Fantasy Clicks: Tom Terrific, thin 'Skins and a Vick flick
| Recent Fantasy Clicks 8-14-09: Tom Terrfic, Thin 'Skins & A Vick Flick 8-12-09: 'Royal Pains' Has Moved To Tuesdays 8-10-09: Meet The Avoidables/HOF Revelations 8-07-09: Defending The (Seemingly) Indefensible 8-05-09: Welcome To The Hotel California 8-03-09: Houston, We Shouldn't Have A Problem 7-31-09: Meet The New Fantasy Four Horsemen 7-29-09: The Obligatory All-Favre Revelations 7-27-09: The Great American RB Race For No. 1 7-24-09: Buehrle's Relentless Pursuit Of Perfection 7-22-09: It's All About The Slot -- #9 7-20-09: Ian's Opening Salvo/Parting Shot 7-17-09: It's All About The Slot -- #6 7-15-09: MLB All-Star Game Revelations 7-13-09: Another Twin-Killing Under The Dome 7-10-09: The Giant Beast Walks Among Us 7-08-09: It's All About The Draft Slot: #1 7-06-09: Just Another Day At The Bronx Zoo 7-03-09: Meet Your Fantasyland All-Stars 7-01-09: Fitz & His Merry Men Of Angry Rushers 6-29-09: The Joys Of Stealing Home On The Road 6-17-09: Joe Versus The Volcano Of Expectations 6-15-09: Phabulous Phantasy Goodness in Philly 6-12-09: Fenway Franks & Losers' Angst 6-10-09: Where Fantasy Eagles Dare Fly 6-08-09: Marathon Men Take Over Petco Park 6-05-09: Mr. 300 Goes To Washington 6-03-09: Just Shooting The Bayou Brees 6-01-09: Angels and speed demons in SoCal 5-29-09: Fantasy foxes invade the desert 5-27-09: A Study In Jungle Karma 5-25-09: M&M Boys' A-list production 5-22-09: It Was A 20-to-1 Shot, Doc 5-20-09: SI's Bout with NFL Mock Madness 5-18-09: Tigers making most of split personality 5-15-09: Chris Davis ... Built For Fun 5-13-09: Not Favre From Over? Ugh! 5-11-09: Prince Albert's Great American Day 5-08-09: Manny's Suspended Animation 5-04-09: The Man Of Steal Rides Again 4-29-09: Dangers of RB Overpopulation 4-27-09: It's All About The O's 4-24-09: The New Falconer 4-22-09: Fantasy Breakdown Of NFL Sked 4-20-09: The Utlimate Fantasy Catch-22 4-17-09: Cyclist Of The Century 4-15-09: NFL Slices Of Heaven, Part II 4-13-09: All Hail The Check-Swing King 4-10-09: Welcome To Adventureland 4-08-09: NFL Slices Of Heaven 4-06-09: Opening Night Revelations 4-03-09: Draft Night Revelations, Part II 3-30-09: Draft Night Revelations, Part I 3-27-09: Draft Rules To Live By 3-23-09: Catch A Rising Star 3-20-09: Look Out For Pick No. 1 ... and 24 3-18-09: PVR Perfect 3-17-09: Don't Forget About Me 3-13-09: Welcome To Spring Break 3-12-09: LT2 Losing His Charge 3-11-09: Sudden Impact 3-09-09: Hip, Hip ... Hurry Back, A-Rod 3-06-09: Revenge Of The Cyst 3-05-09: A Disappointing Deadline Day 3-04-09: Cosmic Charlie 3-02-09: Aces In The Hole 2-27-09: Depth Perceptions 2-23-09: NFL Combine Revelations 2-20-09: Designated Long Drivers 2-19-09: The Brady Hunch 2-16-09: Seeking Sweet Relief 2-13-09: Sneak peek at an MLB mock draft 2-12-09: Boozer's Snoozer Of A Season 2-11-09: Impossible to ignore 2-9-09: The Secret Life of A-Rod 2-6-09: Pick of the 2B litter 2-5-09: Time for a fantasy bailout 2-4-09: Another winged wonder? 2-2-09: Super Bowl Revelations 1-30-09: Super Bowl Clicks 1-29-09: Aussie Re-Open 1-27-09: Fire sale! 1-26-09: Tim Lincecum vs. the world 1-23-09: The can't-miss kid? 1-22-09: Rip off! 1-20-09: No consolation prizes 1-19-09: Championship Sunday Revelations 1-16-09: Into the great wide open |
What Knee Surgery?
Tom Brady: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images |
Oh, what a night! Tom Brady makes his triumphant return to the field. Michael Vick surprisingly signs with the Eagles -- who at last check, already have a savior at quarterback. And the Washington Redkins -- no matter the head coach -- staked another claim to being the worst preseason team in NFL history. Hmmmm ... perhaps we should attack Thursday's action on a game-by-game basis, mini-Revelations-style.
Four Thoughts From Patriots-Eagles
New England 27, Philadelphia 25
1. With all due respect to Michael Vick's high-profile comeback on Thursday, his signing has essentially zero relevance in fantasyland. Donovan McNabb is not only the No. 7 fantasy quarterback, he's also the unquestioned leader of a team built to win the Super Bowl now. Yes, Vick certainly has the capacity to score 2-4 touchdowns this season in a 'Wildcat' setting ... but does that really warrant a spot on your precious fantasy roster? (Remember, in his heyday as the Falcons QB, Vick was nothing more than a 7th-round draft pick.) And if McNabb should ever go down to injury, who's to say Vick would commmand all the quarterbacking reps ahead of Kevin Kolb, Philly's redoubtable QB of the future?
2. I'd like to say I'm surprised that Brady completed 10-of-15 passes for two touchdowns -- on the heels of an extensive rehab after knee surgery. But seriously, did you not think Brady wanted to show the universe he's still The Wiz? Did you not think coach Bill Belichick sought to put the NFL world on early notice the 2007 Patriots might very well be back? At the very least, Brady has secured his spot as a Round 2 pick in fantasy drafts, barring any injury setbacks. He even has a chance at going ahead of Drew Brees in Round 1.
3. He only touched the ball 12 times for 67 yards, but Eagles rookie LeSean McCoy has already proven his worth as a must-handcuff with Brian Westbrook in fantasy drafts. In my opinion, the Westbrook-McCoy pairing can be just as lethal as LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles this season.
4. With one game already in the books for New England, Sammy Morris (12 carries, 45 yards; 59 total yards) has taken the early lead in the hard-to-predict battle royale amongst Morris, Laurence Maroney (14 rushing yards), Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk. But a word of caution here: The Patriots are still a pass-first offense in the red zone ... whether they're targeting Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway or a once-dismissed tight end like Chris Baker (3 catches, 22 yards, 2 TDs vs. Philly).
Four Thoughts From Redskins-Ravens
Baltimore 23, Washington 0
1. I don't know if it's an NFL preseason record, but 15 different Ravens caught at least one pass in the club's blowout win (Justin Harper led the way with four catches for 57 yards and one score). More remarkably, all three Baltimore quarterbacks -- Troy Smith (200 yards, 1 TD), Joe Flacco (103 yards) and John Beck (105 yards) -- eclipsed the century mark in passing yards ... which would be a feat for the pass-happy Saints, let alone the usually-stuck-in-mud Ravens.
2. I'm on record for predicting that Ray Rice will accrue at least 700 rushing AND 700 receiving yards this season, while becoming one of the NFL's most complete backs; and Thursday's brief cameo (60 total yards) did nothing to dissuade my summertime proclamation. It goes without saying: If you're planning to rule the world in a Points Per Reception league, you'll need to draft either Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles or Rice as a flex-option tailback. They're gold assets in PPR leagues!
3. Here's yet another reason why Jason Campbell shouldn't fear losing his job to Colt Brennan, aka America's Most Popular Backup Quarterback. With a great chance to make his mark, Brennan completed just four passes (in 12 attempts) -- excluding the one Ravens interception.
4. By now, you've heard the warnings from coach Jim Zorn about Clinton Portis ... and how the Redskins will limit Portis' touches in September/October, as a means of keeping him fresh for the whole season. On the surface, that all sounds well and good. But the sad reality is this: Washington is seriously lacking in quality ground-game alternatives to Portis. And yes, that comment was directly intended for Rock Cartwright (24 rushing yards) and Ladell Betts (7 rushing yards) -- who, at 30 years old, are no longer consistent threats for 100-yard games. Here's one tidy solution: How about signing free-agent back Ryan Torain?
Four Thoughts From Cowboys-Raiders
Oakland 31, Dallas 10
1. From my view in the bleachers, Darren McFadden has the realistic capacity for 1,600 rushing yards this season. But you wouldn't know this by looking at the inordinate number of magazines/Web site listing him as the 20th-ranked rusher in fantasyland. Maybe that's because Michael Bush is an emerging force to be reckoned with. Or maybe it stems from Justin Fargas currently sitting atop the Raiders' depth chart. Either way, assuming you saw D-Mac toy with the 'Boys for 72 yards on just five touches (including one 45-yard run), you'll then understand why I would NEVER let him get past Round 4 ... no matter the league, no matter the draft style.
2. Here's something that'll keep fantasy owners up at night come September: If any Raiders wideout has a chance at 40-plus catches in '09, it's Chaz Schilens. And if any Oakland receiver has a legitimate shot at seven touchdowns (drum roll please) ... again, it's Schilens (5 catches, 52 yards vs. Dallas). This isn't a knock on speedy rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey, per se (rhyme intentional), it's more of a condemnation of Javon Walker, Samie Parker, Johnny Lee Higgins as fantasy stalwarts.
3. Congratulations are in order for Cowboys QB Tony Romo's remarkably efficient night (4-of-6 completions for 36 yards, 1 TD). Extra kudos also go out to receiver Sam Hurd, for getting a leg-up on the WR2 competition with five catches for 79 yards. Other than that, the Dallas passing game exhibited no life.
4. As for the rushers (Marion Barber, Felix Jones, Tashard Choice) ... for crimedy sake, take all measures to stay healthy throughout the preseason. That's the only way myopic Cowboys fans could possibly be justified in thinking America's Team is better off without Terrell Owens.
Three Thoughts From Cardinals-Steelers
Pittsburgh 20, Arizona 10
1. Outside of the warm and cuddly Tyler Palko-Larry Fitzgerald reunion with the city of Pittsburgh, there really wasn't much to gush about with the Cardinals. Yes, Steve Breaston caught five passes for 52 yards; but most importantly, Kurt Warner (53 yards passing), Anquan Boldin (2 catches, 16 yards) and Fitzgerald (1 catch, 8 yards) escaped without injury.
2. Pittsburgh's seventh-string rusher Isaac Redman took fantasy honors for the evening, scoring two touchdowns off just 10 carries. I mention this factoid only because it's probably the last time we'll ever see "Isaac Redman" and "Fantasy Clicks" lumped together in a Google search.
3. The Steelers may be set at quarterback, running back and the first two receiver slots (Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes), but who's to say Shaun McDonald (6 catches, 69 yards) cannot earn a spot on the club and trump Limas Sweed for the coveted WR3 opening? Yes, McDonald embodies the whole "NFL journeyman" thing and he's had his share of dropsies through the years, but he could be the ideal replacement for Nate Washington (now with Tennessee).
Practice Makes Perfect
Sports Illustrated and SI.com should always be your primary source for voluminous information leading up to fantasy drafts ... but if you're in the mood to participate in a LIVE mock draft on the Web -- while learning NOT to reach for Torry Holt before Round 10 -- here are the best destinations for real-time mocking:
**Mock Draft Central
**AntSports.com
**CBS Sports
**ESPN Mock Draft Lobby
**Fantasy Football Calculator
Speaking Of Mock Drafts ...
I had some time on my hands Thursday afternoon to do a quick 12-team mock draft on ESPN.com (8th pick overall). Here are the results:
My Team
Round 1 -- WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (I would kill to get LT here in a REAL draft)
Round 2 -- RB Chris Johnson, Titans (likewise is true for CJ, my 9th-ranked player)
Round 3 -- RB Clinton Portis, Redskins (slumped to the end of Round 3 -- I had to grab him)
Round 4 -- RB Darren McFadden, Raiders (I can't think of a better RB3 in fantasyland)
Round 5 -- RB Larry Johnson, Chiefs (holds great value when not expected to rule the world)
Round 6 -- WR Hines Ward, Steelers (reached a tad here, but I wanted bankability with Fitz)
Round 7 -- QB Matt Cassel, Chiefs (Todd Haley + Dwayne Bowe + Jamaal Charles = Heck yeah!)
Round 8 -- RB Felix Jones, Cowboys (it's inconceivable he'd fall this far in a real draft)
Round 9 -- QB Kyle Orton, Broncos (if B-Marsh gets a lengthy suspension, this pick could fail)
Round 10 -- TE John Carlson, Seahawks (easily a top-7 tight end, even with Seattle's WR infusion)
Round 11 -- WR Sidney Rice, Vikings (the biggest beneficiary of Brett Favre NOT going to Minny)
Round 12 -- RB Michael Bush, Raiders (the quintessential handcuff to Darren McFadden)
Round 13 -- WR Earl Bennett, Bears (someone has to benefit from Jay Cutler's move to Chicago)
Round 14 -- TE Vernon Davis, 49ers (OC Jimmy Raye has a great track record with tight ends)
Round 15 -- D/ST San Diego Chargers (this pick was solely the result of a Cromartie man-crush)
Round 16 -- PK Matt Prater, Broncos (could nail two 50-yard field goals on any given Sunday)
The QB Quandary
Ever heard of the famous Mike Tyson quote: Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth ...? Well, I had to somewhat abandon my quest for grabbing Felix Jones AND Jerricho Cotchery in Rounds 7 and 8 of the above mock draft ... simply because there was a wayyyy-too-early run on quarterbacks for the 12-team league. Oh sure, I figured Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady would go reasonably early, but some QBs were taken a whole round higher than their standard Average Draft Position value.
Truth be told, I may have reached one-half round to grab Matt Cassel as my QB1, but it's awfully hard to ignore Kanas City's finishing kick of Denver, Buffalo, Cleveland, @ Cincinnati, @ Denver from Weeks 13-17 -- traditionally the playoff periods for fantasy football. And to buttress Cassel, I opted for Broncos QB Kyle Orton, given the aggressive play-calling track record of Josh McDaniels and Denver's offensive toys of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler, Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.
Here's a look at the quarterbacks taken in Thursday's draft:
Drew Brees, Saints -- Round 1, Pick 11
Tom Brady, Patriots -- Round 1, Pick 12
Peyton Manning, Colts -- Round 2, Pick 9
Kurt Warner, Cardinals -- Round 3, Pick 9
Aaron Rodgers, Packers -- Round 4, Pick 8
Tony Romo, Cowboys -- Round 4, Pick 10
Philip Rivers, Chargers -- Round 4, Pick 12
Matt Schaub, Texans -- Round 5, Picks 2
Matt Ryan, Falcons -- Round 5, Pick 7
Donovan McNabb, Eagles -- Round 6, Pick 3
Carson Palmer, Bengals -- Round 7, Pick 3
Jay Cutler, Bears -- Round 7, Pick 4
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks -- Round 7, Pick 6
Matt Cassel, Chiefs -- Round 7, Pick 8 (my pick)
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers -- Round 9, Pick 11
Kyle Orton, Broncos -- Round 9, Pick 8 (my pick)
Eli Manning, Giants -- Round 9, Pick 11
David Garrard, Jaguars -- Round 11, Pick 1
Jake Delhomme, Panthers -- Round 11, Pick 5
Trent Edwards, Bills -- Round 11, Pick 12
Chad Pennington, Dolphins -- Round 13, Pick 6
Jason Campbell, Redskins -- Round 13, Pick 12
Sage Rosenfels, Vikings -- Round 14, Pick 6
Shaun Hill, 49ers -- Round 15, Pick 6
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders -- Round 16, Pick 7
I Tweet, Therefore I Am
I'm a little ambivalent on the whole Twitter thing. Yes, I'm happy to finally have an account (@SI_JayClemons) -- one that fantasy football fans can access 24/7 with questions/comments about players, teams, drafts and starting lineups. Yes, it's great to "follow" hilarious celebrities like Michael Ian Black, Kevin Pollak, Jason Segel, Steve Carell, Stewie Griffin, Bonnie Hunt and, of course, Statler and Waldorf of Muppets fame. And yes, it's sweet to already have nearly 150 followers after just six days of service. However, Twitter is more voyeuristic than Facebook, and I cannot help but wonder if this one-sided e-fad won't outlast the Pet Rock from the 1970s.
In the meantime, I will try to pass the Twitter downtime with inane (and sometimes comical) comments like the following:
"How's this for irony: Brandon Marshall gets 'demoted' but moves ahead of Steve Smith (who SHOULD be ready for Week 1) in the WR rankings" ..."
"I wonder if two people have ever exchanged fisticuffs after fighting over which Hostess cupcake tasted better -- the yellow or brown?"
"I must apologize to the UFL's Las Vegas Locomotives ... I was wrong to lump you in with Kylie Minogue's 'Locomotion' ...
"Because you can't spell "American Soccer Fun" without Capri-Sun! ..."
"I did a little research on who was the first celebrity to regularly attend Lakers games: None other than Mr. Haney of Green Acres fame ..."
"I just visited an out-of-town friend's house to feed/clean up after his cats ... and one of 'em hissed when I gave him/her the wrong omelette ..."
"Thank god for IMDB ... how else would we know what Lacey Underall is up to these days -- 30 years since the filming of Caddyshack? ..."
"Billy Mays ... say it ain't so, brother? ..."
"Someone oughta tell Michael Crabtree's adviser the NFL is a big boys league ... veiled threats of sititng out the season mean bupkes!"
"The NFL Network's Missing Rings series has been great ... suggestions for next batch -- '80 Browns, '79 Rams, '82 Jets, '84 Dolphins ..."
We Interrupt Fantasy Clicks ...
... To announce the arrival of Sports Illustrated's fantasy football spectacular, available online and at magazine racks nationwide. This 168-page tome is chock-full of rankings, columns (two from yours truly), features, draft-day advice, in-season strategies, booms, busts and an experts' mock draft, enlisting an army of SI's award-winning fantasy and NFL writers (including Peter King). Last but not least, it boasts perhaps the coolest cover of any fantasy magazine you'll ever see!
Am I overselling it a little bit? Perhaps. But the early feedback I've gotten from my fantasy brethren suggests SI's first major foray into fantasy football will be an absolute triumph -- and that it could become an all-time best seller within the genre. (UPDATE: My well-placed moles have informed me that SI's fantasy mag is indeed the top seller to date ... sweeeeeet!)
Choose Your Quarterback
Peyton Manning: Andy Lyons/Getty Images |
If a real fantasy league draft were held today, I'd probably take Drew Brees over Peyton Manning every time -- given Brees' annual flirtation with 5,000 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. But am I too quick to assume that Brees is the obvious choice over Manning (and Tom Brady, for that matter)? Here's a week-to-week breakdown of the two passing titans:
Week 1 -- Brees (vs. Detroit) over Manning (vs. Jacksonville)
Week 2 -- Manning (@ Miami) over Brees (@ Philadelphia)
Week 3 -- Manning (@ Arizona) over Brees (@ Buffalo)
Week 4 -- Manning (vs. Seattle) over Brees (vs. N.Y. Jets)
Week 5 -- Manning (@ Tennessee) over Brees (BYE)
Week 6 -- Brees (vs. N.Y. Giants) over Manning (BYE)
Week 7 -- Manning (@ St. Louis) over Brees (@ Miami)
Week 8 -- Manning (vs. San Francisco) over Brees (vs. Atlanta)
Week 9 -- Manning (vs. Houston) over Brees (vs. Carolina)
Week 10 -- Brees (@ St. Louis) over Manning (vs. New England)
Week 11 -- Brees (@ Tampa Bay) over Manning (@ Baltimore)
Week 12 -- Manning (@ Houston) over Brees (vs. New England)
Week 13 -- Brees (@ Washington) over Manning (vs. Tennessee)
Week 14 -- Manning (vs. Denver) over Brees (@ Atlanta)
Week 15 -- Brees (vs. Dallas) over Manning (@ Jacksonville)
Week 16 -- Brees (vs. Tampa Bay) over Manning (vs. N.Y. Jets)
Week 17 -- Brees (@ Carolina) over Manning (@ Buffalo)
Verdict: For argument's sake, let's pretend a fantasy owner drafts both Brees and Manning this season. After riding Peyton for the first nine weeks, he/she could then deal Manning at Week 10 for top-of-the-line value -- knowing full well that Brees would be more dominant from Weeks 10-17 (including the fantasy playoffs, traditionally Weeks 14, 15, 16). Of course, I would only recommend this course of action for highly skilled, thrill-seeking owners ... since they'd be under tremendous pressure to nail the rest of their high-round picks. That aside, I'm a little shocked Peyton claimed this battle by a 9-8 vote; and maybe, just maybe, I'll have to rethink his standing in the overall QB rankings.
The Ultimate 1-2 Punches
By my count, there are 20 legitimate running back time-shares, all of which could greatly impact your championship chances this season (especially if you fail to pair Colts rookie Donald Brown with Joseph Addai ... or Raiders second-year stud Darren McFadden with either Michael Bush or Justin Fargas). In fact, here are the time-share rankings, from No. 1 (Marion Barber/Felix Jones) to No. 20 (the Broncos' full-house stable, led by rookie Knowshon Moreno):
1. Marion Barber/Felix Jones, Cowboys
2. DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
3. Chris Johnson/LenDale White, Titans
4. Darren McFadden/Michael Bush/Justin Fargas, Raiders
5. Marshawn Lynch/Fred Jackson, Bills
6. Joseph Addai/Donald Brown, Colts
7. LaDainian Tomlinson/Darren Sproles, Chargers
8. Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush, Saints
9. Thomas Jones/Leon Washington/Shonn Greene, Jets
10. Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor, Vikings
11. Ryan Grant/Brandon Jackson, Packers
12. Larry Johnson/Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
13. Ray Rice/Willis McGahee/Le'Ron McClain, Ravens
14. Brian Westbrook/LeSean McCoy, Eagles
15. Willie Parker/Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
16. Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower, Cardinals
17. Derrick Ward/Earnest Graham/Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
18. Jamal Lewis/Jerome Harrison, Browns
19. Kevin Faulk/Laurence Maroney/Fred Taylor/Sammy Morris, Patriots
20. Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter/Ryan Torain/Peyton Hillis/LaMont Jordan, Broncos ('full-house backfield?' -- it's more like the timeless tale of the Old Woman Who Lived In A Shoe).
12 Happy Men
Which brings us to the 12 undisputed backs who WILL carry the load between the 20s, inside the red zone and probably on 3rd and short:
1. Michael Turner, Falcons
2. Matt Forte, Bears
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
4. Steven Jackson, Rams
5. Steve Slaton, Texans
6. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
7. Frank Gore, 49ers
8. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
9. Clinton Portis, Redskins
10. Kevin Smith, Lions
11. Cedric Benson, Bengals
12. Julius Jones, Seahawks
Head Of The Class
Here are my revised projections for fantasyland's Top 10 Impact Rookies for 2009:
1. WR Percy Harvin, Vikings (he'll see his share of bubble screens, reverses, Wildcat runs)
2. RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, Cardinals (has zero competition between the 20s ... he's a beast)
3. RB Knowshon Moreno,, Broncos (a nervous pick here ... too many hands in Denver's RB pot)
4. WR Jarrett Dillard, Jaguars (you'll thank me later for this 16th-round receiving gem)
5. WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers (ASSSUMING he doesn't sit out the season ... he'll be fine)
6. TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions (book him for at least 20 red-zone "targets" this season)
7. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders (is he the next Tim Brown ... or Mervyn Fernandez?)
8. RB LeSean McCoy, Eagles (could rise to No. 2 if Brian Westbrook cannot heal quickly)
9. WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles (I see at least three kick-return or punt-return TDs this year)
10. QB Matthew Stafford, Lions (he'll show glimpses of his Elway-esque talent by Week 13)
Sleeper Cells
Last August, I jumped the gun (big time) in heaping mondo praise onto Niners rookie receiver Josh Morgan. Looking back at my stupidity, I simply placed more trust in speculative opinion (then-offenisve coordinator Mike Martz's never-ending compliments and the too-good-to-be-true Terrell Owens comparisons) than actual fact (his minimal hype coming out of college and that Broncos receiver Eddie Royal was far more productive while playing with 'Baby T.O.' at Virginia Tech). What can I say? I was wayyyyyyyy off in declaring Morgan (20 catches, 319 yards, 3 TDs in '08) as a sneaky-good WR3 option.
The Morgan debacle notwithstanding, I enjoy going on the proverbial ledge when trying to find the next great class of fantasy sleepers (defined by those with the capacity to finish top-20 at their respective positions). Like this year's revised top 10:
1. RB Darren McFadden, Raiders (could be top-10 when it's all said and done)
2. WR Sidney Rice, Vikings (IF any receiver is primed for a giant leap, it's Rice)
3. RB Derrick Ward, Bucs (DON'T FORGET his 212-yard rushing day against the Panthers)
4. QB Kyle Orton, Broncos (he can't lose with B-Marsh, Royal, Scheff, Knowshon, C-Buck)
5. TE Vernon Davis, 49ers (look no further than their TE-friendly O-coordinator, Jimmy Raye)
6. RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (a bigger, faster version of DeAngelo Williams; is he better?)
7. WR Earl Bennett, Bears (someone has to benefit from Jay Cutler's greatness)
8. RB Correll Buckhalter, Broncos (don't assume Knowshon Moreno automatically wins the job)
9. TE Ben Utecht/Chase Coffman, Bengals (this tandem is too good to ignore ... right, Carson?)
10. WR Jarrett Dillard, Jaguars (I'm dead serious here: He may lead Jacksonville in receiving yards)
It's All About The Slot: #6
As much as I would love to have Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte or Steven Jackson on my fantasy roster, I would prefer the No. 6 overall pick over the No. 1 spot in deeper leagues. Given the remarkable depth at running back, wide receiver and tight end, I want time to "let the draft come to me." I need the exhilaration/anxiety of hedging my bets every 12-13 picks. And, for once, I crave a legitimate shot at owning either Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss (not the NFL Network host) in the first two rounds! (deep sigh)
Of course, not everyone shares my mid-round hubris. But hath no fear or ambivalence ... because here's a great strategy for nailing your mixed-league draft when possessing the No. 6 pick:
Round 1, Pick 6: Motive -- Best overall player
1st option: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals ... 2nd option: RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
Round 2, Pick 19 overall: Motive -- Best RB or WR available (a tad too early for QBs)
1st option: WR Calvin Johnson, Lions ... 2nd option: WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
Round 3, Pick 30: Motive -- Best RB available (ONLY QB considerations: Brees, Manning, Brady)
1st option: RB Ryan Grant, Packers ... 2nd option: RB Kevin Smith, Lions
Round 4, Pick 43 overall: Motive -- Best RB/WR/QB available
1st option: RB Darren McFadden, Raiders ... 2nd option: QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Round 5, Pick 54: Motive -- Best RB/WR/QB (too much TE depth to reach here)
1st option: RB Larry Johnson, Chiefs ... 2nd option: RB Derrick Ward, Buccaneers
Round 6, Pick 67 overall: Motive -- Best RB/WR/QB/TE available
1st option: RB Willie Parker, Steelers ... 2nd option: WR Lee Evans, Bills
Round 7, Pick 78 overall: Motive -- Best QB/WR/RB/TE available (last chance to land a great QB1)
1st option: QB Matt Ryan, Falcons ... 2nd option: QB Jay Cutler, Bears
Round 8, Pick 91 overall: Motive -- Best WR/RB/QB/TE available
1st option: WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers ... 2nd option: TE John Carlson, Seahawks
Round 9, Pick 102 overall: Motive -- Best TE/RB/WR/QB (perfect spot to grab TE1 or QB2)
1st option: TE Owen Daniels, Texans ... 2nd option: TE Zach Miller, Raiders
Round 10, Pick 115: Motive -- Best QB/RB/WR available (you can never have enough RB depth)
1st option: QB Matt Cassel, Chiefs ... 2nd option: WR Justin Gage, Titans
Round 11, Pick 126: Motive -- Best RB/WR/TE available (DO NOT even think about a D/ST here)
1st option: RB Jamaal Charles, Chiefs ... 2nd option: RB Shonn Greene, Jets
Round 12, Pick 139: Motive -- Best WR/TE/RB available
1st option: WR Earl Bennett, Bears ... 2nd option: WR Nate Washington, Titans
Round 13, Pick 150: Motive -- Best RB/WR/TE/QB available
1st option: RB Michael Bush, Raiders ... 2nd option: TE Brent Celek, Eagles
Round 14, Pick 163: Motive -- Best TE/RB/WR available (you have permission to draft a kicker)
1st option: TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions ... 2nd option: PK Nate Kaeding, Chargers
Round 15, Pick 174: Motive -- Best kicker or defense
1st option: PK Ryan Longwell, Vikings ... 2nd option: D/ST Philadelphia Eagles
Round 16, Pick 187: Motive -- Best defense or kicker
1st option: D/ST New York Jets ... 2nd option: PK Matt Prater, Broncos
What Happens In Vegas ...
Have you heard the gleaming (but oh-so-conservative) city of Las Vegas is throwing the biggest fantasy football-related bash in the history of fantasy football-related bashes from Aug. 27-30? In the immortal words of Paul Harvey (or Rich Hall) ... "it's true, it's true." Seriously, in a joint effort with every major hotel along The Strip, Vegas will be hosting Fantasy Football Superdraft 2009 for hardcore (and gambling-minded) fantasy fans and their respective league drafts. With great hotel rates, amazing flight bookings and a chance to meet Stacy Kiebler, Shannon Elizabeth, Gary Dell'Abate, Matthew Berry and Molly Sims ... there's no reason to miss the Blowout of All Fantasy Blowouts (unless you have a previous engagment regarding your actual "engagement party"). But I digress.
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