season 3–4 ATS on the road but have covered in three straight road games and five of their last seven games overall, including last week in New Orleans (+3.5). They’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, and Tom Brady is a staggering 40-17-1 ATS as an underdog in his career (5–3 in the playoffs).
And there’s a reason why 78% of wagers are on the over: The over is 7–1 in the Bucs’ last eight games following an ATS win and 6–1 in the Bucs’ last seven games as a road underdog. Further, the over is 8–0 in the Packers’ last eight January games and 4–0 in the Packers’ last four games vs. a team with a winning record.
Bills at Chiefs:
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
Total: 54.5
Money Lines: Chiefs (-175), Bills (+150)
Despite an all-clear from Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs remain modest 3.5-point favorites as of Saturday morning and most wagers are still coming in on the Bills (just over 55%). The total has jumped several times, opening at 50.5 before climbing to 54.5, though that hasn’t scared nearly 70% of bettors from taking the over.
The Chiefs were the most overvalued team all season and enter this weekend with a 6-10-1 ATS record, including 3–6 ATS at home. They’re 1–8 ATS in their last nine and will face the best ATS team in the NFL. As noted, at 11–6 ATS, the Packers rank second in ATS wins. At 12–6, the Bills rank first, most recently covering against the Ravens (-2.5) last weekend.
The Bills are 11–1 straight up in the last 12 games, during which they’re 9–3 ATS. They’re also 4–0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, 4–0 ATS in their last four road games, and 5–0 in their last five games after registering fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game (220 vs. the Ravens).
Mahomes is 10-2-1 against the spread as an underdog or favorite of three points or fewer. Keep an eye on that trend if the spread, for whatever reason, dips before kickoff on Sunday night.
We did a full podcast championship weekend breakdown … QB head-to-head prop bets … Sleeper DFS picks for the NFC Championship … Best NFC Championship prop bets … Best AFC Championship prop bets … And check out SI Gambling for more gambling news, advice, and insights
Odds & Ends
Tony Elliott is reportedly high on Danny White’s list for Tennessee head coach … We have no idea what’s happening with the Tokyo Olympics … NFL Mock Draft: Zach Wilson goes No. 2, Panthers draft a QB … Incredible and sobering article on Hank Aaron … The Bears hired a new defensive coordinator after Chuck Pagano’s retirement … The NBA is rescinding Draymond Green’s technical … Matt Patricia is going back to New England … Ranking the top 100 NFL free agents for 2021.
Bernie and Chrissy
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